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Horse Racing History Says.....Favourites Win Penalty Shootouts
What is the average number of goals scored in a European championship extra time? Are penalty shootouts a matter of luck? Do favourites win more often in penalty shootouts?
In this article:
- Euro Extra Time Average Goals
- Do Favourites win in Extra Time?
- Do Favourites win Euro penalty shootouts?
In this analysis we will look at the average number of goals scored in extra time periods through the history of the European championship. We will also consider how often favourites win extra time periods. Further we will look at how often favourites win penalty shootouts.
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- Match Result (1X2)
- Handicap Betting
- Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)
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Euro Extra Time Average Goals
Extra time periods often witness defensive play. As both teams fatigue, neither desires to concede a decisive goal that could lead to elimination from the tournament.
However, this hasn’t always been the trend. The table below illustrates the average number of goals scored in extra time periods throughout various European championships.
Table 1: Average Goals Scored in Euro Extra Time
| Euro | ET Games | Ave 90 min Goals | Ave ET Goals |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 1 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| 1964 | 1 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| 1968 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| 1976 | 3 | 3.33 | 1.33 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| 1992 | 1 | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| 1996 | 5 | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| 2000 | 3 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| 2004 | 3 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| 2008 | 3 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| 2012 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 2016 | 5 | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| 2021 | 8 | 2.75 | 0.88 |
| TOTAL | 39 | 1.64 | 0.74 |
We can see in the table above that average goals in a match that extends to extra time is just 1.64. This is expected considering the lower the score, the greater the chance of a match extending to extra time.
We can also see that the average number of goals scored in extra time periods has been 0.74 goals, which is the equivalent rate of 2.22 goals per 90 minutes.
Do Favourites Win in Extra time?
First, let’s examine the likelihood of a team winning during extra time. The table below displays the number of extra time periods won by teams with a handicap of at least -0.25 in the Asian handicap market throughout each European championship since 2000. Matches with a +0 handicap have been excluded from this analysis.
Table 2: Euro Extra time and Penalty Shootout results by Asian handicap line since 2000
| AH Line | ET Games | Won ET | Draw ET | Lost ET | Won Pens | Lost Pens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -0.75 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| -0.5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| -0.25 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| TOTAL | 19 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
Since 2000, favorites have emerged victorious in 5 out of 19 extra time periods. Meanwhile, 10 out of the 19 periods have resulted in a tie, leading to penalty shootouts to determine the winner.
Among matches where the favored team had a handicap of -0.5 goals or higher, they’ve won 5 out of 12 games, while the underdogs have only won 2.
Shifting focus to the World Cup, nations beginning as favorites with a handicap of at least -0.25 in the Asian handicap market have secured victories in only 7 out of 33 extra time periods. Interestingly, 20 out of the 33 periods have concluded in a draw, paving the way for penalty shootouts.
For teams starting as favorites with a handicap of at least -0.5 goals, they’ve won 6 out of 18 extra time periods. On the contrary, underdogs with a handicap of +0.75 or greater in the Asian handicap market have never clinched a victory in a World Cup extra time period.
Table 3: World Cup Extra time and Penalty Shootout results by Asian handicap line since 1998
| AH Line | ET Games | Won ET | Draw ET | Lost ET | Won Pens | Lost Pens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| -1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| -0.75 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| -0.5 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| -0.25 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| TOTAL* | 33 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 6 |
Do Favourites Win Penalty Shootouts?
Now, let’s examine penalty shootouts. Since the 1998 World Cup, favorites have emerged victorious in 20 out of 30 penalty shootouts across both the World Cup and Euro tournaments.
Notably, although it’s based on a limited sample size, favorites with a handicap of -0.5 or higher have won 9 out of 16 penalty shootouts. It’s not exactly a decisive victory.
Table 4: World Cup and Euro Extra time and Penalty Shootout results by Asian handicap line since 1998
| AH Line | ET Games | Won ET | Draw ET | Lost ET | Won Pens | Lost Pens |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| -1 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| -0.75 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| -0.5 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| -0.25 | 22 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 3 |
| TOTAL | 52 | 12 | 30 | 10 | 20 | 10 |
We can also see that combined, favourites have won just 12 of 52 extra time periods in the World Cup and European championships since 1998 with underdogs winning 10. A total of 30 of the 52 extra time periods extended to penalties, a rate of 58%.
Further favourites of -0.5 or greater have won 11 of 30 extra time periods, with underdogs of at least +0.5 in the Asian handicap market winning just 3 of the 30.
Conclusion: Favourites Win Penalty Shootouts
As mentioned earlier, despite the limited data, it seems that favorites tend to prevail more frequently in both penalty shootouts and extra time. Yet, considering the small sample sizes, some may argue that this observation could be influenced by confirmation bias.
Moreover, while lesser-ranked nations may perceive reaching a penalty shootout as advantageous, any actual increase in their chances seems to be incidental, if present at all.
Ultimately, superior quality tends to triumph even amidst the pressure of a World Cup extra time or penalty shootout.
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