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Horse Racing Does Tua Tagovailoa Deserve to be the NFL MVP Early Betting Favourite?
On the back of the Dolphins’ 2-0 start, Tua Tagovailoa has moved to favourite to win NFL MVP. Tagovailoa was out in the 20.00 range before Week 1, but has seen his price drop considerably amid a pair of impressive performances and struggles for the other contenders.
Through two weeks, Tagovailoa leads the league in passing yards, yards per attempt, and yards per completion. Miami has scored 60 points, torching the Chargers defence and putting up 24 against the Patriots.
There is a blueprint for this level of play from Tagovailoa. While concussion issues disrupted his 2022 regular season, he still led the league in touchdown percentage, yards per attempt, and yards per completion while posting 272.9 yards per game. In short, he was putting up near MVP numbers in a 13-game sample, which is why there looked to be value out at 21.00 before the season began.
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In this article:
- Tua Tagovailoa NFL MVP Winner Odds
- The Injury Concern
- Metrics favour Him
- Good time to back Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa NFL MVP Winner Odds
| Tua Tagovailoa NFL MVP Winner Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | Fanduel | Draft Kings | Pinnacle | BetGM |
| 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.80 | / | 6.00 |
Odds available as of September 26th 2023. Odds may now differ.
The Injury Concern
Tagovailoa has been sacked just once through the first two games of the campaign, but there’s no denying that head injuries are a part of weighing up his MVP candidacy. For all the judo training during the offseason, it is a clear risk to backing Tagovailoa in this market.
At a best price of 4.00 with Bet36, bettors need to be confident Tagovailoa can play the full season. You only have to look back to last year’s MVP race for a reminder of how injury can change the discussion – Jalen Hurts may well have won the award if he had stayed fit.
It is a long season, and Tagovailoa has never played more than 13 games since arriving in the NFL in 2020.
Metrics Favour Him
Advanced metrics, including Expected Points Added, place Tagovailoa top among all quarterbacks after Week 2. Yes, we are still dealing in small samples, but there are good signs for Tagovailoa in this high-octane Dolphins offence.
Thus far, he has the highest completed air yards per completion, and only Sam Howell has a lower percentage of bad throws.
The injury concern is lessened by how Miami have protected Tagovailoa, too. Only Jimmy Garoppolo has been pressured less often per dropback. Just two quarterbacks have been blitzed more often, but Tagovailoa has been hurried just three times.
With Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill healthy, Tagovailoa has arguably the league’s best receiving duo, too.
Good time to back Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa is the deserving MVP favourite right now. The Chiefs and Bills have not been impressive, which hurts Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. The Chargers are 0-2 and Trevor Lawrence has led the Jaguars to only 40 points across two games. It’s hard to know how much we can read into the Ravens’ 2-0 start.
Miami faces the Broncos at home in Week 3, which is a game they should win at a canter. It’s then a trip to Buffalo before hosting the Giants and Panthers. Tagovailoa has ample opportunity to post some big numbers in the coming weeks, with 5-1 seeming like a worst-case scenario for the Dolphins.
Even with doubts about durability, there is value in backing Tagovailoa at this price before his odds shorten in the coming weeks.
SAFER GAMBLING
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