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Horse Racing NFL Parlay Picks for Week 11: NFL Player Props Parlay at 13.28 Odds
We are already into Week 11 of NFL action, and the early slate on Sunday is headlined by what looks set to be a low-scoring divisional matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns in Ohio, in what looks set to be a war of attrition between two sides desperate to keep pace with division leaders Baltimore.
Into the late slate, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to a different bay over on the West Coast to take on the San Francisco 49ers – who bounced back to snap their three-game losing streak against Jacksonville in Week 10.
Following that, Sunday Night Football is live from Mile High when the resurgent Denver Broncos welcome the surging Minnesota Vikings to Colorado, as the NFL’s two form sides look to keep their winning streaks alive.
Our NFL expert Joshua Jones has a 13.28 parlay for Week 11 of football action, so if you want more from him, visit our Expert Insights section.
- Green Bay Packers vs LA Chargers: Luke Musgrave Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
- Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 21.5 Receiving Yards
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennesee Titans: Christian Kirk Over 58.5 Receiving Yards
- Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings: Joshua Dobbs Over 26.5 Rushing Yards
NFL Week 8 Parlay odds: 13.28
Odds via bet365 as at 00:00, 16th November 2023. Odds may now differ.
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers: Lambeau Luke Leaves LA Lost
United States, NFL, Sunday, November 19th, 18:00 (UK)
It was heartbreak in Pittsburgh last week for the Green Bay Packers (3-6), where back-to-back Jordan Love interceptions handed the game to the Steelers, and now they welcome the Los Angeles Chargers (4-5) suffering their own heartache to Lambeau Field.
The Chargers went down to a last-gasp field goal to Green Bay’s divisional rival Detroit last Sunday and, despite putting 38 points on the board, fell to 4-5 on the season – losing a game when scoring 30+ points for the second time this year.
Their pass defence has been absolute Swiss cheese, and it was exposed last weekend by Ben Johnson’s creative playcalling as the Lions racked up over 500 yards of total offence without committing a turnover.
No side in the entire NFL has allowed opposing quarterbacks to pass for more yards per game (315.7) than this Chargers defence and they are really in a league of their own – with a bigger gap between LA and the 2nd worst side Tampa Bay (30.4 yards) than there is between the Bucs and the 11th worst side (29.5 yards).
That should be music to the ears of a Green Bay side that has really struggled to get anything going offensively for most of the season, though Jordan Love is coming off a career game in that loss to Pittsburgh.
Despite the multiple interceptions, the Packers play-caller registered a career-high for yards and showed signs that he was finally trusting his receivers to run their routes and get open rather than holding on to the ball and waiting for them to be wide open before finally getting rid of the ball.
One man who should benefit from this is rookie tight end Luke Musgrave, who also registered a career-high for receiving yards last weekend. The 2nd rounder had 64 yards against the Steelers in that game, and has hit this mark in six of nine starts this year – including four of his last five.
He gets a favourable match-up here against a Chargers unit that allows the 2nd-most yards per game to opposing tight ends (68.3) – a number that ranks well above average even without Travis Kelce’s ridiculous 179-yard game in Week 7.
Seven of the nine TE1’s that have faced this LA defence have surpassed 30 yards in the game, so don’t be surprised if Musgrave adds his name to the list too.
Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears: Good God Gibbs Is Good
United States, NFL, Sunday, November 19th, 18:00 (UK)
The Detroit Lions (7-2) escaped California with the ‘dub’ by the skin of their teeth in Week 10, as Riley Patterson’s field goal as time expired secured a win over the Chargers. Now they travel back to Michigan to take on divisional rivals the Chicago Bears, who moved to 3-7 with an ugly win over the Carolina Panthers.
That Thursday Night Football match-up means Chicago are coming off extended rest for this one, and it looks as though QB Justin Fields is expected to start his first game in over a month at Ford Field.
It means Tyson Bagent went 2-2 in his time as the starter for the Bears, an impressive return for an undrafted Divison II QB, He took care of business in Carolina, improving their draft position in the process, and now Fields will be looking to ruin Detroit’s homecoming party – as the Lions look to move to 8-2 for the first tme since 1962.
Their last-gasp 41-38 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 10 was powered massively by their ground game in the first half – with their one-two punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combining for 177 yards and three touchdowns before the break.
Rookie Jahmyr Gibbs was a huge positive for Detroit in both the rushing and receiving game, and he’s been fantastic in his first half-season as an NFL back – especially as a receiver.
Gibbs ranks 7th amongst all running backs for yards per game this year (28.6) and has surpassed this line in four of his seven starts, including each of his last three as he develops more trust with his quarterback and coaching staff.
In the Bears he gets an extremely positive matchup as, even though Chicago ranks as the 2nd best defence for yards allowed to running backs, they are the worst defence in the league when it comes to receiving yards allowed to RBs.
Chicago allows 60.5 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs – a higher mark than they allow on the ground (59.3) – and has seen 11 opponents surpass this line through 10 games this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans: Kirk Can Cook
United States, NFL, Sunday, November 19th, 18:00 (UK)
It’s a divisional matchup down in Florida, as the Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3) welcome AFC South rivals Tennessee Titans (3-6) to the EverBank stadium, with both sides looking to get-right after a dreadful outing in Week 10.
Both of these teams endured days to forget last weekend, and no-one will be looking to rectify things more than Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence. He was put in a blender by the new-look San Francisco 49ers defensive line on Sunday afternoon – throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble to Nick Bosa in a 34-3 hammering.
Meanwhile, Tennessee endured their own nightmare down in the bay as Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ripped their defence to shreds on the way to a 20-6 victory – with Evans registering over 150 receiving yards and a TD in the win.
The Tennessee defence has been absolutely woeful defending wideouts all season, and they have allowed 182.9 yards per game to opposing receivers through nine games – the 7th-highest figure in the league.
The only Jaguar to come out of last week’s abysmal performance against San Francisco was wide receiver Christian Kirk – who totalled 106 receiving yards on six receptions, outperforming the rest of Jacksonville’s receiving unit combined by 18 yards and accounting for 56% of Lawrence’s passing yards on 38% of targets.
That sort of reliability goes a long way in the NFL, and Kirk has quietly been enjoying a fantastic year on the way to a second consecutive 1,000-yard season.
The Aggies graduate has established himself as Jacksonville’s leading pass-catcher, despite the presence of Calvin Ridley, and leads the team in yards, receptions, and targets. He has managed to surpass this line in five of his nine starts this year and
On the season; Amari Cooper (Browns), Chris Olave (Saints), and Keenan Allen (Chargers), have all dropped 100-yard games on Tennessee, whilst Josh Downs (Colts), Diontae Johnson (Steelers), and Ja’Marr Chase all racked up over 70 yards.
Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings: Dobbs Does Denver
United States, NFL, Monday, November 20th, 01:15 (UK)
Two sides that looked dead and buried a few weeks ago have resurrected their seasons and now meet at Mile High on Sunday Night Football, where the Denver Broncos (4-5) welcome the Joshua Dobbs-led Minnesota Vikings (6-4) to Colorado.
Dobbs picked up right where Kirk Cousins left off (via Jaren Hall) in Minnesota, leading them to a win in his first appearance and then a win in his first start to make it five consecutive wins for the Vikings – putting them firmly in play-off contention after starting the season 1-4.
Russel Wilson’s Denver Broncos have enjoyed a similar resurgence, with a win over the Buffalo Bills on Monday night their third consecutive victory after starting 1-5 and setting records for their defensive struggles.
It’s a testament to Sean Payton’s nouse as a head coach that he’s been able to turn the team around from their woeful early season performances and pick up victories over two of the AFC’s ‘elite’ in Buffalo and divisional rival Kansas City Chiefs.
Dobbs represents a significantly different challenge for the Broncos’ defence though and even though Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are proficient with their legs, they aren’t as willing to break loose and the numbers show that.
Dobbs ranks 2nd among QBs for total rushing yards and 3rd amongst QBs for total rushing attempts across his time at both Arizona and Minnesota, racking up more yards on the ground that the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Austin Ekeler, and Aaron Jones.
The former Cleveland Brown (how they wish they hadn’t traded him in pre-season) ran for 44 yards on eight carries against the New Orleans Saints last week, making it seven times in 10 games he’s surpassed this line this year (and four of his last five) – with another game finishing on exactly 26 yards.
His ‘per-game’ average of 36.8 yards per game far exceeds this line – which without his two worst games is bumped up to 45.8 per game – and now he faces a Denver Broncos side that are tragic when it comes to missed tackles.
With Justin Jefferson set to return from IR this week, and TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison to keep tabs on, Denver’s secondary will have a lot to deal with – which should mean Dobbs has time and room to escape the pocket.
NOVEMBER 13-19 IS SAFER GAMBLING WEEK 2023
November 13-19 marks an important date in the calendar. Safer Gambling Week is a significant industry-wide event that aims to shed more light on responsible betting. For more information and advice, head to the bettingexpert Safer Gambling hub or our brief explainer below.
