Value in Backing Victor Wembanyama in NBA Rookie of the Year Preseason Betting?

Victor Wembanyama, the most hyped NBA prospect since LeBron James, is the heavy betting favourite to win 2023-24 NBA Rookie of the Year. As short as 1.80 with William Hill and with a longest price of 2.10 with Paddy Power and Betfair, Wembanyama has seen expectation build to an insurmountable height.

Last season, Paolo Banchero became the first overall pick since 2015-16 to win the award in their first season in the league (Ben Simmons being the exception after injury kept him out for his entire rookie year).

Wembanyama is looking to become the third San Antonio Spur to win the hardware after David Robinson and Tim Duncan in 1990 and 1998 respectively. He’s also aiming to become the first international player to receive the trophy since Luka Doncic in 2017-18. WIll he be successful in this endeavour or will Henderson or Holmgren pull off an upset? Find out what our basketball expert Sam Cox thinks.

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In this article:

• Spurs Likely to Restrict Minutes
• How Will Wembenyama Adapt to the NBA Game?
• Good value elsewhere: Holmgren and Henderson Smart Picks

Spurs Likely to Restrict Minutes

While Wembanyama will surely be desperate to prove he can cope with the pressure and post some big numbers in his rookie year, the Spurs’ focus is purely on the long-term. San Antonio is not a Playoff team in 2023-24. This is still a rebuilding club, a franchise looking to construct a winner around Wembanyama in 2025 and beyond.

San Antonio will not take any chances with the first overall pick’s health. Yes, Rookie of the Year is exempt from the new 65-game rule, but if Wembanyama plays considerably fewer minutes than his rivals for the award, it will still be a factor for voters.

There are naturally some concerns about how Wembanyama’s slight frame adapts to the NBA. Rookies are often grinded down by the sheer workload of the 82-game season – Wembanyama is both an injury and fatigue risk throughout the campaign. Whether he’s playing the four or five, he’s going to be regularly taking a physical battering.

How Will Wembenyama Adapt to the NBA Game?

It’s also no guarantee that Wembanyama will seamlessly adapt to the NBA game. His efficiency fluctuated last season, and it remains to be seen how well he can guard on the perimeter.

Speculation that he’ll be a 20 and 10 guy as a rookie seems a little ambitious. Under Gregg Popovich, San Antonio is unlikely to funnel the offence towards Wembanyama like others might do. It is, to steal a phrase from the other side of the country, very much a part of The Process in Wembanyama’s rookie year.

A 29% three-point shooter for his career, don’t be surprised if Wembanyama is inefficient as a scorer. His length will make him impactful defensively, but his offensive game might take a year or two.

Good value elsewhere: Holmgren and Henderson Smart Picks

An implied probability of around 50% on Wembanyama to win Rookie of the Year seems a little too high. It’s possible he doesn’t play enough minutes to be in serious contention for the award. Still very raw in areas of his game, there’s a possibility his rookie season falls a long way shy of the lofty expectations.

Both Scoot Henderson and Chet Holmgren represent better value than Wembanyama in this market. Henderson is as long as 5.00 with some books. Holmgren is 5.50 with Boyle Sports.

Portland is almost certain to trade Damian Lillard eventually, which will see the team handed over to Henderson. That will give the third overall pick a platform for a good-stats, bad-team season which often is enough to win Rookie of the Year. Henderson posted 17/5/7 in the G-League last season – even getting close to those numbers would give him a great chance of winning.

Holmgren, meanwhile, is not going to post gaudy individual stats. A winning case for Holmgren will likely be based on advanced metrics and team success.

It’s reasonable to envisage a world where Holmgren is a plus-defender and useful offensive player on a Thunder team which finishes in the top six in the Western Conference. That could be appealing to voters if Henderson is inefficient on a poor Blazers team.

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