Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig Prediction - Champions League
Sturm Graz hosts RB Leipzig at the 28 Black Arena in what is the final match of the regular Champions League phase. Both teams, currently sitting in lowly positions (Sturm Graz at 33rd and RB Leipzig at 30th), have already been eliminated from advancing further, making this clash a battle for pride.
Managed by Jürgen Säumel, Sturm Graz has struggled recently with a form of LLDLW and a fragile defense, evidenced by a crushing 5-0 defeat to Atalanta. On the other hand, Marco Rose’s Leipzig enters this match following a series of mixed results (DWDLW) but remains the favorite given their better goal-scoring record.
With a temperature of 4°C and broken clouds forecasted, expect a chilly evening game. Given the teams’ status and an anticipated slow start, a recommended bet is a first goal between the 31st and 40th minute.
Referee Mykola Balakin will oversee the action, lending an authoritative presence to this European tie.
Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig Prediction & Betting Tip
| Sturm Graz vs. RB Leipzig Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting tip | Odds |
| First goal between 31″ and 40″ | 7 |
- Both teams are at the bottom of the table with little at stake, which is likely to result in a cautious start.
- RB Leipzig, despite being the favorites, tend to concede goals later in the match, particularly in the intervals 61-75 and 76-90.
- The weather conditions favor a slow start, with the cold temperature and broken clouds possibly affecting the pace of play early on.
Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig Odds
| Sturm Graz vs. RB Leipzig Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Sturm Graz | 3.54 |
| Draw | 3.75 |
| RB Leipzig | 1.97 |
RB Leipzig enters this match as the bookmakers’ favourites with odds of 1.97 to win. Sturm Graz, struggling towards the bottom of the table, have odds of 3.54 to pull off an upset. A draw is also on the cards with odds at 3.75.
Given Leipzig’s scoring prowess and Sturm Graz’s defensive vulnerabilities, these odds reflect the anticipated dominance of the German side. However, a relatively slow start is expected due to both teams’ lack of higher stakes in this match.
Sturm Graz Team Analysis
Sturm Graz has had a rough patch recently, as indicated by their form LLDLW (Loss, Loss, Draw, Loss, Win). They’re sitting at the lower end of the table and have been troubled on both ends of the pitch.
| Home team | Away team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | Sturm Graz | 5-0 (Loss) |
| Sturm Graz | Rijeka | 0-2 (Loss) |
| Sturm Graz | HNK Orijent 1919 | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Grasshopper | Sturm Graz | 1-0 (Loss) |
| Sturm Graz | FC Lugano | 2-1 (Win) |
Sturm Graz has struggled to score, averaging just 0.60 goals in their last five games. Defensive issues are apparent as they haven’t kept a clean sheet in this period. Their last win came against FC Lugano, providing a rare bright spot in a challenging run. In their final Champions League outing, they will need solid performances, particularly from their top scorer Otar Kiteishvili, if they’re to end on a high note.
Sturm Graz Key Players
For Sturm Graz, midfielder Otar Kiteishvili stands out as the team’s top scorer with a single goal this season. Although his scoring record may not be prolific, his playmaking skills will be crucial for any potential offensive success.
Filip Luberecki, who recently attracted interest from Sturm Graz, won’t feature, but his lack of transfer doesn’t affect the current squad. In the defensive line, Gregory Wüthrich and Emanuel Aiwu are pivotal, tasked with keeping RB Leipzig’s potent attack at bay.
Expected lineup for Sturm Graz:
- Goalkeeper: Kjell Scherpen
- Defenders: Arjan Malic, Emanuel Aiwu, Gregory Wüthrich, Dimitri Lavalée
- Midfielders: Tochi Chukwuani, Jon Gorenc-Stankovic, Malick Yalcouye, Otar Kiteishvili
- Attackers: William Böving, Amady Camara
Key battles to watch: Kiteishvili against Leipzig’s midfield duo of Seiwald and Haidara could determine control in the middle of the park.
Sturm Graz Suspensions & Injuries
Sturm Graz is dealing with several injuries that could impact their performance in the upcoming match. Here are the details:
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Borkovic | Cruciate ligament injury | Unknown |
| Martin Kern | Ankle injury | Unknown |
| Max Johnston | Muscle injury | A few weeks |
These absences will force coach Jürgen Säumel to adjust his defensive lineup and potentially shift strategies to cover for these key players.
Also, Fally Mayulu is serving a suspension:
| Player | Suspension | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Fally Mayulu | Suspension | One match remaining |
The suspension of Mayulu adds another layer of challenge as Sturm Graz faces a b RB Leipzig side.
Sturm Graz Tactics and Formation
Sturm Graz Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-4-2 With recent struggles and significant injuries impacting the team, Sturm Graz’s coach Jürgen Säumel will likely stick to a 4-4-2 formation.
- Key Players: Otar Kiteishvili (Midfield playmaker)
- Defensive Line:
- Right Back: Arjan Malic
- Centre Backs: Emanuel Aiwu and Gregory Wüthrich
- Left Back: Dimitri Lavalée Despite a lack of clean sheets in the last five games, Säumel will depend on this solid backline to maintain shape and defensive discipline, especially with the absence of Alexandar Borkovic due to injury and the suspension of Fally Mayulu.
- Midfield Setup:
- Wingers: Tochi Chukwuani and Malick Junior Yalcouye
- Central Duos: Jon Gorenc-Stankovic (Defensive Midfield) and Otar Kiteishvili (Attacking Playmaker) Kiteishvili, as the attacking midfielder, will be crucial for transitioning from defense to attack and creating opportunities for the forwards.
Forwards: William Böving and Amady Camara These two will spearhead the attack, looking to capitalize on any defensive lapses RB Leipzig may offer, especially late in the game, as Leipzig is known to concede goals in the 76-90 minute interval. Säumel will likely focus on a compact defensive posture while looking for quick counterattacks through his wingers and creative playmaker. This setup reflects a tactical approach designed to reinforce defensive solidity while exploiting opportunities on the break.
RB Leipzig Team Analysis
RB Leipzig has shown a mixed bag of results in their recent performances, reflected in their form of DWDLW in the last five matches. They have been productive in attack, averaging 2.40 goals scored per game. However, their defensive frailties are apparent, with no clean sheets in the last five matches.
| Home team | Away team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | Bayer Leverkusen | 2-2 (Draw) |
| RB Leipzig | Sporting CP | 2-1 (Win) |
| Bochum | RB Leipzig | 3-3 (Draw) |
| VfB Stuttgart | RB Leipzig | 2-1 (Loss) |
| RB Leipzig | Werder Bremen | 4-2 (Win) |
RB Leipzig has a knack for scoring, spearheaded by top scorer Benjamin Sesko with 4 goals so far. They have, however, been conceding an average of 1.9 goals per game, and late goals have been a recurring issue. Expect them to leverage their b attack to counter their defensive vulnerabilities.
RB Leipzig Key Players
RB Leipzig boasts several impactful players set to take the field in their expected lineup:
- Goalkeeper: Peter Gulacsi
- Defenders: Lutsharel Geertruida, Willi Orban, El Chadaille Bitshiabu, David Raum
- Midfielders: Christoph Baumgartner, Nicolas Seiwald, Amadou Haidara, Xavi Simons
- Attackers: Loïs Openda, Benjamin Sesko
Benjamin Sesko, their top scorer with 4 goals, leads the attack. His clash with Sturm Graz’s defenders, particularly Gregory Wüthrich, promises to be a crucial battleground.
Look out for Xavi Simons in the midfield. The talented playmaker’s duel with Jon Gorenc-Stankovic could dictate the game’s rhythm. Expect RB Leipzig to rely heavily on these key players to break down Sturm Graz’s resistance.
RB Leipzig Suspensions & Injuries
Injuries
| Player | Injury | Potential return |
|---|---|---|
| Assan Ouédraogo | Hamstring Injury | Mid April 2025 |
| Benjamin Henrichs | Achilles tendon injury | Out for the season |
| Xaver Schlager | Knee injury | About a week |
| Andre Silva | Calf Injury | Early February 2025 |
| Kevin Kampl | Calf Injury | Mid February 2025 |
Suspensions
| Player | Suspension | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Xaver Schlager | Other | 1 match |
| Ridle Baku | Other | 1 match |
RB Leipzig faces a challenging situation with several key players missing, either through injury or suspension. Benjamin Henrichs’ season-ending Achilles tendon injury and Assan Ouédraogo’s hamstring issue significantly weaken their defensive options. The suspensions of Xaver Schlager and Ridle Baku further complicate the squad depth, particularly in midfield. Marco Rose will have to rely heavily on his remaining players to maintain their competitive edge.
RB Leipzig Tactics and Formation
RB Leipzig Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 4-4-2
- Key Forwards: Loïs Openda and Benjamin Sesko
- Midfield Quartet: Christoph Baumgartner, Nicolas Seiwald, Amadou Haidara, and Xavi Simons
- Defensive Line: Lutsharel Geertruida, Willi Orban, El Chadaille Bitshiabu, and David Raum
- Goalkeeper: Peter Gulacsi
Marco Rose will deploy his team in a 4-4-2 formation, a shift from their recent 3-4-2-1 setup. This change is likely aimed at providing more stability and support for the forwards, particularly Loïs Openda and top scorer Benjamin Sesko. Midfield duties will be handled by a b quartet, with Xavi Simons expected to drive the team’s offensive play. With recent injuries and suspensions, the defense will need to be cohesive, relying heavily on experienced players like Willi Orban and Peter Gulacsi to hold the line.
