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Boxing BETSiE Predicts England League Two 2023-2024: Updated February 28th 2024
Mansfield firm as favourites for the League Two title following their 5-1 home win over Salford on Saturday. Mansfield are now 51.9% to top the League Two table while Stockport are at 35.1% off the back of their 0-0 draw with Swindon on Saturday. Wrexham are favoured at 45.1% to earn a top 3 finish and an automatic promotion with Crewe at 32.6% and MK Dons at 31.3%. Barrow are at 66.5% to earn a top 7 finish favoured over Walsall at 39.2%, Gillingham 26.1% and Bradford 25.6%. Forest Green and Sutton are destined for the National League next season with Colchester and Grimsby not quite out of the relegation scrap just yet.
In this article:
- BETSiE Best Bets
- Projected League Two Table
- League Two Season Probabilities
- Match Expected Goals
- Match 1X2 Probabilities
- Asian Handicaps
- Goals Totals
- Both Teams To Score
- What is BETSiE?
BETSIE’S BEST BETS
| SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington +1 (AH) at Wrexham | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
Odds correct as at 10am 28th February 2024 Odds may now differ.
BETSiE’S BEST BETS – ALL LEAGUES
- England Premier League BETSiE Projections
- England Championship BETSiE Projections
- England League One BETSiE Projections
- German Bundesliga BETSiE Projections
- Netherlands Eredivisie BETSiE Projections
- Spain La Liga BETSiE Projecitons
- Italy Serie A BETSiE Projections
- France Ligue Un BETSiE Projections
| LEAGUE | DATE | SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | March 2 | Hull +0 (AH) at Preston | 1.95 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Swansea +0 (AH) vs Blackburn | 1.81 | William Hill |
| Championship | March 2 | Bristol City vs Cardiff Under 2.25 goals | 1.85 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Huddersfield vs Leeds Under 2.75 goals | 1.86 | Pinnacle |
| Championship | March 2 | Preston vs Hull Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Brentford +0.25 (AH) vs Chelsea | 2.01 | bet365 |
| Premier League | March 2 | Everton -0.5 (AH) vs West Ham | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Nottingham Forest +1 (AH) vs Liverpool | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Newcastle vs Wolverhampton Over 3 goals | 2.01 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Cambridge +1 (AH) at Bolton | 1.83 | William Hill |
| League One | March 2 | Port Vale +1 (AH) at Derby | 2.06 | Pinnacle |
| League One | March 2 | Fleetwood +0 (AH) vs Wigan | 1.83 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Shrewsbury +0.5 (AH) vs Blackpool | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| League Two | March 2 | Accrington +1 (AH) at Wrexham | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| Serie A | March 3 | Juventus +0.25 (AH) at Napoli | 1.85 | Pinnacle |
Championship odds as at 10am 26th February 2024. Odds may now differ
Premier League odds correct as at 10am 207h February 2024. Odds may now differ
League One, League Two odds correct as at 10am 28th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Serie A odds correct as at 10am 29th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Projected League Two Table
Updated: 28th February 2024
| Pos. | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mansfield Town | 46 | 23.1 | 15 | 7.8 | 89 | 45.5 | 43.5 | 84.5 |
| 2 | Stockport County | 46 | 23.8 | 12 | 10.2 | 84.6 | 50 | 34.7 | 83.4 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 46 | 22 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 78.8 | 61.6 | 17.2 | 78 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 46 | 21.2 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 77.1 | 62.2 | 14.8 | 76.7 |
| 5 | Milton Keynes Dons | 46 | 22.2 | 10 | 13.8 | 72.9 | 58.9 | 14 | 76.5 |
| 6 | Barrow | 46 | 19.2 | 14.4 | 12.4 | 64.2 | 54.6 | 9.6 | 71.9 |
| 7 | Walsall | 46 | 18.9 | 12 | 15.1 | 69.1 | 62.4 | 6.7 | 68.6 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 46 | 19.5 | 9.1 | 17.4 | 47.6 | 54.5 | -6.8 | 67.6 |
| 9 | Bradford City | 46 | 17.8 | 13.3 | 14.9 | 60.2 | 54 | 6.2 | 66.8 |
| 10 | Crawley Town | 46 | 19.2 | 7.2 | 19.6 | 65.7 | 69.1 | -3.4 | 64.7 |
| 11 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 16.9 | 14 | 15.1 | 64.4 | 54.7 | 9.7 | 64.6 |
| 12 | Morecambe | 46 | 17.3 | 12.4 | 16.3 | 63.8 | 70 | -6.2 | 64.3 |
| 13 | Notts County | 46 | 18.6 | 7.9 | 19.5 | 86.7 | 83.3 | 3.3 | 63.7 |
| 14 | Newport County | 46 | 17.8 | 10 | 18.2 | 65.4 | 70.6 | -5.1 | 63.3 |
| 15 | Accrington Stanley | 46 | 17.4 | 10 | 18.6 | 63.7 | 61.3 | 2.4 | 62.1 |
| 16 | Harrogate Town | 46 | 17.3 | 9 | 19.7 | 54.7 | 70.9 | -16.3 | 61 |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 46 | 14.9 | 12.7 | 18.4 | 74.7 | 77.8 | -3 | 57.5 |
| 18 | Salford City | 46 | 14.5 | 12.6 | 18.9 | 69.1 | 79.5 | -10.5 | 56.2 |
| 19 | Doncaster Rovers | 46 | 15.4 | 9.4 | 21.2 | 58.9 | 74.7 | -15.8 | 55.5 |
| 20 | Tranmere Rovers | 46 | 15.9 | 6.7 | 23.4 | 68.4 | 68.5 | -0.1 | 54.5 |
| 21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11.1 | 15.5 | 19.4 | 63 | 79.6 | -16.6 | 48.8 |
| 22 | Colchester United | 46 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 22.8 | 61.7 | 80.1 | -18.4 | 47.7 |
| 23 | Sutton United | 46 | 8.9 | 13.8 | 23.3 | 54.7 | 82.6 | -28 | 40.5 |
| 24 | Forest Green Rovers | 46 | 9.4 | 12 | 24.7 | 47.8 | 79.9 | -32.1 | 40.1 |
League Two Season Probabilities
Updated: 28th February 2024
| Club | Win League | Top 3 Finish | Playoffs | Top 7 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield Town | 51.90% | 91.50% | 8.40% | 99.90% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Stockport County | 35.10% | 88.50% | 11.40% | 99.90% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Wrexham | 5.90% | 45.10% | 51.40% | 96.40% | 99.90% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| Crewe Alexandra | 3.00% | 32.60% | 61.10% | 93.70% | 99.90% | 0.10% | 0.00% |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 3.70% | 31.30% | 61.70% | 93.00% | 99.80% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| Barrow | 0.40% | 7.00% | 59.50% | 66.50% | 96.20% | 3.80% | 0.00% |
| Walsall | 0.00% | 1.70% | 37.50% | 39.20% | 87.60% | 12.40% | 0.00% |
| Gillingham | 0.00% | 0.80% | 25.30% | 26.10% | 79.10% | 20.90% | 0.00% |
| Bradford City | 0.00% | 0.70% | 25.00% | 25.60% | 76.80% | 23.20% | 0.00% |
| Crawley Town | 0.00% | 0.30% | 11.30% | 11.60% | 58.20% | 41.80% | 0.00% |
| AFC Wimbledon | 0.00% | 0.20% | 13.80% | 14.10% | 63.00% | 37.00% | 0.00% |
| Morecambe | 0.00% | 0.20% | 9.90% | 10.10% | 54.30% | 45.70% | 0.00% |
| Notts County | 0.00% | 0.10% | 9.50% | 9.60% | 53.20% | 46.80% | 0.00% |
| Newport County | 0.00% | 0.10% | 6.60% | 6.60% | 46.20% | 53.80% | 0.00% |
| Accrington Stanley | 0.00% | 0.10% | 4.80% | 4.80% | 39.40% | 60.60% | 0.00% |
| Harrogate Town | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.20% | 2.20% | 24.20% | 75.80% | 0.00% |
| Swindon Town | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 9.50% | 90.50% | 0.10% |
| Salford City | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 5.20% | 94.80% | 0.30% |
| Doncaster Rovers | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 4.50% | 95.50% | 0.70% |
| Tranmere Rovers | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.10% | 2.70% | 97.30% | 0.60% |
| Grimsby Town | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 99.80% | 12.90% |
| Colchester United | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 15.80% |
| Sutton United | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 83.30% |
| Forest Green Rovers | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 86.40% |
Upcoming matches: March 2nd
Match Expected Goals
| HOME | AWAY | HOME | AWAY | MARGIN | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | Milton Keynes Dons | 1.35 | 1.33 | 0.02 | 2.68 |
| Bradford City | Notts County | 1.65 | 1.14 | 0.51 | 2.78 |
| Colchester United | Stockport County | 1.16 | 1.53 | -0.37 | 2.69 |
| Crawley Town | Barrow | 1.3 | 1.31 | -0.01 | 2.61 |
| Crewe Alexandra | Morecambe | 1.4 | 1.09 | 0.32 | 2.49 |
| Grimsby Town | Forest Green Rovers | 1.65 | 1.15 | 0.51 | 2.8 |
| Newport County | Mansfield Town | 1.23 | 1.56 | -0.33 | 2.8 |
| Salford City | Gillingham | 1.64 | 1.25 | 0.39 | 2.89 |
| Swindon Town | Harrogate Town | 1.62 | 1.1 | 0.52 | 2.72 |
| Tranmere Rovers | Sutton United | 1.57 | 1.29 | 0.29 | 2.86 |
| Walsall | Doncaster Rovers | 1.57 | 1.03 | 0.54 | 2.6 |
| Wrexham | Accrington Stanley | 1.69 | 1.35 | 0.33 | 3.04 |
Match 1X2 Probabilities
| HOME | AWAY | HOME % | DRAW % | AWAY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | Milton Keynes Dons | 37.50% | 25.90% | 36.50% |
| Bradford City | Notts County | 49.30% | 24.50% | 26.30% |
| Colchester United | Stockport County | 28.90% | 25.40% | 45.70% |
| Crawley Town | Barrow | 36.60% | 26.30% | 37.10% |
| Crewe Alexandra | Morecambe | 44.30% | 26.60% | 29.10% |
| Grimsby Town | Forest Green Rovers | 49.10% | 24.40% | 26.50% |
| Newport County | Mansfield Town | 30.10% | 24.90% | 45.00% |
| Salford City | Gillingham | 46.50% | 24.30% | 29.10% |
| Swindon Town | Harrogate Town | 49.40% | 24.70% | 25.90% |
| Tranmere Rovers | Sutton United | 44.10% | 24.70% | 31.20% |
| Walsall | Doncaster Rovers | 49.90% | 25.20% | 24.80% |
| Wrexham | Accrington Stanley | 45.40% | 23.80% | 30.90% |
Asian Handicaps
| HOME | AWAY | HOME AH | AWAY AH | HOME AH % | AWAY AH % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | Milton Keynes Dons | 0 | 0 | 50.70% | 49.30% |
| Bradford City | Notts County | -0.5 | 0.5 | 49.30% | 50.70% |
| Colchester United | Stockport County | .05 | -0.5 | 54.30% | 45.70% |
| Crawley Town | Barrow | 0 | 0 | 49.60% | 50.40% |
| Crewe Alexandra | Morecambe | -0.5 | 0.5 | 44.30% | 55.70% |
| Grimsby Town | Forest Green Rovers | -0.5 | 0.5 | 49.10% | 50.90% |
| Newport County | Mansfield Town | 0.5 | -0.5 | 55.00% | 45.00% |
| Salford City | Gillingham | 0 | 0 | 61.50% | 38.50% |
| Swindon Town | Harrogate Town | -0.5 | 0.5 | 49.40% | 50.60% |
| Tranmere Rovers | Sutton United | -0.5 | 0.5 | 44.10% | 55.90% |
| Walsall | Doncaster Rovers | -0.5 | 0.5 | 49.90% | 50.10% |
| Wrexham | Accrington Stanley | -1 | 1 | 30.40% | 69.60% |
Goal Totals
| HOME | AWAY | O/U LINE | OVER % | UNDER % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | Milton Keynes Dons | 2.5 | 50.20% | 49.80% |
| Bradford City | Notts County | 2.75 | 45.80% | 54.20% |
| Colchester United | Stockport County | 2.75 | 43.50% | 56.50% |
| Crawley Town | Barrow | 2.5 | 48.40% | 51.60% |
| Crewe Alexandra | Morecambe | 2.5 | 45.40% | 54.60% |
| Grimsby Town | Forest Green Rovers | 2.75 | 46.30% | 53.70% |
| Newport County | Mansfield Town | 2.75 | 46.30% | 53.70% |
| Salford City | Gillingham | 2.5 | 55.10% | 44.90% |
| Swindon Town | Harrogate Town | 2.75 | 44.10% | 55.90% |
| Tranmere Rovers | Sutton United | 2.5 | 54.40% | 45.60% |
| Walsall | Doncaster Rovers | 2.5 | 48.20% | 51.80% |
| Wrexham | Accrington Stanley | 3 | 46.60% | 53.40% |
Both Teams To Score
| HOME | AWAY | YES | NO |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon | Milton Keynes Dons | 54.50% | 45.50% |
| Bradford City | Notts County | 54.80% | 45.20% |
| Colchester United | Stockport County | 53.90% | 46.10% |
| Crawley Town | Barrow | 53.10% | 46.90% |
| Crewe Alexandra | Morecambe | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| Grimsby Town | Forest Green Rovers | 55.20% | 44.80% |
| Newport County | Mansfield Town | 56.10% | 43.90% |
| Salford City | Gillingham | 57.40% | 42.60% |
| Swindon Town | Harrogate Town | 53.40% | 46.60% |
| Tranmere Rovers | Sutton United | 57.30% | 42.70% |
| Walsall | Doncaster Rovers | 50.90% | 49.10% |
| Wrexham | Accrington Stanley | 60.40% | 39.60% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire League Two season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the League Two fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the League Two season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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