Football | Wednesday, November 16, 2022 7:01 PM (Revised at: Sunday, November 20, 2022 8:37 PM)

2022 World Cup Betting Value Report Cards: Value Bets for all 32 Teams

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bettingexpert Chief Editor

2022 World Cup Betting Value Report Cards

It’s the middle of November. Domestic football finished at the weekend and we’re a few days from the start of a tournament that will play out on the Persian Gulf, nestled in an area that’s about a third of the size of Greater London. It truly will be a World Cup like no other.

But not everything has to change. As with any major event in the football calendar, it’s an opportunity for me to dust off my trusty red pen for the Betting Value Report Cards.

The consistency may provide some comfort but that isn’t the purpose of the BVRC. No, this is all about the value.

How Does it Work?

Regular readers will know by now. The BVRC’s are a way to rank every team participating in a competition based on how much betting value punters can extract from them.

In order to do this, we must first assess what the bookmakers expect from each team. That’s then compared with media expectations, betting trends and my own analysis to form a final judgement. Each team is graded from A+ to F based on how much value is there.

Essentially, I expect the A and B grades to outperform bookmaker expectations and the E and F grades to underperform. My advice is to back the high grades and go against the lower grades. Those in the middle are about where they should be

Past Successes

The Betting Value Report Cards have enjoyed great success since the first edition last year for Euro 2020. Italy were the A+ team then and we all know how that turned out.

Last season’s Premier League Report Cards brought home +55 units of profit and the Champions League version raked in a massive +71.8 units.

The 2022/23 Premier League Report Cards also look well on track to make a decent profit. The stage is set. Let’s get on with it.

Jump to:

Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D	Group E	Group F	Group G	Group H
The Netherlands	Iran	Argentina	Denmark	Germany	Croatia	Brazil	Uruguay
Qatar	Wales	Saudi Arabia	Australia	Japan	Canada	Switzerland	Ghana
Senegal	England	Mexico	Tunisia	Spain	Morocco	Serbia	South Korea
Ecuador	United States	Poland	France	Costa Rica	Belgium	Cameroon	Portugal

The A Grades

Argentina: A+

Recent form is often a key indicator of how a team will get on at a major tournament. If that’s the case, Argentina will feel pretty confident heading into Qatar.

It’s been a fine couple of years for Albicelestes since Lionel Scaloni took the reins in 2018. A semi-final defeat to Brazil in the 2019 Copa America was a setback but one that seemed to drive them. Steady improvement culminated in 2021 for a first Copa America title in 28 years.

Results have only improved since lifting that title. Argentina haven’t lost a match since that 2-0 defeat to Brazil in the 2019 Copa. It was a near-flawless qualification campaign built on what may be amongst the best defensive units Albicelestes have ever had. Argentina conceded eight times in qualifying but five of those came before that 2021 Copa. Since then, Argentina have kept a total of 12 clean sheets in 15 matches.

Argentina have typically struggled to start all of their best attackers at major tournaments. In 2018, Jorge Sampaoli trialled a couple of different formations to get all of Messi, Higuain, Si Maria and Sergio Aguero into the team. Max Meza and Enzo Perez also found starting spots in the group stage.

Sipa US / Alamy Stock Photo

Scaloni has found a way to make it work. Lautaro Martinez has played a lot of football for his country since Scaloni took charge but this attack is built around Messi. It’s worked well. The 35-year-old comes into this tournament in the best goalscoring form of his life for Argentina. Messi has bagged ten in his six appearances for Argentina this year. 25 of the 90 goals he has scored for Argentina were scored since Scaloni took charge in 2018.

It’s a settled team full of spirit and led by Messi on what may be his final chance at this trophy. I expect them to breeze into the knockout stages and last until the very end.

Selection: Argentina to Reach the Final (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 5.00
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 3/10

Argentina 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	6.50	15.4%
Reach Final	5.00	20.0%
Reach Semis	2.63	38.0%
Reach Quarters	1.73	57.8%
Win Group	1.40	71.4%
Qualify Group	1.08	92.6%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Denmark: A

Denmark head into this World Cup as one of the value teams. Everything is clicking for Kasper Hjulmand’s side with key players in form and some impressive recent results. The best of that run came against the world champions and Group rivals, France. The Danes have beaten Les Bleus twice already this year. They’ll be full of confidence ahead of the meeting between the two group favourites on matchday three.

Denmark’s qualification campaign was a roaring success. Nine wins from 10 in Group F and 30 goals scored. They conceded only three times and kept eight clean sheets, the most of any side in Europe when qualifying for this tournament.

A word, of course, must be given to Christian Eriksen. The experienced midfielder looks set to play in his first major tournament since the incident at last year’s European Championships. He’s returned to the fold for his country and is playing a starring role for his club. His quality in midfield cannot be overstated.

But this is a squad full of quality. It’s an organised defence and a solid midfield. The only doubts come further up the field. Martin Braithwaite, Kasper Dolberg, Andreas Cornelius and Mikkel Damsgaard are hardly prolific goalscorers for their respective clubs but improve in Danish red. Andreas Skov Olsen is a threat and should feature out wide.

There is so little time for most teams to embed new players or try out new tactics in warm-up matches. The most successful nations at this competition will most likely have the most settled squads. Most will have little over a week to switch from domestic action to this World Cup.

I get the impression that this Denmark group will be eager to get back together following recent performances and their remarkable qualification campaign. They look like a united bunch and have a palatable draw in front of them. I expect them to top Group D and reach the quarter-finals.

Selection: Denmark to Win Group D (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 4.00
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 4/10

Denmark 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	34.00	2.9%
Reach Final	14.00	7.1%
Reach Semis	6.00	16.7%
Reach Quarters	3.00	33.3%
Win Group	4.00	25.0%
Qualify Group	1.36	73.5%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Iran: A-

I like the look of Iran in this competition. Nobody is giving them a chance in Group B alongside England, the USA and Wales. That feels harsh for a team that has won 15 of their last 19 matches. Admittedly, the majority of those came against fellow sides from the AFC as they finished won eight of 10 matches in the third round.

But Iran have recently played out some matches against sides from other federations. They drew 1-1 with the African champions Senegal back in September. That result came just a few days after a 1-0 victory against this impressive Uruguay side. Those two teams are hardly expected to fight for the trophy in Qatar but are given a far better chance of reaching the latter stages than the Iranians.

Recent results at the World Cup hardly fill me with confidence. Iran are yet to progress from the group stage in six previous attempts. They have the lowest goals-to-game ratio of any side that has played more than 10 matches at the World Cup.

They have often been seen as a source of three easy points for many teams heading into the World Cup. That has been true but things are changing. They put on a good display back in 2018. Despite being drawn in a group containing Spain and Portugal, they still grabbed four points.

They’re out at 4.50 to qualify from Group B. That’s an implied probability of 22.2% which feels very harsh. Especially when compared to their match odds. The bookies give them a 22% chance of qualifying in the outrights but a 47.04% chance of earning at least four points in Group B. That is enough for a place in the knockout stages the majority of the time.

Expect Iran to be tough to beat with few goals for either side. All three of their opponents have struggled to break down teams like this in recent years. I’m not expecting any three or four-goal losses for this Iran side, the majority of whom have been training and playing together for the last few weeks.

Selection: Iran to Qualify from Group B (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 4.50
Provider: BetVictor
Stakes: 4/10

Iran 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	701.00	0.1%
Reach Final	401.00	0.2%
Reach Semis	151.00	0.7%
Reach Quarters	26.00	3.8%
Win Group	21.00	4.8%
Qualify Group	4.50	22.2%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Jump back to top of page

The B Grades

Uruguay: B+

It’s strange watching Uruguay prepare for a major tournament away from the watchful eye of Oscar Tabarez. El Maestro left his post with Uruguay less than a year ago for the incoming Diego Alonso. Things have gone well for La Celeste since then. They won each of the first four qualifying matches under Alonso, results that secured Uruguay’s place in this competition.

His appointment saw a host of changes in personnel and formations. The results cannot be questioned with seven wins from nine under Alonso. The only disappointment was a 1-0 defeat to Iran in a friendly match back in September.

They usually impress at the World Cup. They’ve qualified for four of the last five competitions and made it out of the group stage in each of the last three. Uruguay won all three group matches in 2018 before being eliminated by the eventual winners, France.

The bookmaker expectation here is 2nd spot in Group H behind Portugal. Uruguay are at around 1.45 to qualify for the knockout stages for the fourth consecutive time at the World Cup. It’s 3.10 for them to top the group which is tempting. Uruguay topped their group in 2018 and 2010. The latter was against the odds too. There’s also the fact that Uruguay won 2-1 when they met Portugal in the 2018 World Cup round of 16.

This is a nation that has typically produced plenty of betting value. Since 1998, backing Uruguay in the Asian handicap market in every match has a profit of +7.3%. Backing them in the 1X2 goes up to +27.9%. They were profitable in the 1×2 market in each of the last three editions of the World Cup.

There is quality throughout this squad and experience to guide it. Uruguay will again look to players like Luis Suarez, Edinson Cavani and Diego Godin. But this Uruguay squad has other options ready to step in. Real Madrid’s Fede Valverde looks set to have a breakout tournament after his fine form for Los Blancos. Liverpool’s Darwin Nunez is playing a bigger role for La Celeste now and has found some form in front of goal.

There is plenty of value in backing this team to progress in the competition. They look well priced to reach the quarter-finals at 3.40. A lot of that is down to the fact that the runners-up in Group H will play the winners in G. Most likely, that will be Brazil. With that in mind, 3.10 for them to top the group looks like great value and it’s what I’m backing here.

Selection: Uruguay to Win Group H (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.10
Provider: Unibet
Stakes: 5/10

Uruguay 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	240.00	0.4%
Reach Final	61.00	1.6%
Reach Semis	24.00	4.2%
Reach Quarters	5.50	18.2%
Win Group	3.00	33.3%
Qualify Group	1.45	69.0%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Netherlands: B

Recent form is often a good indicator of how successful a team will be when heading into a major tournament. The Netherlands are one of the form teams in Europe ahead of this World Cup. The Dutch haven’t lost any of their last 15 matches in all competitions.

Qualification was a breeze for them. Eventually. The Dutch struggled in early matches but their fortunes improved after the appointment of Louis Van Gaal. The former Barcelona and Bayern boss is yet to experience defeat during his third stint in charge of the Netherlands. The Dutch won five of seven qualifying matches under Van Gaal, keeping five clean sheets in the process.

This team is capable of scoring goals with a total of 33 in qualifying. That was the third-highest in Europe behind England and Germany. That’s good but they’ve balanced that with a strong defensive unit. They kept clean sheets in five of those seven matches. They have possibly the strongest pool of central defenders in the competition. Virgil Van Dijk, Stefan de Vrij, Nathan Ake, Sven Botman, Daley Blind and Matthijs de Ligt will give Van Gaal plenty of options.

They run into some issues a little further forward. Memphis Depay has a fine record for his country and was the joint-top scorer in European qualifying. Still, only four of his 42 goals for Oranje have come at major tournaments. They have some talented young players in support but this squad isn’t as strong as the previous one Van Gaal took to the 2014 World Cup.

They should top Group A. 1.50 looks very short to me so we need to look elsewhere for the value. Should they top the group, their opponents in the round of 16 will be one of England, USA, Wales or Iran. They should beat those sides, setting them up for a potential clash with Argentina in the quarter-finals. 4.00 for them to be eliminated in the quarter finals looks a decent bet but I’m playing a bit more conservatively here and backing them to reach the quarters at 1.80.

Selection: Netherlands to Reach the Quarter Finals (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.80
Provider: Sky Bet
Stakes: 9/10

Netherlands 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	15.00	6.7%
Reach Final	7.50	13.3%
Reach Semis	3.75	26.7%
Reach Quarters	1.80	55.6%
Win Group	1.50	66.7%
Qualify Group	1.14	87.7%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Croatia: B

Expectations are surprisingly low for 2018’s runners-up. Quintessential tournament dark horses, Croatia are the second seeds to Belgium in Group F. They come into this match as one of the form sides in Europe, losing just once in 15 matches since their elimination from the European Championships last year.

2018 gave them a first-ever final at a major tournament. They’ve qualified for five of the previous six World Cups and have either made it at least as far as the semi-finals or headed out in the group stage.

This will likely be the final World Cup for Croatia’s second golden generation with 37-year-old Luka Modric expected to lead the side out. The next generation is waiting to step in. The pick of the bunch is Josko Gvardiol. The 20-year-old defender should be a starting centre-back for Zlatko Dalic’s side.

Unlike the winners, World Cup runners-up tend to put on a good display four years later. Since 1998, only one of the six World Cup runners-up failed to make the knockout stages. Three have reached the semi-finals.

Croatia aren’t expected to repeat the feat and contest the final in December. As always, we must play the draw. As palatable as a group containing top seed Belgium is, the knockout fixture looks harsh. Qualifiers from Group F will play those from Group E. Get one of the top two spots in their group and Croatia will most likely be rewarded with a knockout match against either Spain or Germany.

A kinder draw and I’d be expecting a late run for this team. Instead, I fancy them to cause yet another upset and beat Belgium to top spot in the group, especially at those odds.

Selection: Croatia to Win Group F (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.50
Provider: William Hill
Stakes: 4/10

Croatia 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	67.00	1.5%
Reach Final	25.00	4.0%
Reach Semis	9.00	11.1%
Reach Quarters	4.50	22.2%
Win Group	3.50	28.6%
Qualify Group	1.50	66.7%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Qatar: B

Few hold much hope for Qatar. The hosts are ranked 50th in the world and every single player in their most recent international squad was playing domestically in the country. They’ve never been too close to qualifying for a World Cup before this one. Qatar finished bottom of their group in the third round of qualifying for Asian nations in 2018. They won just two of their 10 matches at that stage.

Qatar have played a lot of matches in the last few years. They’ve played 36 games since the start of 2021. Most European teams have played a little over half of that. They’ve had some impressive results in that time. A draw with Egypt and wins over Bulgaria and Honduras will give hope. A run of three or four-goal defeats to Portugal, Serbia and the Republic of Ireland won’t.

REUTERS / Alamy Stock Photo

But Qatar have been working towards this for a long time. No side will be better prepared for this World Cup than Qatar. Most nations will be waiting for players in Europe to finish up their domestic action before heading out to the Persian Gulf. These squads will have around a week together to prepare and train. Qatar have had the last two months to prepare. The Qatar Stars League hasn’t played since mid-September, allowing selected players the chance to train and prepare for this tournament.

We must also look at the situation with the rest of the teams in Group A. I’d already picked out Qatar to at least compete with Ecuador for 3rd spot behind Senegal. The injury to talisman Sadio Mane will hurt Senegal’s chances in this group and open up a door for the hosts.

Expectations could scarcely be lower for this team but I think they’ll surprise everyone.

Selection: Qatar to Qualify in Group A (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 5.00
Provider: Paddy Power
Stakes: 4/10

Qatar 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	501.00	0.2%
Reach Final	501.00	0.2%
Reach Semis	81.00	1.2%
Reach Quarters	21.00	4.8%
Win Group	17.00	5.9%
Qualify Group	5.00	20.0%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Germany: B-

I had high hopes for Germany prior to the group stage draw back in April. Germany are the most consistent national team on the planet in major tournaments. That group stage exit from the World Cup in 2018 was the only occasion this century that they’ve failed to make the semi-finals.

The European Championships last year were another disappointment but there’s little doubt that Germany will bounce back. It’s a squad stacked with quality and some of the most exciting young players on the planet. They’re led by a manager who was an assistant coach to Joachim Loew between 2006 and that World Cup success in 2014. Hansi Flick turned to club football and guided Bayern Munich to two Bundesliga title and the Champions League in the space of 18 months before returning to his national team.

Things had been going perfectly for Germany under Flick. They won the first eight matches under him before a disappointing Nations League campaign. They’ve won only one of their last seven matches but have played a spate of difficult fixtures.

But it’s been an overwhelmingly positive period under Flick. He’s named seven of his former Bayern players in the Germany squad including Thomas Muller. The 33-year-old has scored more goals at World Cups than any current international player. He’s six behind former teammate Miroslav Klose and will be eager to claw closer.

But of course, we have to look at the draw. That does affect Germany’s chances of winning this competition. The game against Spain on matchday 2 will most likely decide the eventual group winners. 2nd spot in this group will play the winners of Group F, most likely Belgium or Croatia.

I expect Germany will top this group and get through to the quarter-finals. A fixture with tournament favourites Brazil could be waiting for them so I’m hedging on the Germans getting that far at least. The only reason they haven’t got a higher grade is the shortness of the odds.

Selection: Germany to Reach the Quarter Finals (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.83
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 8/10

Germany 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	12.50	8.0%
Reach Final	6.50	15.4%
Reach Semis	3.25	30.8%
Reach Quarters	1.83	54.6%
Win Group	2.28	43.9%
Qualify Group	1.17	85.5%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Canada: B-

It’s a first World Cup appearance since 1986 for the Canadians and represents a remarkable up-turn in form. Go back a decade and Canada were consistently only winning two or three of their qualification matches in their quest to reach the World Cup. This Canadian team topped the North and Central American with 28 points and just two defeats from 14 matches. They outscored every other side in the competition.

It’s been an outstanding four years for head coach John Herman. Canada were ranked 72nd in the world back in 2018 but are up to 33rd heading into this tournament. He’s helped by a talented group of players. The star of the crop is Bayern Munich’s Alphonso Davies who has returned to fitness and is expected to star for the Maple Leafs. Jonathan David is the standout name up front.

Recent defeats to Uruguay and Honduras are a concern and the bookmakers have low expectations for this team. 4th place is the expectation with their shortest match odds at around 3.30 in that final group game vs Morocco. That feels harsh. I’m not convinced by this Belgium side and think there is definitely a place up for grabs. The togetherness and individual quality in this Canada team are what make me think they have a real chance of reaching the knockout stages in Qatar.

Selection: Canada to Qualify from Group F (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 4.00
Provider: Sky Bet
Stakes: 2/10

Canada 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	501.00	0.2%
Reach Final	251.00	0.4%
Reach Semis	81.00	1.2%
Reach Quarters	21.00	4.8%
Win Group	13.00	7.7%
Qualify Group	4.00	25.0%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Japan: B-

Japan join Germany in Group E and look to have been given an impossible task. They’ll compete with Die Mannschaft and Spain for a spot in the knockout stages. It’s something that seems to come around every eight years.

Japan have qualified for every World Cup since 1998 and have either been eliminated in the group stage or the round of 16 in alternating competitions. It was a round-of-16 exit at the hands of Belgium back in 2018 so history would suggest a group-stage demise in Qatar.

The odds and draw will point to that too. There’s always one group of death at a World Cup. It looks as if Japan have been handed the unfortunate draw of being the third-best team in a group with two tournament favourites. Japan got out of a group featuring Colombia, Senegal and Poland in 2018. France and Germany make tougher competitors for a qualification spot four years later.

The odds reflect that. It’s 5.00 for Japan to even make it out of this group. It feels harsh for a side that comes into this competition in decent form. Japan have lost only two of their last 16 matches. They’ve played some fellow World Cup teams of late and secured wins over the USA and South Korea and a draw with Ecuador. They kept clean sheets in all three of those games. Japan faced Brazil back in June and the sides were only separated by a late penalty.

So there is something to this team. Japan’s squad is stacked with talent from the Premier League, Bundesliga and Ligue 1. They breezed through qualifying and are a far better prospect than Costa Rica.

I’m backing them to qualify from Group E. This isn’t so much an expectation, more a calculated risk based on the odds. You’re not putting 4.50 odds on Japan winning three matches, more like 4.50 on a couple of decent performances and one of Germany or Spain imploding.

Selection: Japan to Qualify from Group E (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 4.50
Provider: Betfred
Stakes: 4/10

Japan 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	426.00	0.2%
Reach Final	201.00	0.5%
Reach Semis	51.00	2.0%
Reach Quarters	15.00	6.7%
Win Group	17.00	5.9%
Qualify Group	4.50	22.2%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

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The C Grades

Saudia Arabia: C+

It’s fair to say that Saudi Arabia haven’t had the best time at World Cups. Including 2022, they’ve qualified for six of the last eight editions of the tournament. Their results make for grim reading. Saudi Arabia won their final match in 2018, beating an uninspiring Egypt team to finish 3rd in Group A. It was their first win for 12 matches at the World Cup. The Saudis conceded 35 times in that run, scoring four in reply.

This squad has a head start over the rest. Like hosts Qatar, the Saudi Arabian players have been together for some time. While many of the nations wait for players from the top European leagues to finish their club duties, this squad has been playing warm-up matches. Saudi Arabia will have played six warm-up matches in the last month to prepare for this competition. They’ve played the United States, Iceland, and Albania, earning decent results in the process.

Expect a solid defensive unit but not too many goals at the other end. It’s hardly a long trip for this group. Qatar shares its only land border with Saudi Arabia so you’d expect that will give an edge to a group of players that all play in the Saudi Professional League.

They’re expected to finish rock bottom of Group C on zero points. That feels unfair given the above factors. A point or three against Poland wouldn’t surprise me but I fear that qualification is a step too far. Still, this bet represents a fair amount of value.

Selection: Saudi Arabia to Finish 3rd in Group C (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 4.33
Provider: BoyleSports
Stakes: 3/10

Saudi Arabia 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	901.00	0.1%
Reach Final	501.00	0.2%
Reach Semis	301.00	0.3%
Reach Quarters	41.00	2.4%
Win Group	34.00	2.9%
Qualify Group	8.00	12.5%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Ghana: C+

If you only look at results in the last six months, Ghana are one of the form teams coming into this World Cup. They’ve won four of their last six matches in 90 minutes and six of their last seven ties after extra time.

There is plenty of talent for the Black Stars. They’ve undergone a period of naturalisation with players. Inaki Williams and Tariq Lamptey declared for Ghana and have since made their debuts. Thomas Partey, Jordan Ayew, Mohammed Salisu and Mohammed Kudus add plenty of quality to this squad.

But the bookies aren’t convinced. They’re out at 3.75 to qualify for the knockout stage which feels a little harsh. Ghana have typically been a good team to back in betting markets at the World Cup. Going back to 1998, backing the Black Stars on the Asian handicap in every match has returns of +8.4%. It’s fair to say that this Ghana side is stronger than either one that played in 2014 or 2010.

I’m also not convinced by the rest of the teams in this group. It’s probably the tightest in the competition but the bookmakers still have Portugal and Uruguay as clear frontrunners. That means value for the other teams.

Selection: Ghana to Qualify from Group H (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.75
Provider: BetVictor
Stakes: 2/10

Ghana 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	501.00	0.2%
Reach Final	501.00	0.2%
Reach Semis	101.00	1.0%
Reach Quarters	17.00	5.9%
Win Group	16.00	6.3%
Qualify Group	3.75	26.7%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Brazil: C+

Brazil enter as tournament favourites, something that is often more of a curse than a blessing. It’s rarely the right approach to back the favourites for a World Cup but this Brazil side really does seem to have the lot. A strong squad with depth in every position. There’s a mixture of silk in attack and steel at the back in Tite’s team.

This is a side that finished runners-up at the 2021 Copa America after going all the way in 2019. That success hasn’t translated to the World Cup. Brazil have failed to make the World Cup semi-finals in each of the last four editions of the tournament. That’s the longest they’ve ever gone without reaching the final four of this competition.

Of course, things will have to improve after their showing in 2018. A quarter-final exit to Belgium came after a pretty comfortable group stage. That brought about a major change in Brazil’s fortunes. They’ve only lost one competitive match since that quarter-final defeat in 2018. That sole loss was in the Copa America final last year.

The next few generations of Brazilian talent are in this squad. We have players in their mid-20s like Bruno Guimaraes, Richarlison and Raphinha alongside younger stars like Antony and Gabriel Martinelli. It’s a solid, experienced defence and two of the best goalkeepers on the planet to choose from.

REUTERS / Alamy Stock Photo

The bookies are expecting a stellar showing in Qatar. They’re as short as 4.50 to win the competition with some bookmakers. It’s around 1.44 for them to win Group G, the joint-highest of any team to win their group.

But it’s not all good news for Selecao. Historically, they haven’t been a strong side to bet on at the World Cup. It’s been more profitable to back them to lose than win on the Asian handicap market in two of the last three World Cups.

I also have some doubts about their recent record. Brazil have spent much of the last four years in isolation. They haven’t played a side from Europe since March 2019 – a 3-1 win over the Czech Republic. Before then, it was Belgium in the World Cup quarters. When you consider that European sides have made up 12 of the last 16 World Cup semi-finalists, there is an issue.

The only other side in South America that can seriously compete with Brazil right now is Argentina. Selecao have failed to score in each of their last three matches against their old rivals.

They can’t be written off. I still expect Brazil to qualify from Group G with ease. They were drawn with Serbia and Switzerland back in 2018 and breezed through that group. I envisage a late push but it feels a little premature to expect this squad to reach the heights of the Brazil sides some 20 years ago.

Selection: Brazil to Reach Quarter Finals (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.50
Provider: Betway
Stakes: 10/10

Brazil 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	5.00	20.0%
Reach Final	3.50	28.6%
Reach Semis	2.20	45.5%
Reach Quarters	1.50	66.7%
Win Group	1.44	69.4%
Qualify Group	1.10	90.9%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Spain: C+

Nobody fancied Spain at the European Championships last year. Luis Enrique’s side were written off as longshots from a fairly early stage. La Roja upset the odds on their way to the semi finals and I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if they did the same here.

One thing that should be a certainty is Spain’s control of the football. They dominated possession at Euro 2020 and did the same in their qualification campaign for Qatar. Spain had an average possession of 76%, the highest of any European nation during qualifying. They also allowed their opponents fewer shots on Unai Simon’s goal than any other side. 19 points from eight matches was a convincing haul.

It’s a strong squad. La Liga may not be as strong as it was a decade ago during La Roja’s dominance but there is plenty of quality in this team. As with the Spanish team of a decade ago, they have a wealth of options in midfield. So much so that a trio of Rodri, Koke and Gavi could easily serve as backup.

Goals will be a slight issue. They scored one goal or fewer in four of their six matches at the European Championships last year. Alvaro Morata, Ferran Torres and Pablo Sarabia are hardly pulling up trees for their club sides.

I expect them to qualify in 2nd from Group E and then show their class in the knockout stages. I’ll take 1.73 for them to reach the quarter-finals.

Selection: Spain to Reach the Quarter-Finals (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.73
Provider: BetVictor
Stakes: 9/10

Spain 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	10.00	10.0%
Reach Final	5.50	18.2%
Reach Semis	3.00	33.3%
Reach Quarters	1.73	57.8%
Win Group	1.97	50.8%
Qualify Group	1.14	87.7%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Switzerland: C

2022 marks the fifth consecutive World Cup that Switzerland have qualified for. It’s the longest run in the nation’s history and things have gone well in the second half of that streak. Along with France and Belgium, Switzerland are the only nation to have reached the knockout stages in each of the last four World Cups and European Championships.

Ironically, it was against France that Switzerland had their best tournament moment in decades. They dumped the favourites out of Euro 2020. That was the only time since 1954 that Switzerland have gone beyond the first knockout round of a major tournament.

The expectation is something similar here. They’re the second favourites in Group G behind the bookies’ pick, Brazil. Qualification is priced at around 2.05, just ahead of main rivals Serbia.

Preparation for this competition has been good. Switzerland have won each of their last three competitive matches. That includes wins over Spain and Portugal. The latter put an end to a run of four defeats in five for the Swiss who have certainly shown inconsistency at times in recent years.

This is a settled team. Their defensive record has improved since manager Murat Yakin took over in August 2021. The Swiss have conceded one goal or fewer in 12 of 15 matches under Yakin. They kept clean sheets in five of six qualification matches under Yakin.

That’s built Switzerland’s position as the group’s second-favourites which is justified. They’ve also been a little underrated by the bookmakers historically. Backing Switzerland on the Asian handicap market in every World Cup match since 1998 would have created a +20.90 profit. They’ve been profitable in three of the last four World Cup tournaments and I expect another one here.

Selection: Switzerland to Qualify from Group G (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.05
Provider: Betfred
Stakes: 7/10

Switzerland 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	131.00	0.8%
Reach Final	51.00	2.0%
Reach Semis	13.00	7.7%
Reach Quarters	5.00	20.0%
Win Group	7.00	14.3%
Qualify Group	2.05	48.8%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Australia: C

The Socceroos arrive in Qatar for what will be their fifth successive appearance at a World Cup and sixth overall. Australia were the penultimate team to secure their spot in the competition. A penalty shootout win over Peru secured spot number 31 for Australia in the intercontinental play-off.

Australia will line up against some familiar foes in Group D. Two of the teams they’ll face in Qatar were in their group back in Russia 2018. Australia competed with Denmark and France four years ago and put in a couple of good performances. An 80th-minute own goal against eventual-winners France was all that prevented the Socceroos from taking two points from the two matches.

A similar couple of performances here would give them a great chance of reaching the knockout stages of the World Cup for the first time since 2006. The big concern is the fitness of midfielder Ajdin Hrustic. He hasn’t played for club Hellas Verona in Serie A since picking up an ankle injury in mid-October.

Regardless, Australia should have enough to put on a decent display in Qatar. They’ve got a better chance of qualifying than those 5.50 odds suggest but I’m not confident enough to back that. Instead, I’m counting on them to beat Tunisia on matchday two.

Selection: Australia to Beat Tunisia (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.70
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 4/10

Australia 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	701.00	0.1%
Reach Final	501.00	0.2%
Reach Semis	126.00	0.8%
Reach Quarters	29.00	3.4%
Win Group	26.00	3.8%
Qualify Group	5.50	18.2%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Wales: C-

There isn’t much between Wales and USA in Group B. The bookies expect the two teams to compete for 2nd spot behind England and that opening match between the two on November 21st will have a big say on the race.

It’s a first World Cup appearance for the Welsh since 1958. The 1-0 win over Ukraine back in June secured what may well be a final swansong for this generation. Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey are both approaching their mid-30s and plying their trade at a lower level. For Bale, there’s a feeling that this is what he’s been working towards. It’s probably not a coincidence that LAFC’s schedule lined up as perfect preparation for the World Cup. Wales, Golf, LA.

They aren’t the same players and this isn’t the same Wales team that reached the semi-finals of the 2016 European Championships. Rob Page’s side lost five out of six in the recent Nations League campaign – although four of those six fixtures came against the Netherlands and Belgium. The two defeats against Poland will be a little more concerning for Rob Page.

But we’ve been here before. Wales have a habit of pulling out top performances at the most important times. Team spirit has been their secret weapon in the last decade and with just a week of warm-up time for most nations, that could be even more powerful in Qatar.

They’re at 2.25 to qualify for the knockout stage. A lot of that is down to the fact that they’re the slight outsiders for the match with their main rivals for 2nd spot, the USA. It’s difficult to find much value in this team but they’re rated about fairly. A round of 16 elimination is pretty good value with low stakes. Should they get there, they’d likely play a Netherlands side that beat them twice in the Nations League this year. That’s a step too far.

Selection: Wales Eliminated in the Round of 16 (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.50
Provider: Paddy Power
Stakes: 2/10

Wales 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	290.00	0.3%
Reach Final	101.00	1.0%
Reach Semis	41.00	2.4%
Reach Quarters	7.00	14.3%
Win Group	7.50	13.3%
Qualify Group	2.38	42.0%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

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The D Grades

Mexico: D+

Few nations are as consistent at the World Cup as Mexico. El Tri have lived their own Groundhog Day at the Mundial since USA ‘94. Initial optimism, exciting group stage matches with a win or two followed by a swift exit in the round of 16.

Expectations here are largely the same. They’re the slight favourites for 2nd spot in Group C ahead of Poland. The runners-up in C play the winners of Group D in the round of 16. The bookies expect that to be the holders, France. No easy task considering Mexico’s recent results.

Former Barcelona boss Tata Martino has led El Tri since 2019 but the initial optimism has long since gone. Mexico have tested themselves in higher-profile friendlies in recent months. Defeats to Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia will hardly convince the fans that the fourth match curse at World Cups is about to end.

There’s doubt they’ll even play a fourth match but over 40,000 Mexican fans are expected to head to Qatar to see if they can. The bookies expect 2nd spot in Group D behind Argentina. It’s hard to disagree but those odds are a little short. Another round of 16 exit looks a lot better.

Selection: Mexico Eliminated in the Round of 16 (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.00
Provider: Coral
Stakes: 4/10

Mexico 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	210.00	0.5%
Reach Final	56.00	1.8%
Reach Semis	21.00	4.8%
Reach Quarters	6.00	16.7%
Win Group	6.00	16.7%
Qualify Group	1.91	52.4%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Serbia: D+

Group G is a little diamond-shaped at this World Cup. Brazil are clearly above the rest with Cameroon below. That leaves Switzerland and Serbia somewhere in the middle, locked in a fairly even battle for 2nd spot. The bookies slightly favour Switzerland in this battle and I think they’ve got it just about right.

This Serbia team is stacked with quality. There’s no doubting that or the fight of a side that beat Portugal 2-1 in Lisbon last year to secure top spot in the qualification group. Results are good with four wins from five in the Nations League heading into this tournament.

The quality is higher up the pitch. Aleksandar Mitrovic has enjoyed a fine season in the Premier League and Dusan Vlahovic remains the attacking focal point for Juventus. Dusan Tadic, Filip Kostic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic complete a strong midfield.

But we’ve been here before with Serbia. The Eagles have boasted impressive qualification campaigns and star players before. That was the case at the 2018 and 2010 World Cups and they headed out at the group stage. There is also concern about the condition of Serbia’s current stars. Mitrovic and Vlahovic are both carrying injuries. The Juventus man hasn’t played for his club since October 25th after suffering a groin injury.

The betting history isn’t kind to Serbia either. Going back to 1998, the Eagles have been a poor side to back. Backing them to win in the Asian handicap market would have led to a return of -52.2%. They’ve been in the red in all four World Cups they’ve qualified for in that time – with Montenegro and independently.

Selection: Serbia to Finish 3rd in Group G (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.88
Provider: Betway
Stakes: 5/10

Serbia 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	126.00	0.8%
Reach Final	51.00	2.0%
Reach Semis	14.00	7.1%
Reach Quarters	6.00	16.7%
Win Group	7.50	13.3%
Qualify Group	2.25	44.4%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Costa Rica: D

It’s rare to see such odds in a World Cup group. Costa Rica are way out at 16.00 to even qualify from Group E in Qatar. That’s down to the competition with Germany and Spain for company. Even if the Costa Ricans can overcome one of those European sides, a solid Japanese team is waiting.

So, it looks like an uphill battle for a nation that has only made it out of the group stage twice in five World Cups. They missed out on an automatic qualification spot on goal difference and settle for a place in the inter-confederation play-offs. Costa Rica were the final side to qualify for Qatar 2022 with that 1-0 win over New Zealand back in June.

The bookies are expecting three defeats for this team in the groups. You won’t find odds shorter than 10.00 for them to get a win in either of their games against Spain and Germany. They’re at around 4.60 to get the three points against Japan which again, looks a little long.

It’s half-tempting to back them to qualify at 16.00. They look like the weakest side in the group by some distance but those odds feel a little harsh. Still, I can’t back them with much confidence so instead, the value pick is them holding up Group E.

Selection: Costa Rica to Finish Bottom of Group E (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.54
Provider: 10Bet
Stakes: 8/10

Costa Rica 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	1001.00	0.1%
Reach Final	501.00	0.2%
Reach Semis	251.00	0.4%
Reach Quarters	51.00	2.0%
Win Group	71.00	1.4%
Qualify Group	16.00	6.3%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Senegal: D

African champions Senegal come into this World Cup with the weight of expectation. It’s a squad stacked with quality from Edouard Mendy in goals to Kalidou Koulibaly in defence and plenty of talent up top.

It will be the nation’s third appearance at the World Cup and the second in a row after a group-stage elimination in 2018. They finished 3rd in Group H, level with Japan in 2nd on points, goal difference and head-to-head results. They only left the competition with inferior Fair Play Points.

The Lions of Teranga have a more palatable draw this time around. They’re in Group A alongside hosts Qatar, top seed the Netherlands and their likeliest challengers for qualification, Ecuador.

Senegal are the second favourites at around 2.00 to secure qualification. That’s a 50% implied probability which feels about fair. Looking at the match odds, they’re at 67.5% chance of earning at least four points in Group A. That looks fair with fixtures against Qatar and Ecuador. The 2.70 odds for them to beat the South American team on Matchday 3 looks like a solid bet. Senegal have risen to the big occasions in recent years have the superior squad.

Manager Aliou Cisse has got them to two World Cups and two AFCON finals in the last five years. They undid the heartbreak of finishing runners-up at AFCON 2019 by winning the tournament two years later. The injury to Sadio Mane will hurt their chances with no adequate replacement to be found. They’re still the favourites for qualification which feels a little strong. I’d back them to beat Ecuador but not much more.

Selection: Senegal to Beat Ecuador (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.70
Provider: Betfair
Stakes: 4/10

Senegal 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	140.00	0.7%
Reach Final	51.00	2.0%
Reach Semis	14.00	7.1%
Reach Quarters	5.50	18.2%
Win Group	5.70	17.5%
Qualify Group	2.00	50.0%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

England: D

England’s are hoping that the third time will be the charm for Gareth Southgate at major tournaments. The Three Lions have enjoyed their most successful run for several decades at major tournaments since Southgate took charge. They’re one of the bookies’ favourites and past results point to success here. Recent form suggests otherwise.

It’s been a dire few months for the Three Lions. They didn’t win any of their six matches during that cursed Nations League run. They scored four goals and three of them came in that 3-3 draw with Germany back in September. They had no such problem in qualifying with eight wins from 10 and 39 goals scored. That was the highest in European qualifying.

London, UK. 26th Sep, 2022. Harry Maguire of England looks dejected after his side concede their first goal to make the score 0-1 during the UEFA Nations League Group C match between England and Germany at Wembley Stadium on September 26th 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Daniel Chesterton/phcimages.com) Credit: PHC Images/Alamy Live News

PHC Images / Alamy Stock Photo

Injuries could hurt this team. Kyle Walker is a doubt as he continues his rehabilitation from injury. Only Harry Kane has played more minutes than Walker for England since Gareth Southgate took charge. Ben Chilwell will miss out while Reece James and Kalvin Phillips are doubts for the tournament.

But England should still have enough to top Group B. Wales and the United States offer their biggest threats with Iran the bottom seed. Top spot will give them a round-of-16 tie with the 2nd-placed team in Group A – potentially Senegal. After that, there is a potential clash with France in the quarter-finals. That looks like the likeliest off-ramp for this stuttering England team. Backing that exit provides plenty of value.

Selection: England Eliminated in the Quarter-Finals (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.50
Provider: BetVictor
Stakes: 2/10

England 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	10.50	9.5%
Reach Final	5.25	19.0%
Reach Semis	2.90	34.5%
Reach Quarters	1.57	63.7%
Win Group	1.44	69.4%
Qualify Group	1.10	90.9%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

South Korea: D

South Korea arrive in Qatar with much of their hopes pinned on captain and star player, Son Heung-Min. The Spurs man is amongst the best players in the competition but arrives in Qatar out of form and recovering from a facial injury. He’s back in training but could play with a protective mask.

It’s the 10th consecutive World Cup tournament that South Korea will take part in. It’s a fine achievement but the usual story is one of disappointment. The Reds were eliminated in the group stage in seven of those nine previous tournament appearances. They’ll hope to build on that final match in the 2018 group stage. The 2-0 win over Germany was their first since 2010 and cost Joachim Loew’s side a spot in the knockout rounds.

South Korea will hope for an improvement after their best qualification campaign for decades. They played 16, won 12 and scored 35 times in the process. There are, of course, caveats. The Reds historically don’t travel well. They’ve only lost one match in Korea in the last four years and that was against Brazil. They also made it all the way to the semi-finals of the World Cup when they hosted back in 2002.

It’s a different story on the road. Their form drops off a cliff away from home, especially in matches in Europe and the Americas. That doesn’t bode well for a competition played entirely on foreign soil. Half of the total wins South Korea accumulated at the World Cup occurred during that 2002 tournament they joint-hosted.

Their historical betting data makes for grim reading. Since 1998, they’ve been unprofitable to back in the Asian handicap market at the World Cup. They’re profitable in the 1X2 but the vast majority of that profit came as a result of the win over Germany in 2018.

I’m not expecting much from this team. A group stage exit is the likeliest outcome but at odds of around 1.36, that’s hardly value. I’m looking elsewhere and the goals market stands out. I’m not expecting this South Korea side to score too many goals in the groups.

Ghana, Portugal and Uruguay all have pretty solid defensive records in recent months while South Korea have struggled. They bagged a total of three goals each at the 2014 and 2018 World Cups in what were weaker groups. Son will be the main goal threat so the fact that he isn’t 100% fit brings some weight to this selection.

Selection: South Korea Under 2.5 Group Goals (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.90
Provider: Betway
Stakes: 7/10

South Korea 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	551.00	0.2%
Reach Final	251.00	0.4%
Reach Semis	71.00	1.4%
Reach Quarters	15.00	6.7%
Win Group	15.00	6.7%
Qualify Group	3.75	26.7%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Tunisia: D

It’s a fifth World Cup appearance in seven tournaments and a sixth overall for Tunisia. The African nation is usually pretty consistent and the bookies expect the same outcome here. Tunisia have been eliminated in the group stage on all five previous attempts at the World Cup. They’ve won only two of their 15 matches in that time.

Tunisia had a fairly comfortable qualification campaign. They got past main rivals Equatorial Guinea in Group B and then beat Mali over two legs to secure one of the five qualification spots awarded to African nations.

Expect them to lean heavily on the talents of Wahbi Khazri. The former Sunderland man is a reliable goalscorer from midfield in Ligue 1 and either scored or assisted four of the five goals Tunisia scored at Russia 2018. But the Eagles’ captain will also be confident ahead of this tournament. Youssef Msakni has played his football in the Qatar Stars League. Now with Al-Arabi, Msakni won’t be fazed by the location.

Expectations are low. A sixth group-stage exit is what the bookies expect and it’s hard to disagree.

Selection: Tunisia to Finish Bottom of Group D (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.15
Provider: Unibet
Stakes: 8/10

Tunisia 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	901.00	0.1%
Reach Final	501.00	0.2%
Reach Semis	126.00	0.8%
Reach Quarters	29.00	3.4%
Win Group	26.00	3.8%
Qualify Group	6.00	16.7%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Morocco: D-

Morocco aren’t getting much of a chance with the bookies in Group F. They’re the third-favourites for qualification ahead of Canada after a near-flawless qualification campaign. They breezed through the group stage with six wins from six before a 5-2 aggregate win over DR Congo to earn one of the five qualification spots for African teams.

They were there in 2018. Morocco propped up Group B in the end with one point from three matches. They’ve since found some form, losing only three of their last 39 matches in all competitions. It’s a squad with some star quality. Namely, Achraf Hakimi of PSG and Chelsea’s Hakim Ziyech who was a surprise inclusion in the Morocco squad. The winger had a very public fall-out with former manager Vahid Halilhodzic, even announcing his retirement prior to the manager’s dismissal in August.

The form is impressive but the quality of the opposition raises some doubts. They haven’t played a European side since the 2018 World Cup. A 3-0 defeat to the USA back in June could reflect where they are against fellow World Cup teams. They’re a shorter price than Canada to upset the odds and sneak a qualifying spot in Group E. That feels a little generous so I’m going against this side and their rookie manager.

Selection: Morocco To Finish Bottom of Group F (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.50
Provider: Betway
Stakes: 4/10

Morocco 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	301.00	0.3%
Reach Final	201.00	0.5%
Reach Semis	41.00	2.4%
Reach Quarters	14.00	7.1%
Win Group	11.00	9.1%
Qualify Group	3.25	30.8%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

United States: D-

The United States arrive at this World Cup eager to impress ahead of their turn to host in four years. It will be their first appearance at the finals since 2014. USA were ever-presents between 1990 and 2014 and they usually produce some memorable moments. The USMNT have only been knocked out in the group stage once in their previous four World Cup appearances.

This is a far better squad of players than some of the teams they’ve taken to World Cups in the last few decades. USA could name a strong squad of players using only those who play in Europe. They have representatives at AC Milan, Juventus, Chelsea and Arsenal.

But I have less confidence in those behind the scenes. The results haven’t lived up to expectations of late. They’ve won just one of four recent friendly matches against sides competing at this World cup. The defeat to Japan and the 0-0 draw with Saudi Arabia in September were the poorest results in that run.

They’re still the favourites to reach the knockout stage. The US have a young team with plenty of quality but recent results aren’t representative of a side set for a deep run at this tournament. I’m expecting a disappointing showing followed by four years of soul-searching ahead of their turn to host in 2026.

Selection: USA to Not Qualify from Group B (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.75
Provider: Betway
Stakes: 7/10

United States 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	52.00	1.9%
Reach Final	23.00	4.3%
Reach Semis	10.00	10.0%
Reach Quarters	3.40	29.4%
Win Group	6.50	15.4%
Qualify Group	2.10	47.6%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Cameroon: D-

It’s a return to the big time for Cameroon after missing out in 2018. Rigobert Song’s side got through in extraordinary circumstances after a 124th-minute winner in their third round tie qualification tie with Algeria. It was a fine achievement for Song who had only taken the job a month prior.

It’s the second stint in charge of his nation for the former-Liverpool defender. It’s been a mixed bag in terms of results. They’ve lost three of five games since that incredible win over Algeria. Defeat to South Korea was understandable, losses to Equatorial Guinea and Uzbekistan were a little more disappointing.

This side has potential, of course. The pair of Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting and Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa has plenty of experience at top European clubs. Captain Vincent Aboubakar was the top goalscorer at AFCON 2021 and has played in the Middle East for the last year with Saudi side Al Nassr.

Still, it’s hard to see them getting far in this difficult group. The bookies have them finishing 4th and it’s hard to disagree. Backing them to win in the Asian handicap market in World Cups since 1998 has returns of -71.5%. They’ve been one to avoid for a long while and I don’t see it changing in Qatar.

Selection: Cameroon to Finish Bottom of Group G (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.80
Provider: Paddy Power
Stakes: 8/10

Cameroon 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	551.00	0.2%
Reach Final	301.00	0.3%
Reach Semis	81.00	1.2%
Reach Quarters	26.00	3.8%
Win Group	28.00	3.6%
Qualify Group	5.00	20.0%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

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The E Grades

Portugal: E+

Portugal look a little overpriced heading into this World Cup. It’s the fourth major tournament under manager Fernando Santos. It’s highly unlikely that Santos would still be in the job were it not for the success in his first major tournament.

Victory at Euro 2016 was obviously the highlight of Santos’ time in charge of Seleção das Quinas. It’s important to remember that the success was followed by two early exits at the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020. The Portuguese were sent packing in the round of 16 in both tournaments after winning only one of their four matches in each.

Qualification for this World Cup hardly convinces that Santos is getting the best out of a talented squad. Portugal relied on the European play-offs to get this far. A late goal in their final group match against Serbia cost them top spot and an automatic place in this competition. Failure to reach Qatar would have likely eliminated Santos’s credit in the bank.

The expectation is 1st place in Group H and a place in the quarters. A round-of-16 match, likely against one of Switzerland or Serbia awaits the winner of Group H. It’s a tight match-up and a tough group before that stage.

For a while, Portugal haven’t looked like a team capable of grinding out the results necessary for tournament success. They’ll either win by two, three or four goals in a comfortable victory or just fail to win the game. Recent defeats to Spain, Serbia and Switzerland don’t bode well considering Portugal could play at least two of those sides in the knockout stages.

It doesn’t look like a happy camp. Controversy over Cristiano Ronaldo’s recent behaviour will hang over Portugal heading into this tournament. I have a feeling they could buckle under the pressure in a tough group. The fortunate success in 2016 has hidden the gradual decline of this team under this manager.

Selection: Portugal Not to Qualify from Group H (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 5.00
Provider: Paddy Power
Stakes: 2/10

Portugal 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	19.00	5.3%
Reach Final	7.50	13.3%
Reach Semis	4.00	25.0%
Reach Quarters	2.00	50.0%
Win Group	1.73	57.8%
Qualify Group	1.20	83.3%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

France: E

The reigning champions France are amongst the favourites to go all the way again this time around. You can get odds of 8.25 for Les Bleus to add a third star to their badge in Qatar. They’re alongside Denmark, Tunisia and Australia in what looks like a palatable draw in Group D.

But it may not be smooth sailing. Injuries have decimated Didier Deschamps’ squad. We won’t see anything close to the team that lifted this trophy in Russia four years ago. The midfield pair that started the final in Russia will miss out this time. N’Golo Kante and Paul Pogba are both out of the tournament while others like Raphael Varane and Lucas Hernandez are injury doubts. Jules Kounde and Boubacar Kamara are also recovering from injuries.

France head to Qatar aiming to beat the curse of defending champions at a World Cup. Things haven’t gone well for teams four years after lifting this illustrious trophy. Four of the last five reigning champions were eliminated in the group stage of the preceding tournament.

REUTERS / Alamy Stock Photo

There is plenty of value in backing against reigning champions too. Since 1998, we’re looking at +38.2% ROI by backing against the reigning champions in the Asian handicap market. The bookies have France down as favourites for all of their matches in Group D. That feels generous for a team that has won one of its last six matches. France were also booted out of Euro 2020 in the round of 16 after winning just one match.

This isn’t the same squad that lifted the title in 2018. Didier Deschamps is struggling to find balance in a team featuring Kylian Mbappe, Karim Benzema and Antoine Griezmann. The defence and midfield injuries are a definite concern, as is a lack of experience. Their odds are far too short for this competition. 1.50 for them to win the group over a Denmark side that beat them convincingly less than two months ago is not an attractive option. Finishing behind the Danes is something I can get behind.

Selection: France to Finish 2nd in Group D (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.75
Provider: BoyleSports
Stakes: 3/10

France 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	8.50	11.8%
Reach Final	4.50	22.2%
Reach Semis	2.75	36.4%
Reach Quarters	1.57	63.7%
Win Group	1.50	66.7%
Qualify Group	1.08	92.6%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Ecuador: E

Ecuador take on Qatar in that dreaded opening match against a host nation. No side has ever beaten the host nation of a World Cup in their opening fixture of the tournament. We’ve had plenty of upsets in that time too but Ecuador come into it as the favourites.

Expect a dull match. Ecuador don’t score too many goals – there were a total of three in their six warm-up friendlies coming into this one. They haven’t scored more than once in any of their last 10 matches in all competitions. Three consecutive 0-0 draws coming into this tournament does little to inspire faith in this team.

There are some bright sparks in this team. Expect invention from the attacking left-back, Pervis Estupinan. He created more chances than any other defender in South American qualifying. Brighton teammates Moises Caicedo and Jeremy Sarmiento should impress in midfield. Familiar name Enner Valencia captains the team up top but the main goal threat these days is Michael Estrada.

Their qualification hopes will surely rest on the matches against Senegal and Qatar. I give them little hope in the former and quite fancy the hosts in the latter.

Selection: Ecuador to Finish Bottom in Group A (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 4.00
Provider: Coral
Stakes: 3/10

Ecuador 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	280.00	0.4%
Reach Final	81.00	1.2%
Reach Semis	41.00	2.4%
Reach Quarters	7.00	14.3%
Win Group	7.00	14.3%
Qualify Group	2.10	47.6%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

Poland: E-

I’m not feeling a lot of confidence in Poland this year. The expectation is that they’ll challenge Mexico for 2nd spot in Group C behind Argentina. Three points against Saudi Arabia are seemingly a guarantee at odds of around 1.65. That matchday 1 showdown with Mexico should settle matters with the odds split straight down the middle.

Much hope is placed on 34-year-old Robert Lewandowski who has typically struggled at major tournaments. He bagged three goals at Euro 2020 but those were three of the five he has scored in 14 major tournament appearances for his country.

But historically, Poland are the team to avoid in the betting markets for the World Cup. Backing them to win in the 1X2 since 1998 would give you -2.2% returns and to win in the Asian handicap market would be -40.1%. There’s far more value going against them. Backing Poland to lose in the Asian handicap market would lead to a total of profit of +25.1%.

And recent results hardly point to a side in form. They’ve lost three of their last five – the sole win came against a patchwork Wales team back in September. The bookies’ suggestion of a tussle for 2nd spot with Mexico feels a little generous for these perennial underachievers.

Selection: Poland to Not Qualify from Group C (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.80
Provider: Betway
Stakes: 8/10

Poland 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	240.00	0.4%
Reach Final	67.00	1.5%
Reach Semis	41.00	2.4%
Reach Quarters	7.00	14.3%
Win Group	6.50	15.4%
Qualify Group	2.00	50.0%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

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The F Grades

Belgium: F

It’s a failing grade for Belgium. The Red Devils are ranked 2nd in the world and are as short at 13.00 with some bookmakers to lift the trophy in Qatar. This golden generation has made it at least as far as the quarter-finals in four successive tournaments.

It’s an established team of big-name players. Eight of the 10 most-capped players in Belgium’s history are still a part of the squad. Experience is hardly in short supply but perhaps that’s part of the problem.

We haven’t seen many changes to the team that was knocked out in the quarter finals of the European Championships last year. Amadou Onana and Zeno Debast have injected some much-needed freshness but the bulk of the hope rests on the shoulders of the old guard.

That’s no problem for players like Thibaut Courtois and Kevin De Bruyne. They continue to shine for top European clubs but the same isn’t true for everyone. Romelu Lukaku and Eden Hazard have both struggled with injuries and form in recent years. The pair has played fewer than 500 league minutes between them for their respective clubs this season. Hazard will captain Belgium but has scored only one goal for them in the last three calendar years.

Recent results point to an inflated reputation for Belgium. Granted, they’ve only lost five of their last 14 competitive matches. But fixtures have been kind to them in the Nations League and the final qualifiers for this tournament. They’ve hoovered up wins against teams like Estonia, Belarus, Poland and Wales but lost heavily to the Netherlands, Italy and France.

They’re a tier below the rest of the top challengers from Europe and I think qualification will be a lot harder than many people think. Belgium are due a reset and it could come here in what could well be the final major tournament for Roberto Martinez.

Selection: Belgium Not to Qualify from Group F (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 6.00
Provider: BoyleSports
Stakes: 4/10

Belgium 2022 World Cup Odds	Best Odds	Implied Probability
Winner	20.00	5.0%
Reach Final	9.00	11.1%
Reach Semis	4.00	25.0%
Reach Quarters	2.20	45.5%
Win Group	1.73	57.8%
Qualify Group	1.17	85.5%

Best odds available as at 07:00 on 17th November 2022. Odds may now differ

2022 World Cup Best Bets

TEAM	GRADE	BEST BET	ODDS	STAKES	BOOKMAKER
Argentina	A+	Reach Final	5.00	3/10	bet365
Denmark	A	Win Group D	4.00	4/10	bet365
Iran	A-	Qualify in Group B	4.50	4/10	BetVictor
Uruguay	B+	Win Group H	3.10	5/10	Unibet
Netherlands	B	Reach Quarters	1.80	9/10	Sky Bet
Croatia	B	Win Group F	3.50	4/10	William Hill
Qatar	B	Qualify in Group A	5.00	4/10	Paddy Power
Germany	B-	Reach Quarters	1.83	8/10	bet365
Canada	B-	Qualify in Group F	4.00	2/10	Sky Bet
Japan	B-	Qualify in Group E	4.50	2/10	Betfred
Saudia Arabia	C+	Finish 3rd in Group C	4.33	3/10	BoyleSports
Ghana	C+	Qualify in Group H	3.75	2/10	BetVictor
Brazil	C+	Reach Quarters	1.50	10/10	Betway
Spain	C+	Reach Quarters	1.73	9/10	BetVictor
Switzerland	C	Qualify in Group G	2.05	7/10	Betfred
Australia	C	Beat Tunisia	2.70	4/10	bet365
Wales	C-	Eliminated in Rof16	3.50	2/10	Paddy Power
Mexico	D+	Eliminated in Rof16	3.00	4/10	Coral
Serbia	D+	Finish 3rd in Group G	2.88	5/10	Betway
Costa Rica	D	Finish Bottom in Group E	1.54	8/10	10Bet
Senegal	D	Beat Ecuador	2.70	4/10	Betfair
England	D	Eliminated in Quarters	3.50	2/10	BetVictor
South Korea	D	Under 2.5 Group Goals	1.90	7/10	Betway
Tunisia	D	Finish Bottom in Group D	2.15	8/10	Unibet
Morocco	D-	Finish Bottom in Group F	2.50	4/10	Betway
United States	D-	Not to Qualify from Group B	1.75	7/10	Betway
Cameroon	D-	Finish Bottom in Group G	1.80	8/10	Paddy Power
Portugal	E+	Not to Qualify from Group H	5.00	2/10	Paddy Power
France	E	Finish 2nd in Group D	3.75	3/10	BoyleSports
Ecuador	E	Finish Bottom in Group A	4.00	3/10	Coral
Poland	E-	Not to Qualify from Group C	1.80	8/10	Betway
Belgium	F	Not to Qualify from Group F	6.00	4/10	BoyleSports