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Boxing Italy vs USA Bet Builder Tips: USA Bounce Back
ITALY VS USA BET BUILDER TIPS, OPTA STATS, PLAYER PROPS: Tuesday, September 5th
After the unexpected defeat to Lithuania, Team USA will face Italy in the quarterfinals. The game against Lithuania should be a wake-up call for Steve Kerr’s squad, and they should play with much more intensity in the playoffs.
Basketball expert Elek Lenard has another Bet Builder for this FIBA World Cup match-up, so if you want more of his expert tips, visit our Expert Insights section.
Bet Builder Odds: 4.50
Odds available as of September 5th 2023. Odds may now differ.
Italy vs USA stats and facts
- The USA scored more than 95 points in 4 out of 5 games in this World Cup, and they played the fastest pace in the whole tournament
- Edwards scored 35 against Lithuania. Now that game is more important, he could score even more.
- Brunson isn’t the main point guard of the team, but he still averages 3.8 assists per game and has 3 overs on the 3.5 line. He had 7 assists against Lithuania.
ITALY vs USA BET BUILDER TIPS: USA’s Wake-Up Call
USA Team Total Over 94.5 points
Italy’s defence isn’t good, and there is also one factor that favours the USA- Italy lacks an inside presence. The tallest bigs in Italy rotation are Achille Polonara and Nicolo Melli, who are both 6’9” (205 cm).
There shouldn’t be a problem for Team USA to get into the paint and score without a problem, either at the rim or from the free-throw line. Italy also allows a huge number of three-point attempts to their opponents (31 per game) and the USA should punish that.
There will be many size mismatches, and one will be especially huge: Anthony Edwards at the guard spot against the Italian’s guard rotation. He is much more athletic than anyone Italy can put to guard him, and doubling isn’t a solution as Edwards can just go through it with ease or pass to the open man. Italy didn’t have challenges in the group stage and was a little bit lucky that the Serbian coach did a horrible job against them.
The Dominican Republic had a 116 offensive rating, and the Phillippines had 110. Serbia had 100 while Bogdan Bogdanovic shot 1/13 from the field and Guduric played too many minutes as the point guard spot. The USA has a much more potent offense than any team Italy has faced so far, and shouldn’t have an issue scoring against them.
Anthony Edwards 20+ points
Edwards had 20+ points in only 2 out of 5 games. But games now matter, so he will be much more aggressive. He had a monstrous game in the defeat against Lithuania: 35 points on 9/13 for two and 5/13 for three. Italy’s defenders have no chance to guard him, as Spagnolo and Spissu are both too small, while Tonut and Pajola are not quick enough.
Edwards scored even through double teams against Lithuania, he shouldn’t be scared to do that against the Italians. He shoots from everywhere at the court: rim, midranges, threes, and pace actually don’t matter, as Edwards is a great isolation scorer.
Jalen Brunson over 3.5 assists
While Brunson barely went over this line the first four games( he went 2-2 with both overs being at 4), he had 7 against the Lithuanians. Italy could hedge in the pick and roll, as it is possibly the only defence in which Achille Polonara can be somewhat useful.
After Reaves played badly against Lithuania, Brunson could get some more playtime against the Italians. Waters had 9 against Italy, Bogdan Bogdanovic had 4, Clarkson had 6, Montero had 9 and Feliz had 5.
Italy has tendencies to overhelp while defending transition, which should lead to many Brunson fastbreak assists for shooters. He played a solid number of pick-and-roll possessions when he was s on the court and should go over the line in 20-25 minutes.
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