History Says... Bet On Under 2.5 Goals In the Euro Knockout Stage

Are there less goals at the Euros than domestic football? What is the average number of goals scored at the Euros? Has it been profitable to bet on under 2.5 goals at the Euros?

In this article:

• Euro Average Goals
• Euro Average Goals by Tournament Stage
• Betting on Euro Goal Totals

In this analysis, we’ll examine the average goal totals at the competition ahead of Euro 2024 and peak at the average goal total by tournament stage.

Additionally, we’ll assess the profitability of betting on the under 2.5 goals market during both the group stage and knockout phase of the tournament.

For this analysis, we’ve excluded 3rd place playoffs, and goal totals are based on normal time, with extra time not considered. Betting results are calculated based on even stakes, with a single unit placed on each outcome in the market.

Summary of Conclusions:

• Average number of goals scored through the history of the European championships is 2.37 goals.
• Betting on under 2.5 goals at even stakes through the knockout phase has earned a profit of 5.6%.
• Betting on under 2.5 goals at even stakes through the semi finals and finals has earned a profit of 22.9%.

But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

WHAT WILL YOU FIND IN THE GUIDE?

Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

• Match Result (1X2)
• Handicap Betting
• Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

• 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
• 24 team-by-team articles
• BETSiE projections for every team and group
• Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

Download the guide

European Championships: Average Goals Scored

Let’s start with the fundamentals: the average goals scored at the Euros. The table below illustrates the average number of goals scored at each European championship.

Table 1: Average goals scored at Euro tournaments

The average number of goals scored in the Euro match throughout the history of the tournament is 2.37. This number has remained rather steady, with the average number of goals scored since the 1996 tournament resting likewise at 2.37.

Since the tournament expansion of 1996, the tournament of 2000 saw the highest average number of goals scored, at 2.68 per match while the 1996 tournament itself saw the lowest average, at just 2.03 goals per match.

European Championships: Average Goals by Tournament Stage

Let’s have a look at goal totals by tournament stage. Below we can see the average number of goals scored throughout the history of the Euros by stage of the tournament since the first tournament of 1960.

Table 3 Average goals scored at Euro tournaments by nation

We can see that there has been little difference in the number of goals scored through the group stage and knockout round play. But have bookmakers account for this? Let’s take a look.

Betting on European Championship Goal Totals

In another analysis we examined the profitability of betting on the draw at the Euros. We found that backing the draw was profitable during the knockout stage.

Considering that a draw is more probable in a match with fewer goals, we wonder if we observe a similar profitability during the knockout stage when backing under 2.5 goals.

Table 4: Performance in over under 2.5 goals at Euro tournaments

If you had placed bets at even stakes on under 2.5 goals in every Euro match since the 2000 tournament, you would have experienced a loss of -0.44 units across 226 matches.

However, if you had wagered on under 2.5 goals in just the knockout stage at even stakes, you would have gained a profit of 3.23 units from 58 matches. Conversely, betting on under 2.5 goals during the group stage would have resulted in a loss of -3.67 units from 168 matches.

The table below illustrates the profitability of betting on under 2.5 goals at even stakes across each stage of the tournament.

Table 5: Performance in over under 2.5 goals at Euro tournaments by stage

We can see that backing under 2.5 goals, a profit has been returned from the quarter final stage onwards with the semi finals and final being the most profitable in terms of return on investment.

In fact if you had bet under 2.5 goals in just the semi finals and finals, you would have seen a profit of 4.12 units from 18 matches, a return on investment of 22.9%.

Conclusion: Back Under 2.5 goals in the knockout stage

Although betting on under 2.5 goals throughout the group stage hasn’t yielded a profit, we’ve observed that betting on under 2.5 goals during the knockout stage has been profitable, consistently so in each round.

Major international football tournaments are known for their low goal counts, as teams often adopt a cautious approach, particularly in the knockout stages. While recent tournaments have seen relatively few goals, the knockout stages have seen even fewer than bookmakers anticipated.

While we don’t advocate blindly betting on under 2.5 goals in this year’s Euro knockout stage, we recommend considering the historical performance of such markets.

• Football betting analysis at bettingexpert News
• World Cup betting analysis at bettingexpert News

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