Dan Hooker vs Dustin Poirier Preview - bettingexpert

Dustin Poirier-Daniel Hooker

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Dustin Poirier

A heavy-handed southpaw with sharp boxing and jiu-jitsu is Dustin Poirier (25-6-0, 1NC). “The Diamond” initially started his career in the 145-pound division, but continuous issues making weight would result in a very successful move to 155 pounds where he competes to this day. A knockout loss to McGregor would be the tipping point for Poirier, who was 9-2 in the UFC prior to his fight with the Irishman. Poirier’s run at lightweight would see him getting his hands on the interim title, beating Max Holloway for the second time in a crazy 5-round slugfest. Poirier was then next in line to face Nurmagomedov but fell short as 28 had done before him. Now, Poirier believes he is still in the mix for the title, and a win over Hooker would mean he is next in line for a shot at the winner of Gaethje vs. Nurmagomedov if we believe McGregor doesn’t come back and skip the line once again.

Poirier stands at 5’9” tall with a reach of 72”. He is merely 31 years old. Striking is where he is best, and he lands 5.51 significant strikes while absorbing 3.97 every minute, on average. Don’t be fooled by his KO power though, as he is a very well-rounded mixed martial artist with a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He defends himself against 61% of takedown attempts and lands 1,55 every 15 minutes, on average. On the feet, Poirier is dangerous for any man and Hooker will have to be careful if we want to stand and trade with this powerhouse.

Poirier has 8 knockouts in the UFC and a whopping 9 performance bonuses. He surrenders 3 inches in height and reach to Dan Hooker.

Dan Hooker

The last time we saw Australian Dan Hooker was when he got the nod against Paul Felder on home soil. In a close and brutal battle, Felder and Hooker went he distance and the judges ruled Hooker the victor. Now, Hooker moves up a step in competition as he faces no. 3 ranked UFC lightweight Dustin Poirier. Hooker is ranked no. 5 himself.

Hooker is as good a brawler as you’re going to get. The guy absorbs more than he lands, but it really doesn’t matter because his chin seems to be made of granite. He has never been knocked out with a blow to the head, but was, per definition, knocked out by a body kick against Edson Barboza after enduring a devastating 3 round beatdown. Hooker was a long reach and he can handle himself on the ground too. He has 10 knockouts, 7 submissions and 3 decision wins. In the UFC, he is 10-4 with 6 knockouts.

Hooker relies on his chin when he fights, and always seems to believe that he can take whatever his opponent is throwing at him and still stay standing. This tendency means that he gets hit, sure, but he also finds his openings when his opponents overextend or load up on punches. He is also good at using his long reach to his advantage, knocking out 170-pound title contender Gilbert Burns with a great showcase for distance control.

Hooker is 30 years old.

How will the fight play out?

This fight will most likely play out on the feet for the most part. Both guys are good on the ground but they will probably both believe that they need a knockout to win. Hooker often drags his opponents into slugfests, which might not favor Poirier in this matchup. Poirier is tough, but his chin isn’t among the greatest in the division and has been knocked out twice in the UFC. Even in fights that “The Diamond” has won we’ve seen him hurt. We saw him wobbled against Max Holloway and Eddie Alvarez, while also being clipped a few times against Justin Gaethje. Hooker isn’t as headless as 2018-Gaethje though and stays more on the outside which might be outside of Poirier’s usual range.

Poirier does have more experience going 5 rounds, however, and we’ve seen Hooker face the consequences of brawling with dangerous opponents in his fight with Barboza where the damage started to accumulate after the second round. Barboza did find success implementing leg kicks and body strikes which is something we haven’t seen much of from Poirier.

Poirier is the more technical and evolved boxer, so Hooker probably needs a knockdown or a takedown to take this fight via decision. If not, he needs to end this fight inside the distance, which very well could happen if he drags Poirier into deep waters.

Betting considerations

Hooker is a 2.62 underdog with bookmakers right now, while Poirier is the 1.53 favorite. This is the biggest underdog Hooker has ever been in his 10 UFC fights which is interesting to keep in mind. Poirier has been in three brawls recently: Holloway, Gaethje, and Alvarez. He did walk away with his hand raised each time, but not without being hurt at one point in all of those fights. The amount of experience that Poirier has is definitely an advantage, but he has also had a long career and has taken lots of damage. Hooker has the momentum in this fight, as he is coming off a three-fight win streak while Poirier is coming off a loss. Perhaps all those factors could make Hooker worth a punt.