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Mixed martial arts History Says... Back Profitable Qualifiers at the Euros
Do nations that perform well in their Euro qualification campaigns maintain their profitability in the Euro Championships proper? Or do they falter in the actual tournament? This article examines the profitability of backing successful qualification nations in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets, with a focus on the upcoming 2024 Euros.
In this article:
- Backing Profitable Qualifications Nations: 1X2 Market
- Backing Profitable Qualifications Nations: Asian Handicap Market
- Backing Profitable Qualification Nations for the 2024 Euro
To begin we will consider the performance of nations in the 1X2 market during both Euro qualification group play and the tournament itself. Profitability is determined by the total profit or loss if betting on a nation to win each qualification match at even stakes. Data from Euro 2004 onwards is analysed, adjusted for a standard 4.5% margin, and matches that went into extra time were ruled by the result at regulation time.
Summary of Conclusions:
- Backing nations in the 1X2 market in the Euros that were profitable through qualification group play earned a profit of 7.68%.
- Backing nations in the 1X2 market in the Euros that were profitable through qualification group play was not profitable through the knockout stage.
- Backing nations in the Asian handicap market in the Euros that were profitable through qualification group play earned a profit of 5.92%..
- Entering the 2024 Euros, a total of 14 nations were profitable through qualification group play.
But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!
WHAT WILL YOU FIND IN THE GUIDE?
Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:
- Match Result (1X2)
- Handicap Betting
- Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)
Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:
- 8 historical tournament analysis articles
- 24 team-by-team articles
- BETSiE projections for every team and group
- Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes
For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:
Backing Profitable Qualification Nations: 1X2 Market
If we had bet on every nation that made a profit in the 1X2 market during Euro qualification, and continued to do so in each corresponding Euro tournament, we would have gained a profit of +9.46 units out of a total of 237 units placed, resulting in a return on investment of +3.99%.
However, this calculation includes matches where two profitable nations competed against each other.
If we exclude these matchups and only focus on games where profitable nations faced unprofitable ones, along with host nations that automatically qualified, and bet accordingly in the 1X2 market, we would have made a profit of +7.76 units over 101 units placed.
Table 1: Performance of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable and automatically qualified nations in the Euro 1X2 market
| Euro | Games | W | D | L | Win P/L | WIN ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 4.42 | 31.57% |
| 2008 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 3.04 | 19.00% |
| 2012 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 0.36 | 2.25% |
| 2016 | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | -5.24 | -18.71% |
| 2021 | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 5.18 | 19.19% |
| TOTAL | 101 | 36 | 29 | 36 | 7.76 | 7.68% |
Profitable qualification nations have generated a profit in every Euro tournament since 2004, except for 2016, which resulted in a loss of 5.24 units with the most successful tournament, the Euro of 2021 returning the greatest profit of 5.18 units..
Breaking down the data by tournament stage reveals the following:
Table 2: Performance of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable and automatically qualified nations in the Euro 1X2 market by stage
| Euro STAGE | Games | W | D | L | Win P/L | WIN ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | 78 | 29 | 19 | 30 | 8.98 | 11.51% |
| KO | 23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | -1.22 | -5.30% |
| TOTAL | 101 | 36 | 29 | 36 | 7.76 | 7.68% |
The group stage has been where most of the profit lies, with nearly 9 units gained from 78 units staked, resulting in a return of almost 12% profit. Conversely, backing such nations in the knockout stage of the tournament has been unprofitable.
Backing Profitable Qualification Nations: Asian Handicap Market
Now, let’s examine the Asian handicap market for backing profitable nations against unprofitable ones.
If we had backed each profitable qualification nation against unprofitable qualification and automatically qualified nations in each Euro tournament since 2004 in the Asian handicap market, we would have seen a profit of approximately +5.98u across the 101 units staked, yielding an almost 6% return.
Table 3: Performance of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable and automatically qualified nations in the Euro Asian handicap market
| Euro | Games | AH Win | AH Loss | AH Win P/L | AH WIN ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 3.38 | 24.14% |
| 2008 | 16 | 8.75 | 7.25 | 1.01 | 6.31% |
| 2012 | 16 | 8.75 | 7.25 | 1.13 | 7.06% |
| 2016 | 28 | 14 | 14 | -1.015 | -3.63% |
| 2021 | 27 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 1.475 | 5.46% |
| TOTAL | 101 | 55 | 46 | 5.98 | 5.92% |
We can see that each tournament returned a profit except again for the 2016 Euro which returned a loss of just over 1 unit while the tournament of 2004 delivered a profit of +3.38u.
All told backing profitable qualification nations hit at a strike rate of 54.5%.
If we break down the performance of such teams by stage we see the following:
Table 4: Performance of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable and automatically qualified nations in the Euro Asian handicap market by stage
| Euro | Games | AH Win | AH Loss | AH Win P/L | ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group | 78 | 42.5 | 35.5 | 4.715 | 6.04% |
| KO | 23 | 12.5 | 10.5 | 1.265 | 5.50% |
| TOTAL | 101 | 55 | 46 | 5.98 | 5.92% |
In contrast to the 1X2 market, profitable qualification nations show a profit in both the knockout stage and the group stage, with returns on investment surpassing 5% in both cases.
Backing Profitable Qualification Nations for the 2024 Euro
Now, let’s explore which nations were profitable in the 1X2 market during their qualification for the 2024 Euros.
Nations that were 1X2 profitable: Euro 2024 qualification
Here are the nations that were profitable in the 1X2 market during the Euro 2024 qualification.
A total of 14 nations were profitable when supported at even stakes throughout the qualification group stage for the 2024 Euros with Scotland delivering the greatest results of just over 6 units profit.
Table 5: Nations that were profitable through qualification group play entering Euro 2024
| Nation | WON | DrawN | LosT | WIN Profit / Loss | EURO Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6.16 | A |
| Hungary | 5 | 3 | 0 | 3.94 | A |
| Turkey | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3.62 | F |
| Slovakia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3.44 | E |
| Romania | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2.50 | E |
| Albania | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2.38 | B |
| Portugal | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2.09 | F |
| Austria | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2.06 | D |
| France | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2.00 | D |
| Slovenia | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1.76 | C |
| Belgium | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1.46 | E |
| Spain | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1.14 | B |
| England | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0.74 | C |
| Netherlands | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0.47 | D |
Nations that were 1X2 unprofitable: Euro 2024 qualification
This leaves the following 9 nations as unprofitable in the 1X2 market through their Euro qualification group play with Germany the automatic qualified hosts:
Table 6: Nations that were not profitable through qualification group play entering Euro 2024
| Nation | Win | Draw | Loss | Profit / Loss | EURO Group |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia | 5 | 1 | 2 | -0.83 | B |
| Denmark | 7 | 1 | 2 | -0.97 | C |
| Czech Republic | 4 | 3 | 1 | -2.16 | F |
| Serbia | 4 | 2 | 2 | -2.39 | C |
| Italy | 4 | 2 | 2 | -3.25 | B |
| Switzerland | 4 | 5 | 1 | -5.26 | A |
| Ukraine | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1.90 | E |
| Poland | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3.92 | D |
| Georgia | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4.64 | F |
Matchups to consider for Euro 2024
Which group stage matches are worth considering given this trend? There are a total of 22 matches during the group stage of Euro 2024 where profitable qualification teams are up against unprofitable qualification teams, including matchups for Scotland and Hungary facing the automatically qualified Germany.
Table 7: Euro 2024 group matchups of profitable qualification nations vs unprofitable qualification nations
| Group | Profitable | vs | Unprofitable | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Scotland | vs | Germany | 14th June |
| A | Hungary | vs | Switzerland | 15th June |
| B | Albania | vs | Italy | 15th June |
| B | Spain | vs | Croatia | 15th June |
| C | Slovenia | vs | Denmark | 16th June |
| D | Netherlands | vs | Poland | 16th June |
| C | England | vs | Serbia | 16th June |
| E | Romania | vs | Ukraine | 17th June |
| F | Turkey | vs | Georgia | 18th June |
| F | Portugal | vs | Czech Rep | 18th June |
| A | Hungary | vs | Germany | 19th June |
| A | Scotland | vs | Switzerland | 19th June |
| B | Albania | vs | Croatia | 19th June |
| B | Spain | vs | Italy | 20th June |
| C | Slovenia | vs | Serbia | 20th June |
| C | England | vs | Denmark | 20th June |
| D | Austria | vs | Poland | 21st June |
| E | Slovakia | vs | Ukraine | 21st June |
| D | France | vs | Poland | 25th June |
| E | Belgium | vs | Ukraine | 26th June |
| F | Turkey | vs | Czech Rep | 26th June |
| F | Portugal | vs | Georgia | 26th June |
Conclusion: Back Profitable Qualification Nations
Firstly, the standard disclaimer applies. Past success in this trend doesn’t ensure future profitability. Additionally, we’re analysing data from just five tournaments. It’s crucial not to blindly follow this trend but rather consider it when making bets for Euro 2024.
Nevertheless, we can observe a trend where nations that excel in the 1X2 market during qualification tend to maintain their performance when reaching the tournament proper. This pattern holds true for both 1X2 and Asian handicap betting, especially during the group stage of the respective Euro tournaments.
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