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Boxing BETSiE Predicts Eredivise: Updated February 26th 2024
PSV step ever closer to the Eredivisie title on the back of their 7-1 thumping away at Zwolle on Saturday. PSV are now at 98.4% to top the league with Feyenoord at the long odds of 1.6%. The race for automatic Champions League qualification looks settled with Feyenoord at 99.9% to join PSV next season. Twente have a firm grasp on a spot in the Champions League qualification round at 80.6% to finish in the top 3 while AZ Alkmaar is at 87.9% to earn at least a place in the Europa League with a top 4 finish. Vitesse and Volendam look set to suffer relegation at the end of the season while Waalwijk is favoured over Heracles and Excelsior to feature in the relegation playoff.
In this article:
- BETSiE Best Bets
- Projected Eredivisie Table
- Eredivisie Season Probabilities
- Match Expected Goals
- Match 1X2 Probabilities
- Asian Handicaps
- Goals Totals
- Both Teams To Score
- What is BETSiE?
BETSIE’S BEST BETS
| SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| No Eredivisie Best Bets this week |
BETSiE’S BEST BETS – ALL LEAGUES
- England Premier League BETSiE Projections
- England Championship BETSiE Projections
- England League One BETSiE Projections
- England League Two BETSiE Projections
- German Bundesliga BETSiE Projections
- Spain La Liga BETSiE Projecitons
- Italy Serie A BETSiE Projections
| LEAGUE | DATE | SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | March 2 | Hull +0 (AH) at Preston | 1.95 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Swansea +0 (AH) vs Blackburn | 1.81 | William Hill |
| Championship | March 2 | Bristol City vs Cardiff Under 2.25 goals | 1.85 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Huddersfield vs Leeds Under 2.75 goals | 1.86 | Pinnacle |
| Championship | March 2 | Preston vs Hull Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Brentford +0.25 (AH) vs Chelsea | 2.01 | bet365 |
| Premier League | March 2 | Everton -0.5 (AH) vs West Ham | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Nottingham Forest +1 (AH) vs Liverpool | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Newcastle vs Wolverhampton Over 3 goals | 2.01 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Cambridge +1 (AH) at Bolton | 1.83 | William Hill |
| League One | March 2 | Port Vale +1 (AH) at Derby | 2.06 | Pinnacle |
| League One | March 2 | Fleetwood +0 (AH) vs Wigan | 1.83 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Shrewsbury +0.5 (AH) vs Blackpool | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| League Two | March 2 | Accrington +1 (AH) at Wrexham | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| Serie A | March 3 | Juventus +0.25 (AH) at Napoli | 1.85 | Pinnacle |
Championship odds as at 10am 26th February 2024. Odds may now differ
Premier League odds correct as at 10am 207h February 2024. Odds may now differ
League One, League Two odds correct as at 10am 28th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Serie A odds correct as at 10am 29th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Projected Eredivisie Table
Updated: 26th February 2024
| Pos. | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 29.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 107.0 | 18.8 | 88.2 | 92.1 | |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 34 | 25.6 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 89.1 | 24.7 | 64.4 | 82.2 | |
| 3 | Twente | 34 | 19.9 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 65.0 | 34.4 | 30.6 | 67.0 | |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 17.6 | 8.6 | 7.8 | 61.3 | 33.1 | 28.1 | 61.4 | |
| 5 | Ajax | 34 | 15.6 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 73.5 | 59.8 | 13.7 | 55.1 | |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 12.7 | 9.4 | 11.8 | 52.3 | 50.5 | 1.8 | 47.7 | |
| 7 | Nijmegen | 34 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 57.7 | 55.6 | 2.0 | 46.1 | |
| 8 | Utrecht | 34 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 11.8 | 43.5 | 47.9 | -4.4 | 45.5 | |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 14.5 | 44.9 | 50.6 | -5.7 | 43.7 | |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 15.5 | 53.7 | 61.1 | -7.5 | 42.6 | |
| 11 | Almere City | 34 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 14.3 | 35.8 | 53.8 | -18.0 | 41.6 | |
| 12 | For Sittard | 34 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 14.7 | 36.0 | 54.5 | -18.5 | 40.7 | |
| 13 | Zwolle | 34 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 15.0 | 44.6 | 59.6 | -15.0 | 40.1 | |
| 14 | Excelsior | 34 | 7.2 | 11.2 | 15.6 | 49.9 | 68.1 | -18.1 | 32.7 | |
| 15 | Heracles | 34 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 18.9 | 42.2 | 75.2 | -33.0 | 32.7 | |
| 16 | Waalwijk | 34 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 19.9 | 32.6 | 56.9 | -24.3 | 30.9 | |
| 17 | Vitesse | 34 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 21.5 | 27.4 | 67.9 | -40.5 | 24.6 | |
| 18 | Volendam | 34 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 22.7 | 34.7 | 78.7 | -44.0 | 21.6 |
Eredivisie Season Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Top 3 Finish | Top 4 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation | Relegation Playoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 98.4% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Feyenoord | 1.6% | 99.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Twente | 0.00% | 0.09% | 80.58% | 98.45% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 0.0% | 0.0% | 18.5% | 87.9% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ajax | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 12.8% | 99.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Utrecht | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 69.7% | 30.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 86.8% | 13.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nijmegen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 77.0% | 23.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 53.1% | 46.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Heerenveen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 42.3% | 57.7% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Almere City | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29.2% | 70.8% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| For Sittard | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.6% | 78.4% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| Zwolle | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 19.4% | 80.6% | 0.1% | 0.9% |
| Excelsior | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 99.5% | 4.4% | 20.6% |
| Heracles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 99.5% | 6.0% | 26.6% |
| Waalwijk | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 99.8% | 12.4% | 33.9% |
| Volendam | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 94.4% | 4.3% |
| Vitesse | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 82.7% | 12.3% |
Upcoming matches: March 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Match Expected Goals
| Home | Away | Home | Away | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | Utrecht | 2.39 | 1.27 | 1.12 | 3.67 |
| For Sittard | Excelsior | 1.55 | 0.99 | 0.56 | 2.54 |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Waalwijk | 1.73 | 1.06 | 0.67 | 2.78 |
| Heerenveen | Zwolle | 1.82 | 1.17 | 0.65 | 2.99 |
| Heracles | Almere City | 1.36 | 1.37 | -0.01 | 2.72 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Feyenoord | 1.45 | 1.14 | 0.31 | 2.59 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | 1.08 | 1.4 | -0.31 | 2.48 |
| Vitesse | Twente | 0.76 | 1.92 | -1.16 | 2.67 |
| Volendam | Nijmegen | 1.4 | 1.83 | -0.42 | 3.23 |
Match 1X2 Probabilities
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | Utrecht | 62.20% | 18.70% | 19.10% |
| For Sittard | Excelsior | 50.20% | 25.50% | 24.30% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Waalwijk | 53.00% | 23.80% | 23.20% |
| Heerenveen | Zwolle | 52.60% | 23.00% | 24.40% |
| Heracles | Almere City | 36.90% | 25.70% | 37.40% |
| PSV Eindhoven | Feyenoord | 44.10% | 26.10% | 29.80% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | 29.20% | 26.70% | 44.10% |
| Vitesse | Twente | 14.00% | 21.20% | 64.80% |
| Volendam | Nijmegen | 29.70% | 22.80% | 47.50% |
Asian Handicaps
| Home | Away | Home AH | Away AH | Home AH % | Away AH % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | Utrecht | -0.75 | 0.75 | 56.95% | 43.05% |
| For Sittard | Excelsior | -0.5 | 0.5 | 50.22% | 49.78% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Waalwijk | -0.75 | 0.75 | 45.64% | 54.36% |
| Heerenveen | Zwolle | -0.75 | 0.75 | 45.50% | 54.50% |
| Heracles | Almere City | 0 | 0 | 49.70% | 50.30% |
| PSV Eindhoven | Feyenoord | -0.5 | 0.5 | 44.12% | 55.88% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | 0.5 | -0.5 | 55.88% | 44.12% |
| Vitesse | Twente | 1 | -1 | 47.17% | 52.83% |
| Volendam | Nijmegen | 0.75 | -0.75 | 59.63% | 40.37% |
Goal Totals
| Home | Away | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | Utrecht | 3.25 | 56.50% | 43.50% |
| For Sittard | Excelsior | 2.75 | 39.30% | 60.70% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Waalwijk | 2.75 | 45.90% | 54.10% |
| Heerenveen | Zwolle | 2.75 | 51.20% | 48.80% |
| Heracles | Almere City | 2.5 | 51.20% | 48.80% |
| PSV Eindhoven | Feyenoord | 3 | 33.40% | 66.60% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | 2.5 | 45.20% | 54.80% |
| Vitesse | Twente | 2.5 | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| Volendam | Nijmegen | 3 | 52.00% | 48.00% |
Both Teams To Score
| Home | Away | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | Utrecht | 65.40% | 34.60% |
| For Sittard | Excelsior | 49.50% | 50.50% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | Waalwijk | 53.70% | 46.30% |
| Heerenveen | Zwolle | 57.70% | 42.30% |
| Heracles | Almere City | 55.30% | 44.70% |
| PSV Eindhoven | Feyenoord | 52.10% | 47.90% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | AZ Alkmaar | 49.80% | 50.20% |
| Vitesse | Twente | 45.20% | 54.80% |
| Volendam | Nijmegen | 63.30% | 36.70% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire Eredivisie season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the Eredivisie fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the Eredivisie season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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