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Serie A’s biggest match of the weekend is this Sunday and our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has prepared AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction, team news, lineups and fixture preview.
This season the Bergamaschi have been AC Milan’s nemesis as they have already beat them twice, in the league and in Coppa Italia.
A win for Gianpiero Gasperini’s men will see them going only four points behind the Rossoneri.
Our AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction is for a 2-2 draw.
AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction, Team News, Standings and Lineups Preview
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Tip 1: Over 2.5 Goals
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Tip 2: Atalanta Asian Handicap +0.25
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Tip 3: Christian Pulisic Anytime Goalscorer
In this article:
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Team News and Possible Lineups
- The Predicted AC Milan vs Atalanta, Serie A Standings
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Match Stats
- AC Milan Fixtures
- Atalanta Fixtures
- Safer Gambling
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AC Milan vs Atalanta Tip 1: Visitors are in ‘Scudetto’ form
Italy, Serie A, Sunday, February 25th, 19:45 (UK)
Since the last 30 December, Atalanta have started an almost irresistible climb: six wins and a draw (1-1 against Roma at the Olimpico), plus two victories in Coppa Italia, thanks to a total of 19 goals scored in Serie A (24 in all competitions) and only three conceded.
The Bergamaschi are the only ones who have kept the same pace as leaders Inter and have gained points on all their direct rivals for a top-four finish.
The visitors will return to San Siro next Wednesday to face Simone Inzaghi’s team and have a very tough run of fixtures ahead, including the Europa League Round of 16 tie.
But at the moment, no other team in Serie A, apart from Inter, can match the physical and mental strength of Giampiero Gasperini’s men, who run, press and don’t leave their opponents time and space to think.
Atalanta players look very fit and confident: of their 19 goals scored in the last seven games, seven have been produced in the last quarter of an hour of matches.
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Tip 1: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
AC Milan vs Atalanta Tip 2: Rossoneri face their nemesis
The visitors have won both encounters (3-2 in Bergamo and 2-1 at San Siro, in January, in Coppa Italia) this season and could exploit Milan’s defensive problems.
Last Sunday’s defeat in Monza was only the second for the Rossoneri in their previous 15 games, but it highlighted, once again, their inability to defend in transition and control the tempo of games.
Stefano Pioli’s choices to leave out of the starting XI Leao, Pulisic and Giroud did not pay off, and it was only in the second half, when Monza were already 2-0 up, that AC Milan started to produce meaningful attacks.
With Inter eleven points away and a healthy lead on Bologna, currently occupying the fifth position, the Rossoneri will approach this extremely difficult fixture on the back of their Europa League tie against Rennes on Thursday.
Having seen his team’s poor first-half performance in Monza, Pioli won’t afford a big turnover. Therefore, Atalanta’s freshness might play a decisive part.
Eleven teams in Serie A have conceded fewer goals than AC Milan, 31, same as Genoa, but only seven at San Siro, where they’ve already lost four games this season in all competitions.
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Tip 2: Atalanta Asian Handicap +0.25 (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.84
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
AC Milan vs Atalanta Tip 3: ‘Captain America’ to the rescue?
Atalanta holds the record for the number of players who have scored so far in Italy’s top flight: 15 in Serie A (same as Fiorentina) and 19, including the cup competitions.
These are outstanding stats, considering ten goals have been produced by substitutes (the last one was Bakker at the weekend against Sassuolo).
Gasperini can count on a strong squad, enriched by the returns from injuries of Scamacca and Tourè, as well as Lookman from AFCON and the signing of Hien (currently injured) in January.
But, undoubtedly, all eyes will be on Charles De Ketelare, last season a flop at AC Milan, who has scored four times and provided two assists in the previous seven appearances.
Will Rossoneri fans live to regret having let go of the young Belgian?
The man who took his place, Christian Pulisic, has been, alongside Ruben Loftus-Cheek, one of Serie A’s best signings in the summer.
After a couple of difficult seasons at Chelsea, the American international has looked like somebody desperate to reaffirm himself and is set to break his goalscoring record (He has eight goals and seven assists in all competitions).
Pulisic has had 17 shots on target so far in Serie A (second only to Giroud for the Rossoneri), and his runs from the right-hand side (allegedly Atalanta’s weakest), could cause problems to the Bergamaschi, who have only kept three away clean sheets.
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Tip 3: Christian Pulisic Anytime Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 4.33
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 3/10
AC Milan vs Atalanta Prediction odds via bet365 as at 14:40, February 19th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
AC Milan vs Atalanta Team News and Possible Lineups: No turnover for Pioli
Milan’s starting XI will be influenced by their performance on Thursday at Roazhon Park against Rennes in the Europa League.
It is unlikely Stefano Pioli will make many changes, though, considering Jovetic (suspended), Calabria, Kalulu, Tomori and Pobega (all injured) are not available.
In the visitors’ camp, Ruggeri might replace Zappacosta as left wing-back, and De Roon will reclaim his place in the middle with Pasalic dropping to the bench.
“We have seven games in 22 days, but this has happened before with cup fixtures,” said Gianpiero Gasperini after his team’s 3-0 win against Sassuolo.
“We could’ve done without them at this moment, but we are up against six of the first eight or nine teams in a row, plus the Europa League fixture.”
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan, Florenzi, Thiaw, Gabbia, Hernandez; Adli, Bennacer; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Giroud.
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Kolasinac, Djimsiti, Scalvini; Ruggeri, Ederson, De Roon, Holm; Koopmeiners; Miranchuk, De Ketelaere.
The Predicted AC Milan vs Atalanta Serie A Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the AC Milan vs Atalanta, currently 3rd vs 4th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
AC Milan vs Atalanta Standings Prediction
| POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 29.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 87.8 | 24.6 | 63.2 | 93.0 |
| 2 | Juventus | 38 | 23.9 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 57.6 | 25.1 | 32.5 | 80.1 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 38 | 22.5 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 69.7 | 44.2 | 25.5 | 74.7 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 38 | 20.2 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 69.0 | 41.1 | 27.9 | 67.2 |
| 5 | Bologna | 38 | 16.3 | 12.8 | 8.9 | 51.6 | 37.6 | 14.0 | 61.7 |
| 6 | AS Roma | 38 | 17.3 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 61.0 | 44.1 | 16.9 | 60.6 |
| 7 | Lazio | 38 | 17.3 | 8.2 | 12.5 | 46.6 | 38.9 | 7.8 | 60.1 |
| 8 | Napoli | 38 | 17.2 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 56.1 | 44.4 | 11.7 | 60.1 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 16.1 | 7.5 | 14.4 | 54.2 | 47.0 | 7.2 | 55.7 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 11.3 | 36.8 | 35.6 | 1.2 | 53.5 |
| 11 | Genoa | 38 | 10.9 | 11.9 | 15.3 | 37.8 | 48.0 | -10.2 | 44.4 |
| 12 | Monza | 38 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 15.0 | 34.9 | 49.5 | -14.6 | 44.0 |
| 13 | Udinese | 38 | 8.2 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 41.6 | 54.5 | -12.9 | 41.2 |
| 14 | Lecce | 38 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 16.3 | 41.9 | 59.6 | -17.7 | 40.4 |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 38 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 19.3 | 48.4 | 64.6 | -16.1 | 38.7 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 38 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 20.0 | 47.5 | 72.3 | -24.8 | 37.4 |
| 17 | Empoli | 38 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 19.4 | 32.7 | 57.0 | -24.3 | 36.6 |
| 18 | Verona | 38 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 19.1 | 35.5 | 50.9 | -15.4 | 35.1 |
| 19 | Cagliari | 38 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 20.7 | 39.6 | 69.2 | -29.6 | 33.5 |
| 20 | Salernitana | 38 | 4.4 | 9.9 | 23.6 | 32.2 | 74.4 | -42.2 | 23.3 |
Match Stats: AC Milan are used to goal fests
- AC Milan have won the last two matches played at San Siro by 2-0.
The last Atalanta league win at San Siro against AC Milan came in January 2021 (3-0, with goals from Romero, Ilicic and Zapata). - Thirteen out of 25 AC Milan’s games (52%) have produced more than 3.5 goals.
- Fourteen games of the Rossoneri have ended with at least three goals and both teams on the scoresheet.
- Only Getafe (8) have received more red cards than AC Milan (6) in Europe’s top five leagues.
- Olivier Giroud has already contributed to 20 goals (12 goals and 8 assists) in Serie A. AC Milan are the only team with two players who have scored and assisted at least six times (the other one is Pulisic).
AC Milan Fixtures: three difficult away matches
- Vs Lazio (A)
- Vs Empoli (H)
- Vs Verona (A)
- Vs Fiorentina (A)
- Vs Lecce (H)
Atalanta Fixtures: five games against Italy’s elite
- Vs Inter (A)
- Vs Bologna (H)
- Vs Juventus (A)
- Vs Fiorentina (H)
- Vs Napoli (A)
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
