Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat: Back Heat Against Tired Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks and Miami Heat clash at Fiserv Forum on Monday night in their first matchup since Miami upset Milwaukee first round of the Playoffs. The Bucks are on the second night of a back-to-back after a blowout loss to the Hawks on Sunday.

Despite the NBA’s new player participation policy, bettors should be wary of rest here, particularly after Damian Lillard struggled on Sunday. Miami enters this game having lost two in a row, and with Josh Richardson, Caleb Martin and Haywood Haysmith all unlikely to play. Khris Middleton sat out the Bucks’ Sunday loss, but should return for this one.

Read below for our analysis of Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat from US sports expert Sam Cox. For more free basketball tips, visit the bettingexpert community, and for more expert tips, visit our Expert Insights section.

In this article:

• Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Expert Tip
• Milwaukee Bucks Stats and Form
• Miami Heat Stats and Form
• Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat H2H

MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS MIAMI HEAT EXPERT TIP

• Expert tip: Miami Heat +5.5
• Best odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Coral
• Stakes: 3/10

The Miami Heat are coming into this game as underdogs at around 1.67 odds. Last ear’s NBA finalists are on a 2-game losing streak and in desperate need of a bounce back. We expect the combination of the Bucks’s fatigue and Miami’s quality to keep the game close. We are backing the Heat against the spread at +5.5 points.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS STATS AND FORM

After a spectacular opening night showing from Damian Lillard to see off the Sixers, the former Blazer returned to Earth with a thud on Sunday, going two-for-12 for just six points in a blowout loss. Seven Hawks reached double-digit scoring.

This was the kind of defensive performance many were concerned about when swapping Jrue Holiday for Lillard. The Bucks’ offence isn’t going to have many nights as ineffective as Sunday, and they can’t afford to if the defence is going to give up 120+ points.

Miami is not the same offensive threat as the Hawks, yet they have the ability to get hot with their array of shooters around Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. Which Buck takes the Butler assignment?

MIAMI HEAT STATS AND FORM

A narrow win over Detroit was followed by losses to the Celtics and Timberwolves. The second of those defeats came without Butler after the controversial decision to rest their star wing just three games into the season.

Butler, though, will be raring to go for this matchup as the Heat look to prove themselves as contenders once again after missing out on Lillard. It’s no secret Bam Adebayo is one of the toughest matchups for Giannis Antetokounmpo, too.

With the Bucks on the second night of a back-to-back, this is a great opportunity for the Heat to record a statement road win early in the season. The moneyline is tempting, but we’re going to stick with Miami to cover at 1.91.

MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS MIAMI HEAT H2H

The most important head-to-head statistic for this matchup is the Heat beating the Bucks in five games in the Playoffs. Yes, Antetokounmpo was injured during the series and clearly not fully healthy, but the Heat regained the psychological edge in this matchup.

These teams have played out some pivotal Playoff series over the last few seasons. They have also split the regular-season series 2-2 in each of the last two campaigns. Games have generally been quite one-sided, with only one of the four games in the 2022-23 regular season being decided by fewer than eight points.

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