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Boxing BETSiE Predicts England League One 2023-2024: Updated February 28th 2024
Portsmouth are at 61% to win the League One title in 2024 despite their scoreless draw at Charlton on Saturday. Portsmouth are at 82% to finish in the top 2 and earn automatic promotion to the Championship, while Bolton and Derby remain in the title hunt, with Bolton at 13% and Derby at 12.7%. The clubs look set to battle it out for the remaining automatic promotion place with Bolton at 36.7% and Derby at 36.4% to finish in the top 2. Barnsley and Peterborough look set for a top 6 finish while Stevenage is favoured over Oxford and Leyton to feature in the promotion playoffs.
In this article:
- BETSiE Best Bets
- Projected League One Table
- League One Season Probabilities
- Match Expected Goals
- Match 1X2 Probabilities
- Asian Handicaps
- Goals Totals
- Both Teams To Score
- What is BETSiE?
BETSIE’S BEST BETS
| SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge +1 (AH) at Bolton | 1.83 | William Hill |
| Port Vale +1 (AH) at Derby | 2.06 | Pinnacle |
| Fleetwood +0 (AH) vs Wigan | 1.83 | bet365 |
| Shrewsbury +0.5 (AH) vs Blackpool | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
Odds correct as at 1pm 28th February 2023. Odds may now differ.
BETSiE’S BEST BETS – ALL LEAGUES
- England Premier League BETSiE Projections
- England Championship BETSiE Projections
- England League Two BETSiE Projections
- German Bundesliga BETSiE Projections
- Netherlands Eredivisie BETSiE Projections
- Spain La Liga BETSiE Projecitons
- Italy Serie A BETSiE Projections
- France Ligue Un BETSiE Projections
| LEAGUE | DATE | SELECTION | ODDS | BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | March 2 | Hull +0 (AH) at Preston | 1.95 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Swansea +0 (AH) vs Blackburn | 1.81 | William Hill |
| Championship | March 2 | Bristol City vs Cardiff Under 2.25 goals | 1.85 | bet365 |
| Championship | March 2 | Huddersfield vs Leeds Under 2.75 goals | 1.86 | Pinnacle |
| Championship | March 2 | Preston vs Hull Under 2.5 goals | 1.81 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Brentford +0.25 (AH) vs Chelsea | 2.01 | bet365 |
| Premier League | March 2 | Everton -0.5 (AH) vs West Ham | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Nottingham Forest +1 (AH) vs Liverpool | 2.04 | Pinnacle |
| Premier League | March 2 | Newcastle vs Wolverhampton Over 3 goals | 2.01 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Cambridge +1 (AH) at Bolton | 1.83 | William Hill |
| League One | March 2 | Port Vale +1 (AH) at Derby | 2.06 | Pinnacle |
| League One | March 2 | Fleetwood +0 (AH) vs Wigan | 1.83 | bet365 |
| League One | March 2 | Shrewsbury +0.5 (AH) vs Blackpool | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| League Two | March 2 | Accrington +1 (AH) at Wrexham | 1.95 | Pinnacle |
| Serie A | March 3 | Juventus +0.25 (AH) at Napoli | 1.85 | Pinnacle |
Championship odds as at 10am 26th February 2024. Odds may now differ
Premier League odds correct as at 10am 207h February 2024. Odds may now differ
League One, League Two odds correct as at 10am 28th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Serie A odds correct as at 10am 29th February 2024. Odds may now differ.
Projected League One Table
Updated: 28th February 2024
| Pos. | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portsmouth | 46 | 25.6 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 73.6 | 43.4 | 30.2 | 89.6 |
| 2 | Bolton Wanderers | 46 | 25 | 9.2 | 11.8 | 76.2 | 51.7 | 24.5 | 84.2 |
| 3 | Derby County | 46 | 24.9 | 9 | 12.1 | 75 | 44.2 | 30.8 | 83.7 |
| 4 | Barnsley | 46 | 23.2 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 79 | 54.7 | 24.4 | 81.8 |
| 5 | Peterborough United | 46 | 23.5 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 83.2 | 56.3 | 27 | 81.5 |
| 6 | Stevenage | 46 | 22.1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 64.5 | 47.5 | 17 | 77.5 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 46 | 20.2 | 11.8 | 14 | 72 | 58.7 | 13.3 | 72.3 |
| 8 | Leyton Orient | 46 | 19.6 | 11.9 | 14.6 | 58.3 | 55 | 3.3 | 70.6 |
| 9 | Blackpool | 46 | 19.5 | 10.8 | 15.6 | 69.4 | 54.5 | 15 | 69.4 |
| 10 | Lincoln City | 46 | 16.9 | 15 | 14.1 | 52.8 | 45.5 | 7.4 | 65.6 |
| 11 | Northampton Town | 46 | 17.6 | 9 | 19.3 | 61 | 67.8 | -6.8 | 61.9 |
| 12 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 17.3 | 10.1 | 18.6 | 62.5 | 65.3 | -2.8 | 61.9 |
| 13 | Wycombe Wanderers | 46 | 14.7 | 14.2 | 17.1 | 58.7 | 58.5 | 0.2 | 58.3 |
| 14 | Wigan Athletic | 46 | 18.2 | 10 | 17.8 | 60.5 | 57.9 | 2.6 | 56.6 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 46 | 14.6 | 9.8 | 21.6 | 39.4 | 63.5 | -24.1 | 53.7 |
| 16 | Reading | 46 | 15 | 11.9 | 19.1 | 59.7 | 65.8 | -6.1 | 53 |
| 17 | Cambridge United | 46 | 13.9 | 11.2 | 20.9 | 44.7 | 58 | -13.2 | 52.9 |
| 18 | Charlton Athletic | 46 | 12 | 15.8 | 18.2 | 63.6 | 68 | -4.4 | 51.9 |
| 19 | Burton Albion | 46 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 21.4 | 42.6 | 61.9 | -19.2 | 51.6 |
| 20 | Shrewsbury Town | 46 | 14.5 | 7.8 | 23.6 | 39.3 | 64.7 | -25.4 | 51.5 |
| 21 | Cheltenham Town | 46 | 14 | 9.3 | 22.7 | 46 | 62.2 | -16.2 | 51.4 |
| 22 | Port Vale | 46 | 12.5 | 11.2 | 22.3 | 51.1 | 72.8 | -21.7 | 48.8 |
| 23 | Fleetwood Town | 46 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 23.3 | 51.7 | 74.3 | -22.6 | 42.8 |
| 24 | Carlisle United | 46 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 26.4 | 41.6 | 74.7 | -33 | 36.7 |
League One Season Probabilities
| Club | Win League | Top 2 Finish | Playoffs | Top 6 Finish | Top Half Finish | Bottom Half Finish | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 61.00% | 82.00% | 17.90% | 99.90% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bolton Wanderers | 13.00% | 36.70% | 61.00% | 97.70% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Derby County | 12.70% | 36.40% | 61.80% | 98.20% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Barnsley | 6.80% | 21.00% | 72.80% | 93.80% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Peterborough United | 5.90% | 19.80% | 72.80% | 92.60% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Stevenage | 0.60% | 3.80% | 68.40% | 72.20% | 100.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Oxford United | 0.00% | 0.20% | 23.00% | 23.20% | 99.80% | 0.20% | 0.00% |
| Leyton Orient | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.20% | 11.20% | 98.80% | 1.20% | 0.00% |
| Blackpool | 0.00% | 0.00% | 8.90% | 9.00% | 98.20% | 1.80% | 0.00% |
| Lincoln City | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.70% | 1.70% | 89.60% | 10.40% | 0.00% |
| Northampton Town | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 60.90% | 39.10% | 0.10% |
| Bristol Rovers | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 61.90% | 38.10% | 0.10% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 32.40% | 67.60% | 1.70% |
| Wigan Athletic | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 19.10% | 80.90% | 2.80% |
| Exeter City | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.50% | 95.50% | 16.00% |
| Reading | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.20% | 79.80% | 2.50% |
| Cambridge United | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.80% | 95.20% | 17.90% |
| Charlton Athletic | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 3.20% | 96.80% | 23.10% |
| Burton Albion | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.00% | 98.00% | 29.10% |
| Shrewsbury Town | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.60% | 98.40% | 31.20% |
| Cheltenham Town | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.40% | 97.60% | 30.00% |
| Port Vale | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.70% | 99.30% | 53.80% |
| Fleetwood Town | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 92.10% |
| Carlisle United | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 100.00% | 99.50% |
Upcoming matches March 2nd
Match Expected Goals
| Home | Away | Home | Away | Margin | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers | Cambridge United | 1.53 | 0.88 | 0.64 | 2.41 |
| Carlisle United | Reading | 1.26 | 1.25 | 0.01 | 2.51 |
| Cheltenham Town | Burton Albion | 1.64 | 1.02 | 0.62 | 2.65 |
| Derby County | Port Vale | 1.68 | 0.94 | 0.74 | 2.62 |
| Fleetwood Town | Wigan Athletic | 1.6 | 1.04 | 0.56 | 2.65 |
| Leyton Orient | Bristol Rovers | 1.59 | 1.08 | 0.51 | 2.68 |
| Lincoln City | Stevenage | 1.1 | 1.15 | -0.05 | 2.24 |
| Northampton Town | Charlton Athletic | 1.37 | 1.28 | 0.09 | 2.65 |
| Peterborough United | Exeter City | 1.92 | 1.01 | 0.9 | 2.93 |
| Portsmouth | Oxford United | 1.59 | 1.15 | 0.44 | 2.74 |
| Shrewsbury Town | Blackpool | 1.28 | 1.35 | -0.07 | 2.62 |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Barnsley | 1.51 | 1.26 | 0.25 | 2.77 |
Match 1X2 Probabilities
| Home | Away | Home % | Draw % | Away % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers | Cambridge United | 52.35% | 25.86% | 21.80% |
| Carlisle United | Reading | 36.73% | 26.94% | 36.32% |
| Cheltenham Town | Burton Albion | 51.78% | 24.64% | 23.57% |
| Derby County | Port Vale | 54.70% | 24.23% | 21.08% |
| Fleetwood Town | Wigan Athletic | 50.38% | 24.93% | 24.69% |
| Leyton Orient | Bristol Rovers | 49.20% | 24.98% | 25.83% |
| Lincoln City | Stevenage | 34.36% | 28.80% | 36.84% |
| Northampton Town | Charlton Athletic | 39.08% | 26.09% | 34.83% |
| Peterborough United | Exeter City | 58.47% | 21.96% | 19.57% |
| Portsmouth | Oxford United | 47.66% | 24.86% | 27.48% |
| Shrewsbury Town | Blackpool | 35.19% | 26.24% | 38.58% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Barnsley | 42.97% | 25.22% | 31.81% |
Asian Handicaps
| Home | Away | Home AH | Away AH | Home AH % | Away AH % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers | Cambridge United | -1 | 1 | 36.22% | 63.78% |
| Carlisle United | Reading | 0.25 | -0.25 | 56.98% | 43.02% |
| Cheltenham Town | Burton Albion | -0.75 | 0.75 | 44.10% | 55.90% |
| Derby County | Port Vale | -1 | 1 | 39.76% | 60.24% |
| Fleetwood Town | Wigan Athletic | 0 | 0 | 67.11% | 32.89% |
| Leyton Orient | Bristol Rovers | -0.5 | 0.5 | 49.20% | 50.80% |
| Lincoln City | Stevenage | 0 | 0 | 48.26% | 51.74% |
| Northampton Town | Charlton Athletic | 0 | 0 | 52.88% | 47.12% |
| Peterborough United | Exeter City | -1.25 | 1.25 | 39.96% | 60.04% |
| Portsmouth | Oxford United | -0.75 | 0.75 | 39.84% | 60.16% |
| Shrewsbury Town | Blackpool | 0.5 | -0.5 | 61.42% | 38.58% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Barnsley | 0 | 0 | 57.46% | 42.54% |
Goal Totals
| Home | Away | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers | Cambridge United | 2.5 | 43.25% | 56.75% |
| Carlisle United | Reading | 2.5 | 45.86% | 54.14% |
| Cheltenham Town | Burton Albion | 2.25 | 57.65% | 42.35% |
| Derby County | Port Vale | 2.5 | 48.61% | 51.39% |
| Fleetwood Town | Wigan Athletic | 2.5 | 49.34% | 50.66% |
| Leyton Orient | Bristol Rovers | 2.5 | 50.04% | 49.96% |
| Lincoln City | Stevenage | 2 | 52.96% | 47.04% |
| Northampton Town | Charlton Athletic | 2.5 | 49.30% | 50.70% |
| Peterborough United | Exeter City | 2.75 | 49.87% | 50.13% |
| Portsmouth | Oxford United | 2.5 | 51.70% | 48.30% |
| Shrewsbury Town | Blackpool | 2.25 | 56.84% | 43.16% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Barnsley | 2.5 | 52.35% | 47.65% |
Both Teams To Score
| Home | Away | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton Wanderers | Cambridge United | 45.89% | 54.11% |
| Carlisle United | Reading | 51.10% | 48.90% |
| Cheltenham Town | Burton Albion | 51.43% | 48.57% |
| Derby County | Port Vale | 49.58% | 50.42% |
| Fleetwood Town | Wigan Athletic | 51.75% | 48.25% |
| Leyton Orient | Bristol Rovers | 52.68% | 47.32% |
| Lincoln City | Stevenage | 45.38% | 54.62% |
| Northampton Town | Charlton Athletic | 53.76% | 46.24% |
| Peterborough United | Exeter City | 54.40% | 45.60% |
| Portsmouth | Oxford United | 54.45% | 45.55% |
| Shrewsbury Town | Blackpool | 53.34% | 46.66% |
| Wycombe Wanderers | Barnsley | 55.83% | 44.17% |
What is BETSiE?
BETSiE projects the entire League One season, taking into account the result of every match played so far and every match yet to be played. Upcoming match results are predicted using expected goals (xG) for and against for every club in the league.
BETSiE takes into account the following match data:
- Goals For / Against
- Shots For / Against
- Shots on Target For / Against
Not all goals, shots and shots on target are equal. Each goal, shot and shot on target has an adjusted value.
Based on the match data detailed above, expected scores are calculated for each match played. Each team is then assigned an average expected goals for and against.
Once expected goals for each club have been determined, BETSiE plugs them into the League One fixture and predicts scores for each upcoming game in the League One season and the probability of each club winning, drawing or losing each match.
Expected match points are then assigned to each team in each upcoming match. BETSiE then compiles the expected results with results of matches already played and simulates the remainder of the season 20,000 times to determine the probability of each team winning the league, finishing top 4 or being relegated.
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