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Horse Racing History Says....Bet Against Host Nations at the Euros
What is home advantage worth at the Euros? This analysis aims to quantify the value of home advantage across the history of the European championship. We will assesses the margin by which host nations enhance their performance when playing at home versus on neutral ground. Additionally, we will investigate the profitability of betting on host nations during Euro matches.
In this article:
But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!
WHAT WILL YOU FIND IN THE GUIDE?
Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:
- Match Result (1X2)
- Handicap Betting
- Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)
Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:
- 8 historical tournament analysis articles
- 24 team-by-team articles
- BETSiE projections for every team and group
- Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes
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We will consider the performance of host nations spanning the entire history of the Euros. By contrasting the performance of host nations against their performances on neutral venues, we aim to discern host advantage in terms of goal difference and win percentage.
Additionally, we examine the profitability of backing host nations in the 1X2 and Asian handicaps markets since the Euro tournament of 2000.
For clarity, results of knockout stage matches are determined through regulation time, while 3rd place playoffs have been omitted from the analysis. Furthermore, all betting outcomes are based on betting at even stakes, meaning the return you would receive from betting one unit on each potential outcome in the given betting market.
Host Advantage at the Euros
Let’s start with the basics. How have host nations performed throughout the history of the European championships? The table below displays the performance of each host in terms of goals scored, conceded, and match results.
Table 1: Host performance for each Euro tournament
| YEAR | HOST | MATCHES | AVE GF | AVE GA | AVE GD | Won | Draw | Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1960 | France | 2 | 2.00 | 3.50 | -1.50 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 1964 | Spain | 2 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 1968 | Italy | 3 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 1972 | Belgium | 2 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 1976 | Yugoslavia | 2 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 1980 | Italy | 4 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 1984 | France | 5 | 2.40 | 0.60 | 1.80 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 1988 | Germany | 4 | 1.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1992 | Sweden | 4 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 1996 | England | 5 | 1.60 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 2000 | Belgium/Netherlands | 8 | 1.88 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 5 | 1 | 2 |
| 2004 | Portugal | 6 | 1.17 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 2008 | Austria/Switzerland | 6 | 0.67 | 1.00 | -0.33 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2012 | Poland/Ukraine | 6 | 0.67 | 1.17 | -0.50 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 2016 | France | 7 | 1.86 | 0.57 | 1.29 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| 2021 | Multiple hosts | 27 | 1.52 | 0.96 | 0.56 | 13 | 7 | 7 |
| TOTAL | 93 | 1.45 | 0.95 | 0.51 | 42 | 28 | 23 |
In total, hosts have played 93 matches, earning an average of 1.66 match points per match. Across all European championship matches, hosts or otherwise, the average points earned per match is 1.35.
In terms of scoring, hosts average 1.45 goals per match while conceding 0.95 goals. The overall average goals per match, including all Euro matches, is 1.18 both for and against.
But what is the actual value of host advantage?
Comparing overall results for host nations to the tournament average doesn’t reveal the true advantage of playing at home during the Euros.
While hosts have performed above average, this could be because host nations are typically stronger teams. Nations like Germany, Italy, France, England, and Spain have each hosted the tournament.
To better understand host performance, let’s compare the performance of host nations during Euros they’ve hosted to their performance in Euros they didn’t host.
The table below shows the performance of each nation that hosted a Euro in matches where they weren’t hosts.
Table 2: Performance of nations when not hosting Euros
| NATION | MATCHES | AVE GF | AVE GA | AVE GD | Won | Draw | Lost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL | 412 | 1.22 | 1.16 | 0.06 | 144 | 138 | 130 |
Overall, nations that hosted Euros earned 1.38 points per match when not hosting, compared to 1.66 points per match when hosting.
The hosts’ win percentage increased from 35% when not hosting to 45.2% when hosting. The draw percentage decreased from 33.5% to 30.1%, and the loss rate dropped from 31.6% to 24.7%.
In terms of scoring, hosts improved from a goal difference of +0.06 goals per match when not hosting to +0.51 when hosting.
We can then conclude that home field advantage across the entire history of the European championships, in terms of goal difference, has been +0.45 goals per match.
How does this compare to domestic football?
Below are the average goals for and against for home teams in the last five non-COVID impacted seasons across Europe’s big five leagues.
Table 4: Home advantage in big five leagues of Europe since 2016/17 (excluding 2020/21)
| LEAGUE | AVE GF | AVE GA | AVE GD |
|---|---|---|---|
| England Premier League | 1.55 | 1.22 | 0.32 |
| France Ligue Un | 1.53 | 1.12 | 0.40 |
| Germany Bundesliga | 1.69 | 1.34 | 0.35 |
| Italy Serie A | 1.55 | 1.30 | 0.25 |
| Spain La Liga | 1.50 | 1.14 | 0.37 |
| AVERAGE | 1.56 | 1.22 | 0.34 |
The home advantage in Euros has been significantly greater than current domestic home advantage.
However, home advantage has been decreasing in domestic football over recent years. The table below shows home advantage in the English first division by decade since 1920.
Table 5: Home advantage in English first division by decade (excluding 2020/21)
| DECADE | HOME GF | AWAY GF | HOME GD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1920 – 1929 | 1.94 | 1.14 | 0.8 |
| 1930 – 1939 | 2.19 | 1.3 | 0.89 |
| 1940 – 1949 | 1.79 | 1.21 | 0.58 |
| 1950 – 1959 | 2 | 1.34 | 0.66 |
| 1960 – 1969 | 1.95 | 1.3 | 0.65 |
| 1970 – 1979 | 1.55 | 1 | 0.55 |
| 1980 – 1989 | 1.59 | 1.05 | 0.54 |
| 1990 – 1999 | 1.52 | 1.09 | 0.43 |
| 2000 – 2009 | 1.5 | 1.09 | 0.41 |
| 2010 – 2019 | 1.57 | 1.18 | 0.39 |
| 2020 – 2023 | 1.54 | 1.25 | 0.29 |
| Since 1920 | 1.76 | 1.17 | 0.59 |
Home advantage has steadily diminished over the years, likely due to various factors such as increased travel comfort for players, freer travel for away fans, and reduced likelihood of officials favoring home teams due to media scrutiny.
Given the small sample size of Euro matches and the fact that host nations play only 3 to 7 Euro matches every four years, it’s difficult to determine whether host advantage is diminishing in international football.
Home Advantage During Euro Qualification
The table below shows home advantage for Euro qualification group play matches from 1996 to the end of qualification group play for the 2024 Euros.
Table 6: Home advantage in Euro group qualification since 1996
| Euro Campaign | Ave Home GF | Ave Away GF | Ave GD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1996 | 1.75 | 1.19 | 0.56 |
| 2000 | 1.66 | 1.18 | 0.48 |
| 2004 | 1.58 | 1.11 | 0.47 |
| 2008 | 1.55 | 1.18 | 0.37 |
| 2012 | 1.55 | 1.15 | 0.4 |
| 2016 | 1.42 | 1.19 | 0.23 |
| 2020 | 1.79 | 1.36 | 0.43 |
| 2024 | 1.65 | 1.22 | 0.43 |
| TOTAL | 1.61 | 1.2 | 0.41 |
Home advantage in Euro qualification has been significant, with an average goal difference of +0.41 goals for home teams, aligning roughly with our assessment of host advantage for hosts at the Euros of +0.45 goals.
Betting on Euro Host Nations
So let’s take a look at backing host nations. In this analysis, I’ll look at both 1X2 and Asian handicap betting for Euros from 2000 to 2021. Odds are adjusted to a standard 4.5% market commission with results determined at even stakes, meaning betting one unit on each possible outcome.
Table 7: Performance of Euro host nations in the 1X2 betting market
| YEAR | HOST | MATCHES | Win P/L | Draw P/L | Lost P/L | Win ROI% | Draw ROI% | Lost ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Belgium/Netherlands | 8 | 1.98 | -4.64 | -0.86 | 24.8% | -58.0% | -10.8% |
| 2004 | Portugal | 6 | 0.90 | -2.83 | 5.98 | 15.0% | -47.2% | 99.7% |
| 2008 | Austria/Switzerland | 6 | -2.77 | -2.66 | 3.42 | -46.2% | -44.3% | 57.0% |
| 2012 | Poland/Ukraine | 6 | -3.33 | 0.47 | 1.38 | -55.5% | 7.8% | 23.0% |
| 2016 | France | 7 | 1.28 | -1.12 | -7.00 | 18.3% | -16.0% | -100.0% |
| 2021 | Multiple hosts | 27 | -5.64 | 11.75 | -1.16 | -20.9% | 43.5% | -4.3% |
| TOTAL | 60 | -7.58 | 0.97 | 1.76 | -12.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% |
The table above shows 1X2 profitability at even stakes for host nations since 2000. As we can see, it hasn’t been profitable to straight up support host nations at the Euros.
Betting on hosts to win would have resulted in a loss of 12.6%, while backing them to draw would have seen a1.6% profit. Betting against them would have returned a profit of 2.9%.
Since 2000, the only host nations to return a profit in the 1X2 market at even stakes were Belgium and Netherlands in 2000, Portugal in 2004, and France in 2016.
The worst performance for host nations was in 2021 when multiple nations hosted Euro matches.
Results were similar when backing hosts in the Asian handicap market. Backing host nations in the Asian handicap market would have seen a loss of 10.2%, while betting against them returned a profit of 5.7%.
Table 8: Performance of Euro host nations in the Asian handicap betting market
| YEAR | HOST | MATCHES | AH Wins | AH Losses | AH Win P/L | AH Loss P/L | AH Win ROI% | AH Loss ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Belgium/Netherlands | 8 | 4.75 | 3.25 | 1.14 | -1.63 | 14.3% | -20.4% |
| 2004 | Portugal | 6 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.76 | -1.16 | 12.7% | -19.3% |
| 2008 | Austria/Switzerland | 6 | 2.25 | 3.75 | -1.81 | 1.34 | -30.2% | 22.3% |
| 2012 | Poland/Ukraine | 6 | 1.75 | 4.25 | -2.72 | 2.29 | -45.3% | 38.2% |
| 2016 | France | 7 | 3.75 | 3.25 | 0.09 | -0.82 | 1.3% | -11.6% |
| 2021 | Multiple hosts | 27 | 11.75 | 15.25 | -3.56 | 3.37 | -13.2% | 12.5% |
| TOTAL | 60 | 27.75 | 32.25 | -6.10 | 3.39 | -10.2% | 5.7% |
Conclusion: Back Germany at the 2024 Euros?
While we are dealing with a sample size of just 60 matches played, we should not expect host nations to simply outperform the market. Euro 2024 hosts Germany will be a heavily backed nation through group play, facing Scotland, Hungary and Switzerland, matches in which they will start at short odds.
While it might be tempting to back Germany in each of their group matches, it is worth noting that nations opposing host nations have returned a profit in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets since the tournament of 2000.
Summary of Conclusions:
Across the history of the Euros….
- Host advantage has been worth +0.45 goals
- Hosts goals scored per match increases by 0.23 goals
- Hosts goals conceded per match decreases by 0.22 goals
- Host advantage through Euro qualification has been +0.41 goals
- Hosts have not been profitability in either the 1X2 or Asian handicap markets
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