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NCAA Basketball Saturday Best Bets: Saturday, February 18th
It’s time for another round of Saturday NCAA Hoops, and our resident U.S. basketball expert Ej Garr has a side and a total to recommend today. Starting with a contest from the MAC, Akron and Buffalo meet at Rhodes Arena as the Zips try to keep pace at the top of the conference standings, Ej finishes up with a play from the match between Portland and Santa Clara at Chiles Center, where points might be the call of the day. Let’s hit the court!
In this article:
- Akron Zips vs Buffalo Bulls Preview
- Akron Zips vs Buffalo Bulls Best Bet
- Portland Pilots vs Santa Clara Broncos Preview
- Portland Pilots vs Santa Clara Broncos Best Bet
Akron Zips vs Buffalo Bulls Preview
February 19, 00:05 (UK time)
There are so many games this Saturday, as usual, and I had to pick out this game to start today’s article for one reason. The line setters seem to think that 146.5 points are enough on this total, and luckily they have dropped the ball again. I love busting the oddsmakers when they set a bad line, and this is one of those spots.
Akron is only one game out of first place in the MAC, and a home game against Buffalo should be just what the Doctor ordered to stay on track. The Zips need just two wins from their last 5 games to break the 20-win plateau and anyone who has followed Akron basketball in recent years is hoping they can match and surpass last year’s accomplishments.
Akron won their final 8 games of last year’s season before going on to play UCLA in the NCAA Tournament. The Zips won their final five games of the regular season and then went 3 – 0 in the MAC Tournament to earn their spot in the big dance. Buffalo was one of their victims in the MAC Tournament last year, and the Zips are currently riding a modest 3-game win streak over Buffalo coming into this game.
Akron went into Buffalo on January 31 and handed the Bulls an 81 – 64 thumping, and I will just be honest and say that I expect a similar result tonight. Did you notice that the line setters put the total right about at that number for this game, but that’s not going to be enough. The Bulls’ defence has been a complete mess this season and it’s been even worse lately than it already was.
If you like numbers, the Bulls are ranked 349th in the country giving up 77.8 points per game, and I think that number is going to increase again tonight. The Over is 7 – 2 in the Bulls’ last nine road games, and the Zips total has gone over that number in four of their last five home games.
Xavier Castaneda is putting up an incredible campaign, averaging over 21 points a game while shooting better than 40% from behind the arc. Enrique Freeman is a double-double waiting to happen every night, as he grabbed 15 boards in the win over Eastern Michigan last time on the floor.
Akron Zips vs Buffalo Bulls Best Bet
Akron may struggle with their depth a bit, but their main five should have all the success in the world against Buffalo. I expect an 85 – 70 win for the Zips at home, and that gives us plenty of cushion to take on this total.
- Selection: Over 146.5
- Best odds: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes 4/10
More Akron Zips vs Buffalo Bulls Tips
Portland Pilots vs Santa Clara Broncos Preview
February 19, 01:30 (UK time)
The Broncos are cruising right along carrying a 4-game win streak into this weekend’s bout with the Pilots. For some reason, the line setters want you to think they could be looking ahead and seeing past Portland offering such a small handicap of only -2.5 points.
I am not letting that get by me because I believe that Santa Clara is going to easily take this road win against a Pilots team that is pretty damn bad. If giving up points is the best way to lose basketball games, Portland has mastered how to do it this campaign.
The Pilots are giving up 82.7 points a night over their last nine games, and that’s why you see Portland at the bottom of the rankings in so many defensive categories. Portland ranks 346th in the country allowing 77.2 points per game for the campaign, and 349th guarding the 3-ball.
In fact, neither team can defend the arc, so this has the potential to be a high-scoring game without a doubt. I think Santa Clara is simply the better team, and it is not just because they are favoured to win the game. That is usually something I am not a fan of because I love to find underdogs with a chance to provide an upset.
This is not one of those games, as Santa Clara is trying their best to hang on to the 3-seed in the WCC headed for the conference tournament. I highly doubt they think they could catch St. Mary’s or Gonzaga because let’s face it, they won’t. The Broncos only have 3 games left to play in the regular season and they have a good chance of winning all three of those games.
I think the Broncos will be favoured over both Pepperdine and San Diego, and those should also be wins that provide momentum headed for the WCC tourney.
Santa Clara’s inside presence with Brandin Podziemski to go with all these dudes who are around the glass should be the difference. The Broncos have nine players that average at least 2.4 boards a game because even the bench is aware that staying on the court means rebounding! Broncos Head Coach Herb Sendek wants to get his team into the big dance for the first time since he’s arrived here. This is year-7 with the program for Sendek, and last year’s NIT showing is all the Broncos have to show for his time here.
If Santa Clara can win their final 3 games and take a 7-game win streak into the conference tournament, I would assume that as long as they make it to the semifinals it should be enough to earn an At-Large bid to the NCAA Tournament. The committee wants to find those teams that have 20+ wins that are playing well, and the Broncos hold all of the cards in their hands.
I think another NIT appearance is a given no matter how the regular season ends for the Broncos, but we all know they want more than that.
Portland Pilots vs Santa Clara Broncos Best Bet
Santa Clara 79 – 70 Portland. It should be damn close to a double-digit win for Santa Clara so a bucket and change puts no fear in me at all…
- Selection: Santa Clara -2.5
- Best odds: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes 4/10
Odds as of 9:00 am February 18, 2023. Odds may now differ.
More Portland Pilots vs Santa Clara Broncos Tips
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