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Scott Thornton brings you his Premier League Prediction Ante-Post Outright Preview ahead of the new season.
Manchester City are the favourites for the title but they are a very backable price. Chelsea appeared to be on the road to recovery at the end of the last campaign but will the summer upheaval prove costly? Southampton will be delighted with their preparations and are poised to prolong their start in the top flight. Elsewhere, can Bruno Fernandes make a similar impact at Manchester United?
- Manchester City To Win The Premier League
- Aston Villa To Finish Higher Than Chelsea
- Southampton Top Newcomer
- Bruno Fernandes Top Assists
2024/25 Season Preview on The Football Betting Pod: Abundant Ante-Post Angles
We’re back, as host Daniel Jenkins is joined by bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, and bettingexpert contributor, Jack Wright, who serve up fifteen selections between them.
The pair take a forensic look at the ante-post outright betting markets with the aim of serving up a number of value selections ahead of the return of domestic football in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two.
Premier League Prediction: Manchester City to Reign Supreme
England, Premier League.
Manchester City lifted the Premier League trophy for the fourth consecutive season in May. They wound up finishing two points ahead of Arsenal after winning their last nine matches. As expected, they rose to the occasion and were sublime when the pressure was on. Pep Guardiola’s side were averaging 3.67 goals per game over that period.
City ranked 2nd in terms of xG and xGA last season but it was their ability to operate under pressure that got them over the line. Pep has navigated his way through some tough title races on the way to asserting City as English football’s dominant force. The FA Cup final defeat against Manchester United is one of just two losses in their last 46 competitive matches.
The Citizens have been quiet in the transfer market to this point but they are about to receive a huge fee for Julian Alvarez and those funds will no doubt be reinvested. Guardiola has always been backed by City’s recruitment team and the coach will undoubtedly have all the tools required to mount a challenge on all fronts this season.
Pre-season results have been largely poor for City but the starting eleven in those matches hasn’t really resembled the team that will feature week in and week out in the Premier League. Pep will undoubtedly find the winning formula once the season gets underway so Manchester City will take some beating once again.
- Premier League Ante-Post Tips: Manchester City To Win The Premier League
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Premier League 2024/25 Prediction: Chelsea to Falter Once More
Chelsea were in the bottom half of the Premier League with just ten games remaining of last season. A good run of form in the final part of the season would have seen them qualify for the Europa League had Manchester United not won the FA Cup but they still managed to earn a place in the Europa Conference League. With Chelsea moving in the right direction, it was surprising to see the Blues opt to replace Mauricio Pochettino with Enzo Maresca.
During pre-season, Maresca has looked to implement a slower, possession-based style of play but it’s been a rocky start. Chelsea have managed to win just one of their five friendlies to this point. The manager criticised the high-defensive line and more passive pressing and suggested that it was a habit from last year.
Chelsea’s transfer strategy has been under scrutiny since the consortium led by Todd Boehly started calling the shots at Stamford Bridge. The club have favoured bringing in some of the most talented young plates in Europe and squad building is a secondary concern. The Blues have had to sell players to avoid falling foul of the Premier League’s PSR rules in recent summers. Still, they approach this season with a bloated squad of 44 players.
Aston Villa’s approach in the transfer market has been far more measured. They’ve made some big sales and reinvested over £150m in key areas. Unai Emery led the team to 4th in the Premier League last season. They finished four points ahead of Chelsea last season despite failing to win any of their last four matches but a Champions League spot was sewn up by then.
- Premier League Ante-Post Tips: Aston Villa To Finish Higher Than Chelsea
- Best Odds: 2.60
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Premier League Prediction: Southampton the best Equipped from the Championship?
Leicester were promoted as top of the Championship but their ongoing struggles with the Premier League’s financial rules mean they are the favourites to go down. The other side who came up with Southampton were Ipswich, who have enjoyed back-to-back promotions to the top flight. Therefore, we are backing the Saints to finish above the other two promoted teams.
The Saints went up via the playoffs and finished the season in fine form. They beat Leeds in the play-final and seem to have made progress this summer. Unlike the Foxes, Southampton have managed to keep hold of Russel Martin. They have also been busy in the transfer market as they aim to impose their style on tougher opposition. They have spent over £100m on new players. Taylor Harwood-Bellis has been brought in from Manchester City to bolster the defence. Flynn Downes will also add some steel in front of the backline. The manager will be hoping that Ben Brereton Diaz can provide some attacking threat.
Southampton averaged the most possession in the Championship last season with 65%. Their possession-hungry style allowed them to average an xG of 1.72 per game, only bettered by Leicester. Their defensive record was poorer than you’d expect for a team at the top of the league but they have taken steps to address those issues in the market.
Russel Martin’s side have won four of their five pre-season matches so far. The lack of upheaval in the summer should serve them well. The manager has a clear philosophy but has been willing to adapt his formation to combat the opposition in the past. This will serve him well in the Premier League.
- Premier League Ante-Post Tips: Southampton Top Newcomer
- Best Odds: 1.83
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Premier League 2024/25 Prediction: Fernandes’ Data Highlights Value
Bruno Fernandes has been a beacon of shining light for Manchester United fans over the last torrid decade. The attacking midfielder is a creative force in midfield and looks set to benefit from a rejuvenated Red Devils’ attack. It would be foolish to think that United’s woes will evaporate in one summer but the acquisitions of Joshua Zirkzee to the forward line and Ruud Van Nistelrooy to the coaching staff should improve their attacking play.
Bruno put up some fantastic numbers last season. He attempted 8.14 progressive passes per game, which put him in the top 2% when compared with all other wingers and attacking midfielders across Europe’s top five leagues. xAG (expected assisted goals) was 0.34 per 90 minutes per game, which puts him in the 93rd percentile. Fernandes finished the Premier League season with eight assists despite having the second-highest xGA in the league with 13.16. Heung-min Son ranked highest in this regard with an xGA of 13.34. Ollie Watkins, who finished with the most assists in the league with 13, had an xGA of just 7.75.
Unfortunately for Bruno, Manchester United’s attack wasn’t firing last season. They finished the campaign with a negative goal difference for the first time since the 1989/90 season. He will be hoping that his teammates can be more of a threat in front of goal to reward his creativity with assists.
- Premier League Ante-Post Tips: Bruno Fernandes Top Assists
- Best Odds: 15.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 3/10
Premier League Outright Ante-Post Tips Odds via bet365 as at 11:25, 7th August 2023 – odds for best bets may now differ.
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