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Horse Racing New York Yankees vs New York Mets Best Bet: Quintana Worth Backing Over Struggling Rodon
New York Yankees vs New York Mets Best Bet: Wednesday, July 26th
The Mets hammered the Yankees 9-3 in the first game of the Subway Series on Tuesday night. The Yankees, still waiting on the return of Aaron Judge, are on a 5-10 run, provoking widespread panic across the New York-based media. Of course, the Yankees are bottom of their division, but they are far from out of it, and have won six more games on the season than their city rivals.
Given just a 4.6% chance of making the postseason, the Mets are poised to be sellers rather than buyers at the trade deadline. Moving Justin Verlander and/or Max Scherzer is a distinct possibility – this is the most expensive team in MLB history, and their results thus far represent the biggest disappointment in the Majors.
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Thu, Jul 27. 00:05 (UK time)
From a run scoring and prevention perspective, though, there’s little to choose between these teams. The Mets have a Pythagorean record of 49-51, while the Yankees are 51-50. These teams are middle-of-the-pack despite the big names and costly rosters.
Carlos Rodon, starting on Wednesday, was meant to be the Yankees’ biggest offseason addition. Instead, he missed the first few months of the season, and has pitched to a 7.36 ERA in three starts. He’s also already bitten back at the Yankee crowd – it will be interesting to see how he’s received tonight.
Rodon was exceptional for the Giants in 2022, but his command has been iffy this year, and his stuff has been nowhere near as crisp, resulting in a drop-off in his strikeout numbers. Somehow the Yankees are still favoured in this game.
While Jose Quintana is a soft-thrower without the same pedigree as Rodon, he’s having a very solid year. The Mets’ southpaw boasts a 3.60 ERA and an xERA below four.
The Yankees have generally fared better against lefties than righties, but it’s worth noting that their 86 wRC+ since the start of June ranks 25th in the big leagues. The Mets are 16th by that same metric.
New York Yankees vs New York Mets Best Bet
Both bullpens have been okay if a little inconsistent. The Mets still rank top six by team xwOBA, putting them a few places ahead of the Yankees. Without Judge, this Yankees line up is subpar, and they will struggle to compensate for another poor start from Rodon.
At 2.30 on the moneyline, the Mets’ implied probability of 43.5% seems far too low. Yes, they are having a poor season, but the Yankees have been one of the worst teams in the Majors since 4th July. We love the value on the Mets to complete a two-game sweep behind Quintana.
- Selection: New York Mets moneyline
- Best Odds: 2.30 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 8/10
Odds as of 8:00 am on July 26, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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