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Boxing Super Bowl LVIII Chiefs vs 49ers Picks, Odds, Player Props, Game Info, Injury Report and Where to Watch
Super Bowl LVIII sees a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, with the Kansas City Chiefs taking on the San Francisco 49ers in Las Vegas on 11th February 2024. Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid and the Chiefs are aiming for a third ring and could become the first team to win consecutive Super Bowls since the New England Patriots in 2003 and 2004.
The Niners are hoping to win their first Super Bowl since Steve Young’s MVP performance against the San Diego Chargers in Super Bowl XXIX.
Read more from US sports writer Sam Cox in our Expert Insights section.
In this article:
- Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Picks
- Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Game Info
- Super Bowl Odds
- Trends
- Super Bowl LVIII Injury Report
- Chiefs Key Player
- 49ers Key Player
- Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers H2H
- Where to watch the Super Bowl?
- Safer Gambling
Chiefs vs 49ers Picks: ATS, Over/Under & Player Props
Will the Chiefs become just the sixth franchise to win four Super Bowls? Or will the Niners tie the Steelers and Patriots with a joint-record sixth Big Game victory? Here are our best Super Bowl LVIII picks…
Super Bowl LVIII Spread Pick
There has been some early spread movement. San Francisco is up to a 2.5-point favourite with some bookies, which reflects their dominance since going into their bye week at 5-3.
Kyle Shanahan’s team were made to sweat by the Lions and Packers, but their offence got the job done. There are some minor concerns about the defence after allowing 52 points over their last two games – what does Steve Wilks have up his sleeve to slow down Patrick Mahomes?
Kansas City have two road Playoff wins. The Mahomes era Chiefs were not used to playing away postseason games, but they have shown their mettle to record impressive wins in Buffalo and Baltimore.
It’s always going to be a brave decision to bet against Mahomes, especially after their last two wins. The Niners, though, are the better all-round team, and they are the value pick in this market.
- Selection: San Francisco 49ers -2.0
- Odds: 1.90
- Stake: 5/10
Super Bowl LVIII Over/Under Pick
The Chiefs have been an incredibly profitable team to back the under with this season. Kansas City have gone under the game total in 70% of their games across the regular season and Playoffs thanks to a stout defence and wasteful offence.
San Francisco has only hit the over in 11 of their 19 games. Still, this line looks on the low side. Kansas City has struggled against the run throughout the season, leaving them vulnerable to Christian McCaffrey. As good as San Francisco’s defence has been, both Jordan Love and Jared Goff were able to move their teams down the field in the last two rounds.
The line of 47.5 just seems a bit low for these two teams. Both defences will get stops, but there will inevitably be big plays from both offences. We’re expecting both teams to score at least three touchdowns, which means only a couple of field goals will get us to the over.
- Selection: Over 47.5 total points
- Odds: 1.91
- Stake: 8/10
Super Bowl LVIII Player Props
Christian McCaffrey over 89.5 rushing yards
Christian McCaffrey averaged over 91 rushing yards per game in the regular season. He’s cleared this line in both Playoff games. Over his last eight games, the Commanders are the only team to hold him below this number.
There’s no question the volume will be there. In that eight-game spell, McCaffrey’s lowest rushing attempts is 14.
Only seven teams allowed more rushing yards per attempt than the Chiefs. With their ability to pressure Brock Purdy (second in pressure rate), the 49ers will need McCaffrey’s ground game.
- Selection: Christian McCaffrey over 89.5 rushing yards
- Odds: 1.91
- Stake: 8/10
Just as the Niners need McCaffrey to have a big game, Kansas City is very dependent on Travis Kelce. His other half might get more camera time at Allegiant Stadium, but Kelce could be the difference-maker for the Chiefs.
After he looked a step slow at times in the regular season, Kelce has stepped up in the Playoffs. He had 11 receptions on 11 targets against Baltimore, and we’re envisaging similar usage in Super Bowl LVIII.
- Selection: Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions
- Odds: 1.69
- Stake: 10/10
Patrick Mahomes has gone under this passing yards line in two of his three Playoff games. He only posted 262 passing yards in his lone game hitting the over, which came against a Dolphins defence which is far inferior to these Niners.
It’s now four out of Mahomes’ last six Playoff games that he’s gone under this line. The Dolphins game is the only time in his last five outings that he’s got to 262 passing yards.
Bettors are expecting Mahomes to step up in the Big Game, and he may well do, but this line is simply too high with how the Chiefs’ offence has performed.
- Selection: Patrick Mahomes under 261.5 passing yards
- Odds: 1.91
- Stake: 6/10
Isiah Pacheco has scored a touchdown in seven consecutive games. He is the closest thing to a lock in this market for the Chiefs, which makes it curious that Bet365 are giving us a generous 1.83 price.
San Francisco has a good, not great, red zone defence. They are only middle of the pack in opponent touchdown rate in the red zone. Kansas City knows they need to establish the run on Sunday night, and handing off to Pacheco is going to be a staple of their offence.
With a couple of receiving scores this season, too, Pacheco could be an option for a short-yardage pass in the red zone.
- Selection: Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown scorer
- Odds: 1.83
- Stake: 5/10
L’Jarius Sneed over 3.5 tackles
L’Jarius Sneed is one of the most underrated defensive players in the NFL. Sneed has been integral to a formidable Chiefs defence this season – he has also cleared this tackles line in all three Playoff games.
Nine Lions had four or more tackles in the NFC Championship Game. Nine Packers had nine or more tackles against the Niners in the Divisional Round. Sneed has averaged 4.8 combined tackles per game this season – we prefer the longer odds on over 3.5 tackles, but some bettors might want to take over 4.5 tackles and assists.
- Selection: L’Jarius Sneed over 3.5 tackles
- Odds: 2.05
- Stake: 4/10
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Game Info
- Date: February 11th 2024
- Time: 6:30 pm ET
- Location: Paradise, Nevada
- Stadium: Allegiant Stadium
- Weather forecast: 11°C, 13% chance of rain
Game officials
- Referee: Bill Vinovich (52)
- Umpire: Terry Killens (77)
- Down judge: Mark Perlman (9)
- Line judge: Jeff Bergman (32)
- Field judge: Tom Hill (97)
- Side judge: Allen Baynes (56)
- Back judge: Brad Freeman (88)
- Replay official: Mike Chase
- Replay assistant: Jack Persampire
Super Bowl LVIII Odds
| Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Odds | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 Odds | Moneyline | Over/Under | Handicap |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2.10 | O 47.5 (1.91) | +2 (1.91) |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1.77 | U 47.5 (1.91) | -2 (1.91) |
Chiefs vs 49ers Trends
- The Chiefs have gone 12-7-1 against the spread so far this season.
- San Francisco has only covered in nine of their 19 games across the regular season and Playoffs.
- Kansas City is 5-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of 2021.
- In games with equal rest, the Chiefs have covered 60% of the time in the 2023 season.
- Since 2019, the Niners are only 11-13 ATS against non-conference opposition.
- The Chiefs have hit the under in 70% of their games this season.
- San Francisco has landed the over in 11 of their 19 games since the start of the regular season.
Super Bowl LVIII Injury Report
Chiefs injury report
- Joe Thuney (pectoral) is questionable and didn’t practice on Wednesday.
- Jerick McKinnon (sports hernia) was limited in Wednesday’s practice.
- Charles Omenihu (torn ACL) was placed on injured reserve.
- Prince Tega Wanogho (quadriceps) was ruled out for the AFC Championship Game.
- Skyy Moore (knee) is questionable.
- Derrick Nnadi (triceps) is on injured reserve.
- Cam Jones (chest) is on injured reserve.
- Bryan Cook (ankle) is on injured reserve.
- Jody Fortson (shoulder) is on injured reserve.
- Nazeeh Johnson (knee) is on injured reserve.
Niners injury report
- Ambry Thomas (ankle) is questionable.
- Arik Armstead (foot/knee) was limited in Wednesday’s practice.
- Oren Burks is questionable.
- George Kittle (toe) was limited in Wednesday’s practice.
- Kalia Davis (ankle) is on injured reserve.
- Clelin Ferrell (knee) is on injured reserve.
- Danny Gray (shoulder) is on injured reserve.
- Ross Dwelley (ankle) is on injured reserve.
- Talanoa Hufanga (knee) is on injured reserve.
- Nick Zakelj (biceps) is on injured reserve.
- Drake Johnson (knee) is on injured reserve.
- Cameron Latu (knee) is on injured reserve.
Chiefs Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
By his standards, four passing touchdowns and 718 passing yards over three Playoff games isn’t anything special. Patrick Mahomes has been battling with a subpar receiving corps all year, though, and he has reminded us of his brilliance time and time again during the postseason.
The symbiotic understanding with Travis Kelce (23 postseason receptions, three touchdowns) has enabled the Chiefs to generate enough offence even with other receivers hurt and/or struggling.
San Francisco is well aware of what Mahomes can do after his masterpiece four years ago. Mahomes had the highest drop rate in the league, and only four quarterbacks made bad throws less often.
While the Niners don’t blitz often, their pass rush is a huge component of their defence. How often Nick Bosa and Chase Young get to Mahomes will go a long way to deciding this Super Bowl.
49ers Key Player: Christian McCaffrey
Yes, Brock Purdy has delivered for the Niners against both the Lions and Packers to get them to the Super Bowl. Christian McCaffrey is still San Francisco’s key player, at least on the offensive side of the ball.
Kansas City is much better at defending the pass than the run. McCaffrey has 188 rushing yards and four touchdowns through just two Playoff games and has also claimed 11 receptions for 102 yards.
The Niners have no shortage of options on offence, yet McCaffrey’s versatility is invaluable to how they will attack an impressive Chiefs defence.
After leading the NFL in touches, scrimmage yards and total touchdowns in the regular season, McCaffrey has a huge role to play at Allegiant Stadium.
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers H2H
- 23/10/22 – 49ers 23-44 Chiefs
- 2/2/20 – Chiefs 31-20 49ers
- 23/9/18 – Chiefs 38-27 49ers
- 5/10/14 – 49ers 22-17 Chiefs
- 26/9/10 – Chiefs 31-10 49ers
The Chiefs ran out 44-23 victors when these teams faced off in the 2022 regular season. It’s worth noting that this was before San Francisco begun using Brock Purdy as their starting quarterback – since that loss, the Niners have gone 26-6 in the regular season and Playoffs.
These teams, of course, also met in the Super Bowl four years ago. A blockbuster 21-point fourth quarter from the Chiefs saw them win 31-20 on that occasion. While Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid remain in charge of the respective teams, and the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, a lot has changed for both franchises since Hard Rock Stadium hosted the Big Game in February 2020.
Where to Watch the Super Bowl LVIII?
You can watch Super Bowl LV III on TV at CBS Sports or Paramount +.
For tablets and phones, you can stream on the NFL App.
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
