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Boxing Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Same-Game Parlay: 4.50 Player Prop Builder for Sunday
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Same-Game Parlay, Opta Stats, Player Props
The Miami Dolphins (3-0) look to continue their imperious start to the season with a trip north to take on divisional rivals Buffalo Bills (2-1), with both sides looking to assert their dominance at the top of the AFC.
Our resident NFL expert Joshua Jones has a 4.50 same-game parlay that sees the hosts handing Miami their first defeat of the season.
For more expert predictions, visit our Expert Insights section.
Same-Game Parlay odds: 4.50
United States, NFL, Sunday October 1st, 18:00
Odds via bet365 as at 02:00, Friday, September 29th 2023. Odds may now differ.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Same-Game Parlay: AFC East Bragging Rights At Stake In New York
Both Teams to Score 20+ Points
The NFL’s two best sides through three weeks of football go head-to-head for divisional domination in a game that is, inexplicably, not being played in primetime.
Miami made the Denver Broncos look like amateurs last weekend, going for SEVENTY POINTS in a rout that made the history books – as the Dolphins racked up the most points scored by a team since Washington dropped 72 on the New York Giants in 1966, 57 years ago.
It was a masterclass in pre-snap movement, scheming, and playing to your strengths from HC Mike McDaniel who pulled out every trick in the book to bamboozle the Broncos. Rookie RB De’Von Achane went for 204 yards and 2 TDs on 18 carries as Miami racked up over 700 yards of all-purpose offence.
The Dolphins ranked as the league’s best offence (per DVOA) even before Week 3 and only increased the consensus that they are by beating the brakes off of Denver. Since McDaniel took office, they’ve reached 20 points against Buffalo in all three of their meetings (averaging 27 points per game) and haven’t scored less in their last eleven games with Tua under centre.
Buffalo, meanwhile, are the league’s best side per DVOA, have had no trouble putting points and the board and – if it weren’t for Josh Allen malfunctioning against the Jets – would also be 3-0, having done more than enough to win each of their games.
Allen’s 3-interception display on the season-opening Monday Night Football really lit a fire under Buffalo and they clearly used that pain as motivation before going out and hammering the Las Vegas Raiders and Washington Commanders by a combined 75-13.
The Bills have outgained opponents by more than 115 yards per game and absolutely love playing in their own building. Dating back to December 2021, Buffalo has scored 20 or more points in 13 straight home fixtures – averaging 29.2 per game in that span.
Buffalo Bills Moneyline
While both these teams have seriously elite offences, only one boasts a truly elite defence. The hosts are ranked 2nd on DVOA for defence, having kept opponents (albeit the Jets, Raiders, and Commanders) to just one offensive touchdown combined – with an EPA per play of -0.271.
I think Buffalo will have seen the way New England were able to limit Tyreek Hill and the rest of Miami’s offence in their Week 2 meeting, keeping them to ‘just’ 389 total yards compared to an average of 631 in their other two victories, and will have a gameplan for how they win this one.
Bill Belichick essentially sold out to stop the pass, challenging the Dolphins to beat his side on the ground – trotting out three safeties for the majority of Miami’s possessions and keeping everything in front of them to prevent huge plays. The Patriots were able to do that with an average defensive line and mounting injuries across their coverage unit, so Sean McDermott will feel an opportunity to go one better.
The Bills’ defensive success comes mostly from their elite defensive front – registering pressures on over 30% of their pass rushes without blitzing – which means they can scheme it up on the back end with maximum efficiency without worrying about not having enough personnel to cover the Dolphins’ routes.
This should come in especially handy against the Dolphins’ fluid offence and means they can offer safety help across the field without worrying about Tua having time to let routes develop – though he is currently taking less than 2.5 seconds to throw the football despite averaging more air yards per attempt (6.0) than any other quarterback.
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer
As good as the Patriots were defensively in that Week 2 game, and as much as it gives the Bills a blueprint moving forward, the Dolphins were still able to drop 24 points on them and it might have been more had they not whiffed on two field goals (one blocked, one missed).
Tyreek Hill was still able to get his too and despite only having 40 yards receiving on the day, added a 2nd quarter score to put the Fins up 17-3 before half-time – which he followed up with a 54-yarder against Denver to make it four on the season.
Hill has now scored a touchdown in all three of his games in 2023 and bagged one in his only regular-season visit to Orchard Park as a Miami Dolphin. While the Bills might have the scheme and personnel to cause Tua Tagovailoa problems, Hill is a matchup issue for all defensive players and you only have to look at the way he cooked JC Jackson in Miami’s opener to see you can never write him off.
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