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Mixed martial arts NFL Parlay Picks for Week 9: Game Lines Parlay at 12.26 Odds
The NFL is going global again this week, with the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs travelling to Germany for what could be the best International Series game of all time – kicking off what looks to be an unbelievable slate of TV games.
Following that early start in Europe is the Seattle Seahawks trip east to take on the league’s form side Baltimore Ravens in Maryland before the NFC East juggernauts do battle in the late window – with the Philadelphia Eagles welcoming bitter rivals the Dallas Cowboys as they fight it out for divisional supremacy.
Sunday Night Football is a rematch of last year’s AFC Divisional game between two of the league’s most exciting quarterbacks – with Joe Burrow’s Cincinnati Bengals welcoming Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills to Ohio.
Our NFL expert Joshua Jones has a 12.26 parlay for Week 9 of football action, so if you want more from him, visit our Expert Insights section.
- Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins: Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 Points
- Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks: Baltimore Ravens -5.5 Points
- New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears: Alvin Kamara Over 31.5 Receiving Yards
- Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts: Indianapolis Colts Over 117.5 Rushing Yards
NFL Week 8 Parlay odds: 12.26
Odds via bet365 as at 00:00, 2nd November 2023. Odds may now differ.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins: Mahomes Makes Munich Magic
Germany, NFL, Sunday, November 5th, 14:30 (UK)
The NFL makes its way back to Germany on Sunday with potentially the most interesting game the league has ever sent international, as the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) go to battle with the Miami Dolphins (6-2) for AFC supremacy. The pair make up half of the four AFC teams currently sitting at six wins on the season, and each occupy the top two spots in the division.
Miami took care of business in Week 8, comfortably dispatching the New England Patriots at the Hard Rock Stadium by two scores, running out 31-17 winners off the back of Jalen Ramsey’s impressive debut. The former Ram picked off Mac Jones as the Pats were driving to tie the score before the half, taking it back 49 yards to set the Dolphins up for a field goal inside the two-minute drill.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, suffered potentially their most embarrassing loss of the entire Patrick Mahomes era at the hands of divisional rivals Denver Broncos – falling to 6-2 while being manhandled by a side that ranked as the worst defence in the league (per DVOA) heading into the week.
Andy Reid’s side managed just nine total points in the game, eventually losing by 15, whilst losing the turnover battle 5-1. It was a disastrous day for Mahomes under centre who, dealing with flu symptoms, lost a fumble, threw two interceptions, and was sacked three times for -28 yards.
That game was a stark anomaly for the oft-reliable Chiefs, who hadn’t lost by more than a touchdown since Week 7 2021, and now attention turns to a must-win game across the Atlantic in what feels like a great ‘buy-low’ spot.
The expectation is that the lingering effects of whatever illness was affecting Mahomes at mile-high shouldn’t be bothering him anymore and in a game with a spread as close as this one, it feels smarter to take the better quarterback – and his record speaks for itself.
In games where the Chiefs were underdogs or favoured by less than three points, Patty is 19-6-1 against-the-spread and for the first time in his life he’s supported by a genuinely great defence. KC are one of a handful of teams to ever rank top 5 for offensive, defensive, and special teams DVOA after eight games, and the edge they hold over Miami on defence and special teams is rather significant.
The Dolphins, despite ranking 1st for offensive DVOA, are a bottom-12 side for both defensive (22nd) and special teams (25th) DVOA and that really shows up in close games for them.
In matchups against good teams (top-10 in total DVOA) with, at minimum, competent defences (top-20 for defensive DVOA) Mike McDaniel’s side are 0-2 on the season. The Floridians have failed each of their tests against Buffalo and Philadelphia, losing by an aggregate score of 71-37, whilst racking up an average of just 318.5 total yards of offence – compared to their mark of 498.2 yards per game across their six wins.
Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks: Ravens Boss Bird Battle
United States, NFL, Sunday, November 5th, 18:00 (UK)
The league’s form team made it three wins in a row last weekend when the Baltimore Ravens (6-2) dispatched the sorry Arizona Cardinals, and now they welcome the season’s dark horse Seattle Seahawks (5-2) to Maryland, looking to separate themselves further from the chasing pack in the AFC play-off race.
The visitors – who we opposed in last week’s parlay – were very fortunate victors at home to the PJ Walker-led Cleveland Browns and, had it not been for the backup QB’s egregious errors, were likely staring down the barrel of defeat in a game that saw defences dominate.
Walker’s third turnover of the game, a terrible interception as the two-minute warning struck, was enough to give Geno Smith the short field he needed to drive for the game-winning touchdown for which 4th-year QB simpy had no answer.
Smith, despite leading the game-winning scoring drive, wasn’t much better across the four quarters – throwing two interceptions himself as well as fumbling one that was recovered by the offence whilst setting his lowest mark for completion percentage since the opening week hammering at the hands of the Rams.
Now he faces a Ravens defence that has made life hell for opposing quarterbacks – overtaking the Browns as the league’s best in Week 8 – that has the quarterback themselves in Lamar Jackson that can, and will, take advantage of the opportunities afforded to him.
It seems we’re a long way away from the Baltimore side that went down with a whimper to Pittsburgh in Week 5, and since then everything has been clicking for Todd Monken’s offence.
Their 31-24 victory over the Cardinals in Week 8 was an efficient performance that really wasn’t close unti late in the 4th quarter. The Ravens led 24-7 after a Justin Tucker field goal with nine minutes left of the game, at which point the Cardinals had just 139 yards of total offence and 13 first downs.
At the minute, it feels like Baltimore has no glaring weaknesses and you only have to look at the way they dismantled the Detroit Lions a couple of weeks ago to see what they can do to opposing offences.
- Selection: Baltimore Ravens -5.5 Points
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: 888sport
- Stake: 4/10
New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears: Kamara’s The Catch-And-Run King
United States, NFL, Sunday, November 5th, 18:00 (UK)
The Chicago Bears (2-6) are heading to Louisiana on a short week to take on the New Orleans Saints (4-4), with the hosts favoured by an almost-ridiculous 8.5 points – even if they are facing arguably the league’s worst side.
The Saints put together potentially their most complete offensive performance of the season in Week 8, dispatching the Indianapolis Colts 38-27 as they moved level at .500 with the Atlanta Falcons atop the NFC South.
The Bears, on the other hand, came plummeting back down to earth with a 30-13 humbling at the hands of the Los Angeles Chargers – having thumped the Las Vegas Raiders the week before.
It was a rough night for their undrafted free agent quarterback Tyson Bagent, who threw two interceptions, fumbled the ball once and tried to throw another pick on a failed fourth down conversion, and that was against a Chargers defence that ranks just 27th, per DVOA.
Now he faces a much sterner test in New Orleans’ #8 ranked defence, though they have lost their way a little after starting the season in lights-out mode. NOLA has conceded 27+ points in back-to-back games having prevented five of their opponents from passing 20 points through their first six games – allowing an average of just 16.0 points per game.
On the other side of the ball, the Saints’ offence runs through Alvin Kamara. Since his return in Week 4, the running-back has seen at least 20 touches in all five games he has started – and he’s been getting his work done in both the rushing and receiving game.
Despite missing the first three games of the season, the veteran ranks as the league leader for targets (44) amongst running-backs, and he’s lightyears ahead of anyone since his return. His 44 targets ranks 15 higher targets than the next best guy (Josh Jacobs, 29) and sees him ranked as the 14th most targeted player – all positions – in that same window.
He’s surpassed this line in four of the five games this year, and now faces a Chicago defence that has been gashed by pass-catching backs. The Bears have allowed a league-high 62.1 receiving yards per game to opposition RBs; with Austin Ekeler (94), Aaron Jones (86), Antonio Gibson (64), and Jaleel McLaughlin (32) all setting season-highs against them.
Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts: Carolina Can’t Catch Colts
United States, NFL, Sunday, November 5th, 21:05 (UK)
The previously winless Carolina Panthers (1-6) notched the first win of Bryce Young’s fledgling NFL career last Sunday with a 15-13 victory over the Houston Texans, and now welcome another AFC South side in the Indianapolis Colts (3-5) to The Bank.
The visitors are looking to halt a skid that has seen them suffer three straight losses despite averaging over 28.0 points per game with Gardner Minshew under centre, going down 38-27 to the New Orleans Sains in the latest of those defeats.
The issue for the Colts is that they’re shipping points at an alarming rate – allowing an average of 38.0 per game during this winless stretch – and now have to travel to a confident Carolina side buoyed by their first win of the year.
Switching play-calling to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown had the desired effect for the Panthers, who bamboozled the Houston defence with a plethora of pre-snap motion and gimmicks to make life easier for their rookie QB.
Carolina’s run defence remains a problem though, and even though they recorded their best mark of the season so far against the Texans – they still allowed an anaemic Houston running game to top 100 yards for just the third time this season.
Outside of that, Frank Reich’s side have allowed opponents to rush for 130 yards or more in all six of their games – with opponents averaging 144.1 rushing yards per game against their porous defence, a mark that would rank them as the league’s 2nd worst run-defence.
They now face an Indianapolis Colts side that, outside of their two meetings with Jacksonville (the league’s 4th best rushing defence) has exploded on the ground with the two-headed behemoth in their backfield.
With their 1:2 punch of 2021 rushing leader Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, Indy has been gashing opponents on the ground. They have topped this mark in each of their other six games at an average of 154 yards per game and should be able to do whatever they wish here.
- Selection: Indianapolis Colts Over 117.5 Rushing Yards
- Best Odds: 1.86
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 6/10
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