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It’s time for the final grand slam of the 2023 season! Tennis continues on into the winter – with a few big Masters events still left – but of the four major championships the sport has to offer, this is the last taste of grand slam tennis for fans until 2024.
On the ATP side of things, the race in recent months seems to have turned into one featuring two horses.
Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic have absolutely dominated the world of men’s tennis for months now.
Not only have they played each other in each of the last two grand slams, but they’ve won one each, with the Serbian taking down the title on the red clay at Roland Garros, while the world No. 1 eked out a win over Djokovic head-to-head on Centre Court at Wimbledon to end the 36-year-old’s dreams of winning the calendar slam.
Let’s dive into the odds for all of the top players to win the U.S. Open this year and break down the paths each of the big guns have to take to make it to the final Sunday at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
In this article:
- US Open Men’s Winner Odds
- BOTTOM HALF ANALYSIS: Djokovic Avoids Tough Crowd
- TOP HALF ANALYSIS: Alcaraz on a Tough Path
US OPEN 2023 Men’s Winner Odds
| Player | Odds | Implied % Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | 2.20 | 45.5 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 2.75 | 36.4 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 10.00 | 10.0 |
| Jannick Sinner | 15.00 | 6.7 |
| Alexandar Zverev | 29.00 | 3.4 |
| Holger Rune | 29.00 | 3.4 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 34.00 | 2.9 |
| Taylor Fritz | 41.00 | 2.4 |
| Frances Tiafoe | 51.00 | 2.0 |
| Casper Ruud | 51.00 | 2.0 |
Odds available at Bet365 as of August 25th 2023. Odds may now differ.
TOP HALF ANALYSIS: Alcaraz on a Tough Path
This is, without question, the tougher of the two halves.
Alcaraz – who is the tournament’s top seed – will have the tougher path of the two, with names like Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Karen Khachanov and Jannik Sinner all lurking.
It’s the main reason we saw his odds jettison from 2.20 to 2.63 at Bet365 in the futures market. He can also be had at Unibet at 2.70 now!
In fact, it’s not Djokovic who is the favourite by the same margin as Alcaraz prior to the draw. The markets and bookmakers are in agreement that Alcaraz certainly drew the short straw when it comes to the degree of difficulty to ensure another potential classic match between these two occurs.
Consequently, each of the next few favourites up here are also showing relatively tempting prices, just because of how stacked the draw happens to be.
Medvedev (11.00 – Unibet), Sinner (15.00 – Unibet) and Zverev (41.00 – Unibet) are the next three players in line to capture the crown.
It doesn’t stop there, however, as there are a few other potential pitfalls for players in this half of the draw.
Sleeping on the likes of Tallon Griekspoor (751.00 – Unibet) and Hubert Hurkacz (81.00 – Unibet) could also be a fatal mistake for one’s chances, as Hurkacz has the serve to trouble any player on any given day (just ask Alcaraz, who had his hands full in both Toronto and Cincinnati with the big-serving Pole), while the Dutchman has claimed two titles in quicker conditions this year and possesses an explosive game from the baseline that can hit with the best of them.
Could he beat Alcaraz in the third round? Not likely, but Griekspoor could take a set and play another relatively close, which could keep the Spaniard on court for longer than expected.
At present, this is Alcaraz’s half to lose.
Until someone steps up to disrupt the stranglehold he and Djokovic have on the ATP Tour (they’ve won the first three grand slams of the year and almost half of the Masters events, with Djokovic having missed four of the seven Masters events that have taken place).
BOTTOM HALF ANALYSIS: Djokovic Avoids Tough Crowd
With four of the five favourites to win the tournament in the top half of the draw, there are a few things that stand out in the bottom half.
For starters, as alluded to earlier, Djokovic has a much more manageable path to the final.
He stands at 2.25 at Unibet, giving him an implied probability of 45% to win the tournament.
Those odds may not seem great, but when you consider the dearth of real challengers to him in his half, it actually appears to be an enticing price.
Alcaraz, Medvedev and Zverev are the three main guys that have pushed him in the past on a consistent basis. He’d only have to beat one of them to win the title. That’s a big plus.
On the flip side, this half of the draw provides some players that may not have expected much from the next fortnight to stop and reconsider their chances at making the final 16 or even a quarterfinal.
Take last year’s finalist, for instance, in Casper Ruud (51.00). This is a big week for him in his points defence. A section where the other seeds are an out-of-form Frances Tiafoe (51.00), Sebastian Korda (101.00) and Adrian Mannarino (901.00) should help him defend at least three or four rounds.
This is also the half of the draw where potential dark horses should interest punters. By default, it’s the more manageable portion of the draw where a lower-ranked player could stun the tennis world.
Think Ben Shelton (201.00) in Australia, where the exuberant American teenager captured the hearts of tennis fans everywhere by reaching the quarterfinals. He’s had his struggles the rest of the campaign, and I don’t think he’ll repeat that feat in New York, but there are a few names that may be worth small wagers in case something goes terribly wrong for the world No. 2.
Tommy Paul (201.00) is someone I’d keep my eye on in the next two weeks. The American will surely have the support of the home crowd and has quietly put together a really strong summer.
He has the hard-court preference you’d want in a longshot candidate, he’s got a really strong game, and he’s also in really strong form entering the tournament. His summer has seen him play three events. He lost in three sets to the eventual finalist in Los Cabos, beat Alcaraz and lost to the eventual champion in Toronto and then won a few matches and nearly beat Alcaraz (the eventual finalist) again in Cincinnati.
The other player that could benefit from a shock Djokovic exit? Taylor Fritz (67.00). Another American who is sure to have crowd support, Fritz also has a well-rounded game and has had a decent summer. It tailed off a bit, but he did win the title in Atlanta, the semifinals in Washington, D.C. and then the quarters in Cincinnati.
He’d have to play Djokovic a round sooner than his compatriot, but he may be another one to watch for as the tournament unfolds.
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