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Horse Racing NFL Week 4 Parlay Picks: Game Lines Parlay at 12.38 Odds
The NFL regular season heads to London in Week 4, as the International Series sees its first game of the year when the Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Atlanta Falcons to their home-away-from-home in Sunday’s extra early slot at 14:30.
After that, attention turns to the nine games in the 6pm slate with the headline clash between AFC East rivals Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins before another AFC East side features in the late slot, with the New England Patriots welcoming the Dallas Cowboys to Foxborough.
Sunday is rounded off by the fourth and final AFC East team, as the New York Jets host the Kansas City Chiefs – who will be looking to impress Taylor Swift once again.
Our NFL expert Joshua Jones has a 12.38 parlay for Week 4 of football action, so if you want more from him, visit our Expert Insights section.
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons: Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0 Handicap
- Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens: Cleveland Browns -2.5 Handicap
- New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 40.5 Points
- Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos: Over 44.5 Points
NFL Week 3 Parlay odds: 12.38
Odds via bet365 as at 00:00, 28th September 2023. Odds may now differ.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons: Back The Better QB In London
United Kingdom, NFL, Sunday, October 1, 14:30 (UK)
The NFL International Series returns to London this weekend, as perennial ‘hosts’ the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) welcome the Atlanta Falcons (2-1) to Wembley Stadium for their tenth game in the English capital. It will be only Atlanta’s third visit to the UK since the series began in 2007, with their most recent visit a 27-21 victory over the New York Jets in 2021.
It’s been a disappointing start to the season for the Jaguars, who had high expectations after last year’s postseason exploits. They routinely dispatched their divisional rival the Indianapolis Colts in their season opener but that’s where they peaked, with back-to-back losses to the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans following.
Now look, there’s no shame in losing to the Chiefs. They’re the reigning Super Bowl Champions and have paired the best QB in the league with the best TE and, arguably, the best play-caller too. The manner of defeat, however, is what should irk Jags fans as they failed to score a single touchdown in that 17-9 loss in their own stadium – being comfortably bested by the Chiefs defence.
To follow that up by dropping an egg against the Houston Texans, who ran out 20-point winners in Jacksonville, is inexcusable and fans will expect them to bounce back here. Despite earning 22 1st downs to Houston’s 15, not only did they lose the turnover battle (2-0), last week was a special teams disaster for Doug Pedersen’s side.
The Texans scored an 85-yard kick–return touchdown, blocked a field goal that put them in Jaguars territory and led to a touchdown, and watched on as Brandon McManus shanked another wide of the upright. The good news, if there is any, is that the luck that went against them in Week 3 is surely a one-off and can’t be replicated.
This week’s opponents, the Atlanta Falcons, came crashing back down to earth in a humbling 20-6 defeat in Detroit last weekend as they were massively outgained in what was their first loss of the season. The Lions had almost double the yards Atlanta managed to gain (358:183) as they were able to stop Bijan Robinson on the ground and force Desmond Ridder to make plays – something he isn’t comfortable doing.
It’s been clear in all three of their games this season that Ridder is the weak point of what looks like a potent offence with a wide range of weapons, and the fact he’s been ‘lucky’ so far won’t last forever for him. The second-year QB has, according to PFF, been the luckiest signal-caller in the league so far with his turnover-worthy plays not leading to turnovers.
Ridder has seven through three games, but only one interception, and regression is heading his way. If Jacksonville can replicate the blueprint Detroit laid out – stop the run and force Atlanta to win through the air – they should be in for success on South Way, especially if Trevor Lawrence and the offence can get their acts together.
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens: Browns Put Lamar In A Blender
United Kingdom, NFL, Sunday, October 1, 14:30 (UK)
It’s yet another divisional game for the Cleveland Browns (2-1) who welcome the Baltimore Ravens (2-1) to Ohio in search of their third home win of the season, with the hosts looking like a potential postseason contender through three weeks. Let’s be clear here, nothing to do with their offense has them in playoff discussions but it’s their defense that has people talking.
The Browns might be the best defence in football. Full stop. It means Deshaun Watson just had to be serviceable for them to pick up victories and he’s doing it, most of the time.
Led by the imperious Myles Garrett, Cleveland have been a headache for opposing quarterbacks all season; with Joe Burrow, Kenny Pickett and, most recently, Ryan Tannehill suffering at the wrath of the Dawgs.
They currently rank 1st against the pass and 2nd against the run to give them the best defensive DVOA in the league, and the 7th best of all-time, allowing just 3.5 yards per play and only one RedZone possession – and that came from a fumble on their own 32-yard line against Tennessee, with the Titans possession going -9 yards for a field goal.
Jim Schwartz’s defence has allowed opponents to score just 6.33 points per game on offence, while their own offence has outgained opponents by 1160 yards to 564 with more than triple the number of first downs (64:21).
The Ravens are the first team with a winning record they have faced though, and Lamar Jackson represents his own unique brand of football that the Browns will have to plan for.
After winning their opening pair of games, Baltimore fell to a disappointing overtime defeat at the hands of Indianapolis and backup QB Gardner Minshew, who capitalised on the Ravens’ mistakes to escape ‘The Bank’ with a dub.
They fumbled the ball four times, losing two of them, as well as missing a field goal to win it and turning it over on downs in overtime to give Indy the ball for their game-winning drive at midfield – the type of misstep the Browns will be all over.
Even aside from the calamities, Baltimore is banged up. Brutally. There are 21 players spread across their injury report, injured reserve, and non-football injury list with seven of the 11 on this week’s report missing practice on Wednesday while a further three were limited.
The good news for the Ravens is offensive linemen Tyler Lindebaum (C) and Ronnie Stanley (T) both practised, as did safety Marcus Williams, although all of them were limited as they look to return from the injuries that have hampered them since Week 1.
- Selection: Cleveland Browns -2.5 Handicap
- Best Odds: 1.87
- Bookmaker: BetVictor
- Stake: 5/10
New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Points Come Tough In The Big Easy
United States, NFL, Sunday, October 1, 18:00 (UK)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) head to Louisiana to face the New Orleans Saints (2-1) in another instalment of their fierce divisional rivalry, with both sides looking for supremacy in the NFC South. Clashes between the two have often been dominated by the WR-CB battle between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore and, with both sides chirping in the build-up, this looks set to be another blockbuster battle.
The rivalry between the two, dating back to Lattimore’s rookie season in 2017, has led to three physical confrontations, an ejection, and two suspensions and the pair will certainly draw a lot of focus. The Saints’ corner has been a thorn for Evans too; in their last seven meetings, he only has 12 catches, 192 yards and just three touchdowns when covered by Lattimore for an average stat line of 1.71-29,5-0.43 compared to his career average of 5.00-76.6-0.60.
Away from that matchup, and against most preseason expectations, both of these sides have winning records to start the year. Tampa’s opening game win over Minnesota was the biggest surprise of the week for many, and Baker Mayfield has had this offence humming.
They dispatched the Chicago Bears 37-17 in Week Two but fell to an expected loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, who were 25-11 victors on Monday Night Football. The Bucs played the Birds close in that game but struggled to create on offence with the pressure that Philadelphia were able to generate and that will be the key for New Orleans here.
They have absolutely clamped opposing offences since Week 7 of the 2022 season, and the Green Bay Packers were yet another victim of this elite unit as they became the 13th consecutive side to score less than 21 points against the Saints.
NOLA’s offense just hasn’t got going yet though either – failing to clear 21 points themselves through three weeks – and now might lose starting QB Derek Carr to the shoulder injury he sustained in the third quarter of last week’s game at Lambeau Field. Former Buc Jameis Winston is the backup in Louisiana and, although he was serviceable in that loss, represents a drop-off from Carr overall and an increase in volatility.
Winston will be remembered with mixed emotions in Florida but will be most notable for the final season performance that saw him become the first player to throw 30 interceptions in a season since Vinny Testaverde in 1988, culminating in a walk-off pick-six in overtime against the Atlanta Falcons in his farewell performance.
Both offenses here and worse than their opposing defense and that should prevail at The Superdome, not to mention the last three meetings between these sides have all seen well below 40 points – even when Tom Brady was under centre.
- Selection: Under 40.5 Total Points
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
- Stake: 5/10
Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos: One 0 Has To Go
United States, NFL, Sunday, October 1, 18:00 (UK)
The hapless Chicago Bears (0-3) head back to Soldier Field to face the wrath of the Illinois faithful, and they host fellow winless outfit the Denver Broncos (0-3) in what already looks like it could be the battle for USC’s Caleb Williams – though if I was him I’d be seriously considering another year at college.
What do you get when you cross the league’s worst defence with the league’s second-worst defence? Loads of points, hopefully.
The Bears and Broncos rank 31st and 32nd for both opponent points per game and defensive EPA (expected points added) per play, respectively. Simply put, a sieve would do a better job of keeping opposing sides out of the end zone than this pair are doing.
It was truly men against boys last week as Denver got it handed to them, with the Miami Dolphins scoring SEVENTY points in an absolute rout that made the Broncos look like those kids in the hilarious mascot games.
It is hard to describe just how bad Sean Payton’s side was, but the only reason Miami didn’t break the all-time record for points scored in a single game was because they felt bad should give a good indication. It was a freak game, of course, but the signs were there when they allowed Sam Howell to dunk 35 points on their head.
The Bears on the other hand, while avoiding the embarrassment of conceding 70 points, haven’t been much better. Chicago has allowed 27+ points in three straight to start the season, with their humbling at Arrowhead last week making it 13 straight losses – 12 of which have seen their opponent score at least 27.
They haven’t slouched on offense though, and are averaging almost 16 points per game despite having faced three top-15 defenses and refusing to use Justin Fields properly with designed runs and RPOs. If ever there was a game to let him off the leash, this is it.
The Broncos have been sneaky good offensively too, ranking 15th overall per DVOA, and should have no issues making plays against Chicago’s porous unit. Denver boasts the 8th-ranked passing offence with Russell Wilson under centre, which seems to be going under the radar a little in the shadow of their brutal defeat.
- Selection: Over 44.5 Total Points
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: Livescorebet
- Stake: 5/10
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