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Mixed martial arts Are the Atlanta Braves Worth Backing to Win the World Series
Barrelling towards back-to-back 100-win seasons, the Atlanta Braves are set to make it six consecutive National League East titles. Powered by a spectacular offence and with a deep rotation, the Braves are given an 18.9% of winning the World Series on Baseball-Reference. Fangraphs has them at 28.3%.
The bookies are more in line with Fangraphs than Baseball Reference – the best price of 3.60 at Bet365 carries a 27.8% implied probability. No other team has a higher than 20% implied probability of lifting the Commissioner’s Trophy this autumn.
Expert Sam Cox breaks down the Atlanta Braves’ odds to win the MLB World Series and gives his expert opinion. For more daily expert opinions, visit our Expert Insights section.
In this article:
Deserving favourites
These Braves are a true juggernaut, boasting a 125 (league-best) wRC+. That number is backed up by the league’s best xwOBA, and their pitchers have done enough for them to win games, even though they rank 12th in ERA.
Even with a less impressive ERA than some of their Playoff rivals, Atlanta will feel pretty good about its pitching with several postseason-calibre arms behind Spencer Strider, and multiple relievers Brian Snitker can trust.
There’s no question the Braves deserve to be World Series favourites. While the MLB Playoffs can be something of a lottery, and the best team is often eliminated, Atlanta has experience in the postseason, and very few holes on their roster.
There are marked weaknesses around the rest of the National League, too. Milwaukee’s line up is still one of the worst among contending teams. The Dodgers are facing an availability crisis with their pitchers, making their 5.00 price seem far too short. Of the various teams still competing for a Wild Card berth, the Phillies are the only one that could come close to matching up with the Braves in a series.
Atlanta, though, has won eight of 13 against the Phils this season. Strider against Zack Wheeler would be a spectacular matchup, but we might not get to see it with Philadelphia’s rotation shifted around by the Wild Card series.
Risks with backing the Braves
Aside from injuries, it’s hard to pick out many risks with backing the Braves to win the World Series. Perhaps Strider’s high ERA is a slight concern. Maybe Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton exceeding their expected metrics will make you cautious.
Other than that, this Braves team looks comfortably the most complete in baseball. Their bullpen is eighth in FIP, and sixth at leaving runners on base. No team is within 50 homers of their team total. Only 10 teams have stolen more bases, with the running game set to play a bigger role in this postseason.
The Astros and Orioles represent some potentially formidable World Series opponents, but both would be underdogs against a healthy Braves team.
Value to be found even at a short price
A great regular season record doesn’t always equate to postseason glory. Many teams have fallen short in the small samples of the Playoff series, and countless others have had year-long weaknesses exposed when facing elite opposition.
No team is ever a lock to make the Fall Classic, but few have been as well-positioned as the Braves are, particularly when we consider the state of the National League around them.
Does a team have the combination of top-tier pitching and a deep, powerful line up to go toe-to-toe with Atlanta over five or seven games? It doesn’t look like it. We like the value at 3.60.
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