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Mixed martial arts NFL Week 5 Parlay Picks: Game Lines Parlay at 13.21 Odds
The NFL regular season heads back to London in Week 5, as Week 4’s victorious side the Jacksonville Jaguars have remained in the English capital ready to welcome the travelling Buffalo Bills to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Attention then turns to the 6pm slate, headlined by the New York Giants’ visit to Florida to take on the reeling Miami Dolphins, before the Philadelphia Eagles head west to take on Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams.
The game of the week comes afterwards, as two of the league’s best sides face off in Santa Clara when the San Francisco 49ers welcome the Dallas Cowboys to the bay.
Monday Night Football is live from Sin City where the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Green Bay Packers with both sides desperate to put frustrating Week 4 losses behind them.
Our NFL expert Joshua Jones has a 13.21 parlay for Week 5 of football action, so if you want more from him, visit our Expert Insights section.
- Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars: Jacksonville Jaguars Under 21.5 Points
- Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants: Miami Dolphins Over 16.5 First Half Points
- Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans: Houston Texans Moneyline
- LA Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia Eagles Over 1.5 Field Goals
NFL Week 5 Parlay odds: 13.21
Odds via 888sport as at 00:00, 4th October 2023. Odds may now differ.
Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars (UK): Buffa-low Scoring In London
United Kingdom, NFL, Sunday, October 8th, 18:00 (UK)
The NFL’s International Series continues in London this week as the resident Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) welcome the AFC East topping Buffalo Bills (3-1) to the UK’s capital, as they look to make it two wins in a row in their home-away-from-home.
Jacksonville were the grateful recipients of several gifts from Atlanta Falcons QB Desmond Ridder on the way to a 23-7 win at Wembley last weekend, though they weren’t particularly impressive in the win and – frankly – didn’t have to do much to earn it.
A busted coverage TD in the first quarter followed by a 61-yard pick-six in the second was enough to put the game well beyond the Falcons, and all the Jaguars had to do to head back to their hotel victorious was not turn the ball over.
Their offence hasn’t impressed as many expected it to do with the addition of Calvin Ridley, and it’s undoing the good work their 7th-ranked defence (based on EPA per play) has been doing on the other side of the ball.
They’ll have to be much better to challenge the Buffalo Bills – who are currently ranked as the #1 side in the NFL, per DVOA – and are being touted as the best 3-1 side of all-time. Their 48-20 dismantling of the Miami Dolphins was the performance their season needed to show the world what they are about after their dismal Week 1 overtime loss at the New York Jets.
Josh Allen really threw that game away, chucking three interceptions at Jordan Whitehead and fumbling the ball twice but it was clearly the wake-up call he needed. Allen has been virtually flawless since that game – throwing for over 800 yards, 8 TDs and just one interception in three games since.
The Bills defence are really imposing themselves this year too, holding opposing offences to just 13.8 points per game, and ranking 2nd in the league, per DVOA. None of their four opponents have reached 21 points in regulation, while no other side in the league have allowed less points against.
As mentioned above, the Jaguars haven’t been the free-flowing offensive machine that they were touted to be. Doug Pederson’s side are averaging 20 points per game this season, and that drops to an average of just 16.8 points per game across their last five visits to London.
Since then: they’ve managed just nine against the Chiefs, 17 against the Texans and then 23 (including a pick-six) against the Falcons. The Jags can’t run the ball very well (they rank #19) so have become extremely reliant on Trevor Lawrence’s arm talent, which simply cannot work against the Bills’ #4 ranked passing defense.
Buffalo can generate pressure with their front four – delivering 12 of the 13 pressures Tua Tagovailoa has faced so far this year – which allows them to sit on receiver’s routes, keep everything in front of them and prevent big plays.
- Selection: Jacksonville Jaguars Under 21.5 Points
- Best Odds: 1.83
- Bookmaker: 888sport
- Stake: 5/10
Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants: Fins Fast Start Foils Giants
United States, NFL, Sunday, October 8th, 18:00 (UK)
The Miami Dolphins (3-1) came crashing back down to earth from their 70-point high last week with a drubbing at the hands of divisional rival Buffalo Bills, but welcome the New York Giants (1-3) to Hard Rock Stadium looking to get back on track – and there might be no better opponent for them to face.
The Giants were brutalised by the Seahawks on Monday Night Football with Daniel Jones spending more time on his backside than he did with the ball in his hands, giving the Seattle defence one of the best days of their careers. ‘Danny Dimes’ was sacked 10 TIMES, had a fumble inside his own redzone that led directly to a touchdown, and threw two picks (including a 97-yard pick-six) on the way to a 24-3 loss.
The Dolphins also suffered a heavy defeat, though the signs weren’t nearly as worrying. Miami lost to the aforementioned Buffalo Bills side that ranks as the top side in the NFL according to DVOA and has been lauded as the best 3-1 side of all-time; a moniker I don’t entirely disagree with.
There were some good signs for Mike McDaniel’s side though and they were still able to put up almost 400-yards of offense and could have kept the scoreline closer if it weren’t for two turnovers that led to 10 Bills points. Importantly, the G-men are not the Buffalo Bills – and the Dolphins are much closer to their divisional rivals than they are to New York.
In fact, Miami boasts the NFL’s best overall offense – remarkably ranking #1 for both passing offense and rushing offense whilst QB Tua Tagovailoa is PFF’s top-rated quarterback through four weeks of action. The Dolphins have been really good across the board but they have, unsurprisingly, been unstoppable against bad defences and there has been a clear split across their four games.
Against New England (#8 offence, per DVOA) and Buffalo (#2) the Dolphins racked up an average of 391 total yards and 22.5 points per game; then against Los Angeles Chargers (#22) and Denver (#32) they’ve averaged 631 total yards and 53 points per game. Whilst this is obviously unsustainable, expect them to put up some serious numbers against a Giants defence that ranks #27 overall.
Miami have, importantly, been the best first half offence in the NFL this season – averaging 21.5 points per game and hitting this line in three games, including 35 in their only home game – where the Giants have been the worst first half defence in the league (to have not already faced the Dolphins), having allowed 77 points (19.3 per game) including 17 or more on three occasions.
- Selection: Miami Dolphins Over 16.5 First Half Points
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: 888sport
- Stake: 7/10
Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans: London Hangover For The Dirty Birds
United States, NFL, Sunday, October 8th, 18:00 (UK)
The NFL’s surprise package Houston Texans (2-2) head to Georgia hoping to continue their impressive run and must face the Atlanta Falcons (2-2), who are looking to get their season back on track after falling to back-to-back losses without scoring a touchdown.
Rookie quarterback CJ Stroud has been a revelation for DeMeco Ryan’s side, balling out behind a banged-up offensive line and putting opposing defences to the slaughter in back-to-back weeks.
While his play against the Jacksonville Jaguars might have been considered a fluke at the time, backing it up with a mature performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers and standing tall in the pocket against their elite pass-rushing options has made it clear he is here to play.
He ranks 11th in the league for EPA per play on dropbacks, and set the record for most consecutive passing attempts (151) without an interception to start his NFL career last week. His opponent ranks 31st when dropping back to pass, and could be the key to a Texans win here.
Desmond Ridder was tragically bad in the Falcons’ demoralising 23-7 defeat at the hands of the Jaguars – throwing a pick-six to hand Jacksonville a 17-0 lead just before half-time that dropped Atlanta into a hole he simply isn’t good enough to dig them out of.
He has been the problem for a team that is right on the verge of competing all season, leading the NFL’s 32nd-ranked passing offense, and the more he plays the easier teams are finding it to limit the Falcons. They haven’t reached double figures in either of their last two outings, and the blueprint for stopping them is very clear.
Sell out to stop the run, force Ridder to beat you through the air. The Lions did it and won 20-6. The Jaguars did it and won 23-7. The Texans have the personnel to do it and score a huge road win here.
- Selection: Houston Texans Moneyline
- Best Odds: 2.15
- Bookmaker: SportingIndex
- Stake: 4/10
Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia Eagles: London Hangover For The Dirty Birds
United States, NFL, Sunday, October 8th, 21:25 (UK)
The unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) travel to the West Coast to take on one of the league’s surprisingly frisky teams, where Matthew Stafford has the Los Angeles Rams (2-2) humming on offence.
Aside from a blip against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 3, the Rams have been putting up points and Puka Nacua has looked good while they were doing it.
LA has a top-10 ranked offence based on EPA per play, and look like they might be able to welcome Cooper Kupp back into the fold in this one – which elevates their passing attack to another level.
On the other side of things are the Philadelphia Eagles, who are one of three sides still yet to be defeated on the year. The trenches are where the Birds are winning their games, and adding DL Jalen Carter in the draft is already looking like a cheat code given the production their unit offered last year.
While Nick Sirriani’s side have been strong on both sides of the ball, they have underwhelmed for some, only ranking 10th for offensive EPA per play and – while that’s been good enough for them to beat up on some below average teams – they are leaving big plays on the field. If anything, they’ve been a little conservative on offence – and it’s leading to a plethora of field goals.
The Eagles are averaging 3.5 field goal attempts per game, converting at least two in all four games, with kicker Jake Elliott sitting at a 93% conversion rate on the year. He’s been automatic from within 50 yards (9/9) and no player has made more from beyond that mark so far this season.
While Philadelphia are attempting lots of field goals, the Rams are forcing a lot of them, with only the New York Jets seeing more attempts against them on the year than LA – and they faced kick happy sides in the Bills and Cowboys.
Opponents are attempting 3.0 field goals per game against the Rams, and have made at least two in three of their four games (including three for the 49ers in their only game at SoFi Stadium).
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