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NCAA Basketball Friday Best Bets: Friday, March 3rd
Now that we are into March it’s time for all of the absolute madness to begin. Conference tournaments are already underway and our resident hoops expert Ej Garr is ready to keep us covered.
Today, Ej is covering a pair of high-profile MAC games as both games feature the top-4 programs in the standings. This is the final round of regular season games for the MAC programs, and a lot is still at stake toward the conference tournament. Let’s take it to the court!
In this article:
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs Akron Zips Preview
- Kent State Golden Flashes vs Akron Zips Best Bet
- Ball State Cardinals vs Toledo Rockets Preview
- Ball State Cardinals vs Toledo Rockets Best Bet
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Akron Zips Preview
March 3, 23:05 (UK time)
The Flashes are one game behind Toledo in the conference table with one game left to play, and I will discuss the Rockets in a minute. Kent State has a chance to steal the top spot from Toledo with a win and a Rockets loss, so there is still plenty at stake here
While the Flashes hope to steal the 1-seed for the MAC tourney, Akron could potentially sneak into the 2-seed with a win here because they have already taken a win from the first meeting between these two programs back on February 3, 67- 55. Should Akron sweep the Flashes, they will slide into the second position for the conference tourney, which could push Kent State back to third to begin the event.
The line setters are certainly expecting a Flashes win favouring them by 4 points which would improve their home record to 15 – 0 this campaign. No team has walked into the Memorial Athletic and Convocation Center and found a win over the Flashes, and they will have a lively crowd without a doubt.
I am trying to understand why this total is set so low. I see a `134 being offered at every sportsbook available, although I guess you could settle for the 133.5 if you don’t mind the 1.85 odds. I am a guy who likes to stay as close to even money for every bet as I can because your ROI is the real number that matters to me.
I assume that the oddsmakers are trying to tell you these two programs might be nervous with so much at stake. Since this game starts an hour before the Toledo game I am about to discuss, that gives Toledo a bit of an advantage. The Rockets will certainly have someone on those sidelines with an update or 30 when they tip off.
I see this game as a high-scoring affair even if it takes late free throws to get there. We all know that if this is a 4-5 point game, the fouls will start to come and the charity stripe will have to be good to us if that‘s what it takes.
Akron has scored no less than 74 points in 5 of their last 6 games and their last two outings produced 168 points in wins over Western Michigan and Ball State. Akron averages over 73 points a game and I don’t see why they will be held to less than that tonight.
The Flashes’ defense on paper has a respectable ranking of 16th in opposing field goal percentage, but the pressure of the final game of the regular season has no regard for any of the past stats.
Kent State Golden Flashes vs Akron Zips Best Bet
Akron has a damn good chance to pull an upset here and hand Kent State their first and only home loss of the campaign. They’ve already proven they can beat them and this is a game that will come down to the wire. I see a 74 – 71 game working out and that gives us plenty of cushion on this total to topple the number.
- Selection: Total Over 134
- Best odds: 1.92 (William Hill)
- Stakes: 4/10
More Kent State Golden Flashes vs Akron Zips Tips
Ball State Cardinals vs Toledo Rockets Preview
March 4, 00:05 (UK time)
Toledo is 15 – 2 in conference play and holds all the cards to claim the top seed in the MAC Tournament. A win here at Worthen Arena will give the Rockets a 10 – 3 record away from home this campaign and a 25 – 6 overall record for the year.
I don’t know if it will be a good or a bad thing for Toledo, but the Cardinals aren’t playing for anything in this spot. Ball State is locked into the 4-seed for the MAC Tournament, which also means they could get a rematch with the top seed sooner than they might have hoped. The line setters are pointing to a Rockets win at -3.5 on the handicap, and I think it is because they are aware that Ball State needs to worry about more than this game.
Let me tell you right now that they want this 21st win of the campaign at home to prove why they will be more dangerous in the conference tourney. Ball State is not about to play dead and let Toledo walk in here without a fight, and do you see this total? I am staring at a 159 on this total, and all that is one high number to deal with.
I don’t think the pressure will get to Toledo early, and that is why I am suggesting a 1st-Half bet on the Rockets to have a lead at the midway point of the match. For some reason, I have a feeling that Ball State will make a run late in this game to give Toledo a scare because they are at home and the road is a tough place to play in NCAA basketball.
Let’s be clear that neither team has any depth to speak of and both teams will likely play 7 or 8 guys all night. Both squads have four players averaging double-digit scoring production and then the drop-off starts to show.
However, Toledo is the 2nd ranked offense in all of college basketball, and those 85.7 points per game are one damn obnoxious number! At 39.9%, Toledo ranks 4th in the country shooting from behind the arc, but their defense is a complete mess. When you see a 330 next to your program in so many defensive inefficiencies, that could lead to some big trouble both tonight and in the conference tournament to come.
Ball State Cardinals vs Toledo Rockets Best Bet
This is an 86 – 82 game waiting to happen and that 159 will get toppled. Make that a secondary bet if you fancy some extra action, but I see Toledo as the team ahead at halftime by 4 points claiming a 44 – 40 lead. That first-half total will be the best bet to make so pick your poison on the main total or the halftime total.
- Selection: First Half Total Over 76
- Best odds: 1.93 (Pinnacle)
- Stakes: 4/10
Odds as of 8:00 am March 3, 2023. Odds may now differ.
More Ball State Cardinals vs Toledo Rockets Tips
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