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Ligue 1 gets underway next weekend and our expert Steve Wyss delivers his best Ligue 1 Prediction: Ante-Post Outright Preview for the division. With Kylian Mbappe now departed, are PSG vulnerable to be toppled?
The Parisians remain the clear bookmakers favourites to lift the crown but could a resurgent Marseille offer a threat? Down at the bottom St Etienne return to the top flight, whilst several strikers will be eyeing up the golden boot with Mbappe now gone.
- To Win Ligue 1 W/O PSG: Marseille
- To Finish in the Bottom Three: Le Havre
- Top Ligue 1 Goalscorer: Georges Mikautadze
- Top Three Finish: Lyon
Ligue 1 2024/25 Prediction: Marseille to win Ligue 1 w/o PSG
France, Ligue 1
Marseille endured a very poor domestic season last year. The only highlight was reaching the semi-finals of the Europa League. They went through a trio of managers but looked well set to rebound strongly. OM acquired Italian manager Roberto De Zerbi from Brighton, who looks like a terrific hire. Highly rated as a technical coach, De Zerbi also has the passion, fight and X factor needed to manage a big club like Marseille. He has generated some excitement down on the south coast of France, the type of waves not seen since Marcelo Bielsa was at the club.
OM have been active in the transfer market, signing Mason Greenwood, Ismael Kone, Bamo Meite and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg, amongst others. The top scorer from last season, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, moves on, but there’s no other significant departure which weakens them. They look like a great bet to win Ligue 1 in the ‘without PSG’ market.
Marseille have one massive advantage compared to nearly all their rivals; they aren’t playing in any European competitions this season. They can focus entirely on Ligue 1 matters, and then after Christmas potentially Le Coupe de France. This will be a relief to Roberto De Zerbi, who himself struggled last year juggling the Europa League and domestic matters with Brighton. It is going to be a massive help for OM to play just once a week. This was an area where Monaco gained a big edge on the field last season and I expect Marseille to be fresh and ready for battle in each game.
This mixture of a new manager, improved squad, better overall feeling around the club and fewer fixtures should lead to Marseille comfortably finishing in the top four; it’s a question of how high. If we take PSG out of the betting, they look like the best of the rest, with perhaps Lyon being the only team that might consistently challenge them over the course of the season. Monaco, Nice, Lens and Lille will have big European distractions, whilst Brest will surely drop down to mid-table this year. The door is open for Marseille to have a strong campaign.
- Ligue 1 Ante-Post Tips: To Win Ligue 1 W/O PSG – Marseille
- Best Odds: 5.0
- Bookmaker: Skybet
- Stake: 6/10
Ligue 1 2024/25 Prediction: Le Havre to finish in the bottom three
Le Havre have lost their manager, Luka Elsner, to Reims. He did a great job here getting them promoted and then staying in the top flight. Taking over is Didier Digard, who was a former player and impressed at Nice during a caretaker spell. But you do wonder how much of an effect Elsner had and how much of an edge they will lose. Les Ciel et Marine had a +5.79 xPoints overachievement last season, thanks mostly to an xGA figure nearly ten higher than it should have been. If those metrics revert back to the mean then it will put them bang in trouble down towards the relegation zone.
They might get fortunate and find a couple of teams worse than them, but this division is not filled with poor teams such as Lorient, Metz & Clermont this season. Auxerre and Angers are two of the favourites for the drop and might find it difficult upon their promotion, but they could be better equipped than some think. St Etienne is a big club, and their sheer support could propel them to safety. It has been a very quiet transfer window both in and out of the club, which might not be a good thing because they could do with freshening up the squad. There’s a big reliance on goalkeeper Arthur Desmas because their attack force, which scored the third-fewest goals in Ligue 1 last season, looks too lightweight.
The Normandy outfit begins the season with a home fixture vs PSG, and six of their first nine games come against teams high in the betting for this campaign. With crunch early matches vs promoted teams St Etienne & Auxerre, if they do get off to a sluggish start, then the pressure is really on. I could see Le Havre being bottom heading into the October international break. Things could escalate from there, and it could be a challenging ‘second season syndrome’ for the club. They offer some value to finish in the bottom three at 2.75 and should be shorter in the market.
- Ligue 1 Ante-Post Tips: To Finish in the Bottom Three – Le Havre
- Best Odds: 2.75
- Bookmaker: Skybet
- Stake: 6/10
Ligue 1 2024/25 Prediction: Georges Mikautadze top Ligue 1 goalscorer
The Ligue 1 Golden Boot race has been very predictable in recent years, with Kylian Mbappe winning or at least sharing the spoils in each of the last six seasons. But with his departure, this market now feels wide open and accessible to anyone who performs strongly. The likes of Goncalo Ramos and Randal Kolo Muani are both high up in the betting, but the goals might be shared around more at PSG this year. In the second half of the season, rotation is always a concern for them as well. Alexandre Lacazette is only just behind Jonathan David in the top scorer market but his new Lyon teammate Georges Mikautadze could be a much better bet at double the price.
Because Lyon has played in a 4-3-3 system quite a lot under Pierre Sage, the presumption in some quarters was that both strikers are fighting for one spot. But we have seen in his career previously and at the recent Olympics that Lacazette can be more versatile out wide or playing in a deeper role. Lyon would be crazy to fork out nearly £20m for one of the red-hot strikers in Europe right now and not start him regularly. Mikautadze had a brilliant Euro 2024 and bagged 13 goals in 20 appearances last season for Metz in what was a relegated team. He is going to get plenty of opportunities for Les Gones, and if he can make himself the ‘main man’, then 15/1 looks like a big price for him to top score.
- Ligue 1 Ante-Post Tips: Top Ligue 1 Goalscorer – Georges Mikautadze
- Best Odds: 16.0
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 2/10
Ligue 1 2024/25 Prediction: Lyon top three finish
I have tipped Lyon to finish in the top four in my other ante-post selections article at a shorter price. That is the safer bet, but I think it’s worth going more aggressively by backing OL to finish in the top three. This also partially covers the Marseille w/o PSG selection. As mentioned before, Lyon has been like an absolute train under Pierre Sage, who has a magnificent record since taking charge of the club. Let’s not forget that he guided them to a 6th place finish last year, so they only need to move up a few spots to get into the top three. Marseille are a massive threat from below who may well overtake them, but Lyon can be confident of passing the likes of Brest & Nice, plus Lille, who are managed by their former boss Bruno Genesio. Monaco is going to have a much tougher year now in the Champions League, and OL is clearly a side on the rise.
Lyon will have to juggle Ligue 1 and European football this season, which will be a challenge and perhaps a reason why they might ultimately fall short of any title challenge. But playing in the Europa League is easier than Champions League games, certainly in the group stage, and Sage will be able to rotate his players around accordingly. Lyon have a big squad and have reinforced well in this window. They have filled some key holes all over the field, but it is their attacking potential with the likes of Lacazette, Mikautadze, Benrahma and Nuamah, not to forget talented Nigerian Gift Orban, which catches the eye. They can outscore pretty much every team if needed.
Ligue 1 Outright Ante-Post Tips Odds via bet365 & Skybet as at 23:44, 8th August 2024 – odds for best bets may now differ.
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