League Two Prediction: Ante-Post Outright Preview

Welcome to our League Two Prediction Ante-Post Outright Preview – the place to get ahead of the game in England’s fourth tier this preseason. Another thrilling campaign in England’s fourth tier is just around the corner with the new season kicking off on Friday, August 9th, 20:00 (UK).

In this exclusive preview, we will dive into the most promising ante-post outright selections, offering you a competitive edge before the first whistle blows. From promotion hopefuls to relegation battlers, Jack Wright is on hand to analyse the odds, dissect the squads, and uncover the hidden gems that could make all the difference in your betting strategy.

League Two 2024/25 Prediction:

• MK Dons England League Two – Winner
• Doncaster England League Two – Top Northern Club
• Carlisle England League Two – Relegation
• Jack Nolan England League Two – Top Goalscorer

League Two 2024/25 Prediction: MK Dons Winners

League Two lost three big hitters last season with Stockport, Wrexham and Mansfield all gaining promotion to the third tier of English football. Each of those clubs were much fancied in the outright markets at this time last year and duly filled the automatic places with relegation favourites Crawley shocking us all by joining them via the play-offs. 

As a result, the 2024/25 renewal at this level looks like a much softer challenge, and there will be a number of clubs who believe they hold justifiable claims of being the ones to lift the trophy come May. Of the relegated quartet none look particularly strong while newly promoted Chesterfield have been installed as market leaders despite six years plying their trade in the National League.

In this preview last year I put forward MK Dons as my each way selection and with question marks over several of the leading contenders I am doing exactly the same again. With odds this time around of 9.00 compared to the 19.00 we snapped up last term there is a clear indication of the progress the beaten play-off semi-finalists have made in 12-months. 

Long-standing Chairman Pete Winkelman wasted no time in ending the tenure of head coach Graham Alexander after just 16 games in charge but pulled off a masterstroke in appointing Mike Williamson. The former Gateshead boss guided his new charges from 16th up to a finishing position of fourth accumulating 62 points from his 33 league matches in charge at an average of 1.88 per game.

Williamson at the helm

Continue that across the full 46 fixtures this term, and the Dons will rack up 86 points, the exact same total that third-placed Mansfield ended on in the last campaign. In fact, that tally would have been enough to have gained automatic promotion in each of the last 15 completed League Two campaigns. Ironically, the MK Dons title-winning season of 2007/08 was the last time the top three all compiled 87 points or more.

Across those season’s 86 points would have achieved a third-place finish on five occasions, claimed a runners-up spot thrice and was enough to clinch the title seven times. I have discounted the 2019/20 season which was prematurely ended due to COVID.

A disastrous 8-1 aggregate defeat to Crawley in that play-off semi-final highlighted a defensive fragility that was prevalent throughout the second half of the campaign. However, it is clear rectifying that has been at the forefront of their summer recruitment drive. 

Bringing in tried and tested operators at this level such as Luke Offord and Laurence Maguire who were regulars for clubs that finished in the top seven last year. Sam Sherring and Tom Carroll drop down a tier after signing from Northampton and Exeter respectively.

Equally crucial was the acquisition of a ball-playing goalkeeper. The signing on loan from Brighton of Canadian international Tom McGill, who was part of his nation’s squad for this summer’s Copa America, appears to be a tick in that particular box. 

The departure of top-scorer Max Dean leaves a void but MK moved quickly to snap up his replacement Callum Hendry from Salford. Adding to the likes of Ellis Harrison and Matthew Dennis that should be enough firepower to feature prominently at the top of the division. 

Keep the highly regarded Williamson in the dugout for the duration of the campaign and odds of 9.00 will look a nice slice of value.

• League Two Ante-Post Tips: MK Dons League Two Winners (Each Way) (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 9.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

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League Two 2024/25 Prediction: Doncaster Top Northern Club

Another side I expect to feature towards the top of the division this season is Doncaster. Rovers had a wretched first two thirds of their campaign last time around, winless in their opening seven fixtures in the fourth tier, losing five. 

A 5-1 home thrashing by Stockport at the end of January had them nervously looking over their shoulder. A 1-1 draw with second-bottom Sutton in their next game saw Grant McCann’s men fall to 22nd in the table with just 29 points from 29 games. What was to follow can only be described as extraordinary.

They suffered just one defeat in the remaining 17 League Two fixtures, collecting an incredible 42 points while scoring at an average of 2.35 goals per game in the process. A relentless surge up the table to fifth seemed to be showing no signs of halting as Donny won their play-off semi-final first leg 2-0 at Crewe. A shock defeat by the same scoreline and an exit on penalties meant there was to be no fairytale ending at Wembley. 

McCann will be looking to make it third time lucky at the Eco-Power Stadium after also losing on penalties in the 2019 League One semi-final with the club. That previous good spell, coupled with a crippling injury crisis last season, meant he was afforded plenty of patience by Rovers fans. Something he will look to repay this term as he aims to replicate his League One title success when manager of Hull.

Donny Reinforcements

Summer reinforcements have been impressive, and I am particularly looking forward to seeing Joe Sbarra perform in the fourth tier after monitoring his impressive body of work at Solihull Moors for a few years now. With Goalkeeper being such a crucial position, it was vital Rovers replaced Thimothée Lo-Tutala after his return to Hull following his successful loan. Chelsea’s Teddy Sharman-Lowe, who has represented England at the U-19 and U-20 levels, takes his place. 

Odds of 11.00 to win the league, 3.00 to gain promotion and 1.91 for a top-seven finish all make appeal. But it is the Regional market that catches my eye and warrants a 10/10 rating for my TRACKED BETS at odds of 2.20.

Doncaster are in the Northern section alongside Bradford, Grimsby and Harrogate. Avoid the disastrous start of last season and McCann’s men should finish well clear of their three rivals. 

The Bantams are second favourites in this market but I have them marked down for a mid-table finish. They ended with a flourish last term to claim 9th place but their inconsistency was highlighted by having two four game winning streaks balanced out by two four game losing streaks. Graham Alexander is the man in charge who we mentioned for his brief spell at MK Dons and I feel his style of play doesn’t suit the players that make up his squad. 

Grimsby won only seven of David Artell’s 27 games in charge after replacing the sacked Paul Hurst as they finished fourth bottom, while Harrogate have lost key players from last season and should struggle for goals. Neither have the lofty expectations of our selection, with avoidance of ever being in a relegation battle a more realistic goal for the pair. 

• League Two Ante-Post Tips: Doncaster Top Northern Club (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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League Two 2024/25 Prediction: Carlisle Relegation

Momentum is a huge thing in sport both positive and negative. After seven seasons in the EFL Forest Green finished rock-bottom of the fourth tier last term and will be soon starting their National League campaign. 

After a first ever promotion to League One in 2022 Rovers were on the up. An immediate return to League Two followed and the last campaign saw them sit in the bottom two for much of the season. 

As is the case with most capitulations there is instability behind the scenes and a manager’s office with a revolving door. FGR had three managers last season, David Horseman overseeing 29 games before being replaced by Troy Deeney whose disastrous tenure lasted just six matches with Steve Cotterill unable to work the miracle and avoid the drop.

With no absolute obvious contenders for the two relegation places I was keen to explore the opportunity of one of the League One fallen to follow Forest Green’s example and go “back-to-back”. None look rock solid bounce back material so I have taken a couple of factors to come to my selection. 

I eliminated Port Vale, who have a steady hand on the rudder in the shape of Darren Moore. They certainly have money to spend relative to the level and this year’s competition and have used it wisely to make some shrewd additions to their squad. 

Where’s the value?

With an owner in prison Fleetwood certainly tick the “off-field instability” box and in Charlie Adam they do also have an inexperienced manager. However he showed promising signs at the back end of last season guiding his side to wins in three of their last four games and only losing four of their final 13 appearances in the third tier. 

As former loans manager at Burnley you would also expect the former Scotland international to have a decent enough contacts book to ensure at least consolidation for the Cod Army. With ownership passing to the former owner’s son and the ensuing transfer activity it suggests that goal should be achieved without too much fuss. 

Cheltenham massively tempted me. After an incredible journey of almost constant upward trajectory, the Robins stalled, with both key players and staff departing for new pastures. They now appear in regression and have brought back Gary Johnson as a Director of Football who has installed Michael Flynn as manager. Hitting the ground running could be crucial.

But as always, the key has to be value. With Cheltenham priced up at 11.00 for the drop, the deciding factor is being able to get Carlisle on-side at nearly double those odds. The Cumbrians have been trimmed in slightly since they first appeared on my radar, but they still offer some juice at 19.00.

Carlise have new owners with the American based Castle Sports Group taking over at the back end of last year. The Piatak family have invested heavily into the playing staff this summer as they did in January. Those additions didn’t work then and so there is no guarantee the latest recruits will work the oracle either. 

Paul Simpson’s side were abysmal last season, finishing rock bottom with a paltry 30 points to their name. Eleven less than any other side, 14 behind Cheltenham and 16 adrift of safety conceding 81 goals in the process of losing 65% of their league games. Old habits die hard.

An exasperated Simpson regularly fired off public rebukes to his underperforming charges last term, and the fact that he remains in situ might leave a sour taste in the mouths of more than a few of the remaining squad. To add further fuel to the fire, he was up to his old tricks following the recent 2-0 friendly defeat to non-league Gateshead, who also missed two penalties in their penultimate game before the season kicks off.

The Cumbrians second successive loss to National League opposition prompted the manager to give a post match on-pitch dressing down to his beleaguered squad. 

Forest Green were unable to halt the negative momentum of a relegation where they had won only 27 points and I would be pricing Carlisle a lot shorter than 19.00 given the similarities they share with last season’s League Two bottom club.

• League Two Ante-Post Tips: Carlisle League Two Relegation
• Best Odds: 19.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 4/10

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League Two 2024/25 Prediction: Jack Nolan Top Goalscorer

I wanted to end this preview with something of a long shot and there is no better market than top scorer. Especially without the obvious contenders we had last season. 

The Golden Boot was won by Notts County’s Macaulay Langstaff, who we know won’t be retaining the award after joining Millwall this summer. I will be hoping for better luck than my pick of 12 months ago. Paul Mullin punctured his lung the evening before the preview went live, although he still ended up with a share of second place. 

We did, however, land a full win in League One with Alfie May at odds of 17.00. So, let’s identify some potential contenders and look at what factors are most important in a top goalscorer pick.

Ideally we want a player from a club with an attack minded style and who is generally injury free. League Two is a breeding ground for future stars, can we pick out a new signing set for a breakthrough season, or who looks set to follow one up with an even better campaign and compete with the goalscoring veterans. 

The Consistent Performer? Andy Cook is the ante-post favourite, having hit double figures in each of Bradford’s last three seasons. He has averaged 43 games over those campaigns, which gives him ample opportunity to add another Golden Boot to the one he won in 2022/23. 

The Rising Star? Could Lorent Tolaj follow up his impressive 19-goal return in the National League with Aldershot with a similar haul for new club Port Vale?

A product of the Brighton Academy, the former Swiss youth international set a record in 2019 for the most goals scored in a single under-19 Euro qualifier when he bagged four in each half against Gibraltar. He could thrive off a partnership with target man Jayden Stockley.

The New Signing? Maybe Charlie Wyke can rediscover the form that saw him plunder 14 goals in 26 league games for Carlisle the last time he appeared at this level. A total close to the 26 he hit in 2021, his most prolific season in League One with Sunderland, will certainly put him well in the running. 

Dark horse tempting a gallop

But my dark horse selection is Jack Nolan of Gillinham and not just because of his fantastic first name. He will be working for a manager in Mark Bonner who despite still only being 38 has a proven track record at this level having won promotion with Cambridge in 2021. 

Owners Brad and Shannon Galinson crave success for the Gills and have backed Bonner to deliver it. Gone is the slow, patient build-up style of former boss Stephen Clemence and in its place a faster, more direct approach which suits Nolan down to the ground. 

The 23-year-old enjoyed a breakout season at Accrington last term playing in all bar one league game with only one of his teammates playing more minutes for the club. He cracked in an impressive 17 goals for Stanley generally playing on the right before cutting in on to his favoured left foot.

Nolan has already showcased the threat he brings to his new club with a fantastic breakaway goal against Watford. Streaking clear from the halfway line before cutting inside and finishing well from the edge of the box. Also hitting the back of the net in the defeat of Southend as well as demonstrating he possesses great quality from set-piece situations. 

Given that last season he matched the goal output of the current favourite in this year’s market, and has moved to a club likely to be challenging around the playoffs with a system that suits him stylistically, this looks a massive price. An each-way play will give a healthy return even if Nolan doesn’t win the Golden Boot but can finish in the top four League Two goal scorers.    

• League Two Ante-Post Tips: Jack Nolan League Two Top Goalscorer (Each Way) (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 67.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 2/10

League Two Outright Ante-Post Tips Odds via bet365 as at 09:00, 2nd August 2024 – odds for best bets may now differ.

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