UFC Fight Night: Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov Preview - bettingexpert

Curtis Blaydes-Alexander Volkov

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UFC Fight Night: Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov Preview

Preview updated Thursday, 11 June 2020, 10.11. Please note that odds are subject to change.

On the 21st of June. the UFC returns as it hosts its fourth event in the APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. This time, we have a great heavyweight main event, where we get to see prospect Curtis Blaydes taking on Russian Alexander Volkov. This fight might determine who is next in line for a fight against Francis Ngannou, or the champion. Curtis Blaydes is ranked no. 3 in the UFC’s heavyweight division, while Alexander Volkov is ranked no. 7. Let’s have a closer look at this interesting matchup.

Curtis Blaydes

Curtis “Razor” Blaydes (13-2-0, 1NC) is making his return to the octagon for the second time this year, after beating the brakes off heavyweight legend Junior Dos Santos. Sure he was the favorite with bookmakers, but who would’ve predicted that he would knock out JDS? Blaydes is primarily a wrestler that drags opponents to the ground and beats them with ferocious ground and pound. His size is also a big advantage for him, standing 193 cm tall with a whopping +2 m wingspan. Blaydes usually weighs in around the upper limit of the heavyweight division, which is 265 lbs. We often see that wrestlers find it easier to get their opponents to the ground if they’re bigger than them, and the same goes for Blaydes.

As with most grapplers, Blaydes is most vulnerable on the feet. His only two career losses have been via knockout, both times against the dangerous Francis Ngannou. After both losses, Blaydes has shown that he can bounce back with ease, which is a big feat in combat sports. Blaydes lands 3.74 significant strikes while absorbing 1.86 per minute, on average. He defends himself against 57% of strikes thrown at him and lands 51% of his own. Blaydes has an impressive takedown average of 6.63 per 15 minutes, which means that he usually lands 6-7 takedowns in a three-round fight. He lands 55% of his takedowns while only having a 25% takedown defense, primarily because he wants to go to the ground with almost anybody.

At 29 years old, Blaydes has yet to enter his fighting prime and is still a very hot prospect in the heavyweight division. He is riding on a wave of momentum after knocking out former UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos, in the second round. Blaydes is 8-2-1 in the UFC and has 3 decisions and 5 knockouts. He has only lost twice, both times by KO to Ngannou. He surrenders 7 cm in height to Volkov.

Alexander Volkov

Alexander “Drago” Volkov takes on Blaydes on the 21st of June. The Russian is a striker, with 5.36 significant strikes landed per minute and 2.48 absorbed. “Drago” is very accurate with his strikes, and lands 60% of the time, he hits the target. Impressive! Volkov is also good defensively, with a 58% striking defensive percentage. Volkov prefers to fight on the feet and will do everything he can to stay standing if his opponent goes for his legs. With a 76% takedown defense, he only gets put on his back 3/10 times. Volkov is very tall (2 m) and has an equally long reach to Blaydes, at 80”. Volkov is a bit lighter though, usually weighing in around 250 lbs.

It has been some time since we last saw Volkov in the octagon. The last time he fought, it was against Greg Hardy, a former football player, where Volkov won a clear unanimous decision, out striking Hardy almost 2 to 1.

Prior to a fight with fan-favorite Derrick “The Black Beast” Lewis, Volkov was 4-0 in the UFC, but a devastating blow from Lewis in the final seconds of their bout would hand the Russian his first loss in the octagon. Volkov has 3 decisions and 2 knockouts in the UFC. He has only lost once, via knockout, to Lewis.

How will the fight play out?

Both men have their clear cut path to victory. Blaydes needs to get this fight to the mat and dominate. Volkov wants nothing to do with a wrestling match and will try to remain standing to beat Blaydes. If Blaydes remains standing he gets chewed up and if Volkov gets taken down too many times where Blaydes can implement his vicious ground and pound, he probably won’t be conscious for the final buzzer. Both men are masters of their domain, but we know that the wrestler usually gets the best of the striker. Why is this? The threat of the takedown usually forces the striker into an overly defensive-minded position, where he opens himself up to strikes. Volkov has been taken down 5 times in the UFC, but he has never lost against a grappler. Blaydes on the other hand has faced adversity against dangerous strikers, quite a few times. He has been wobbled by Overeem, Hunt, and Ngannou knocked him out twice.

Betting considerations

Usually, we see that the value is on the underdog, in the heavyweight division and 2020 has underlined that this is the case. Not too long ago we saw Oleinik get the upset against Fabricio Werdum, being a 3.50 underdog. Overeem also got the better of Walt Harris in May, as a 2.50 underdog. Volkov could be worth a punt, currently being a 3.25 underdog with bookies.