Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction - La Liga Fixtures

The La Liga title race remains a three-horse race and our expert Nathan Joyes has provided his Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Best Bet, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.

Real Madrid’s poor league form continued with a 2-1 loss against Betis last weekend, meaning they have picked up just five points from their last five matches. With this fixture sandwiched in between two Champions League ties against fierce rivals Atletico, Carlo Ancelotti will once again have to manage his squad carefully.

Rayo Vallecano head into this with mixed form, collecting seven points from a possible 15. And although the European chasing club have only conceded three goals within those matches, they’ve also only scored three themselves.

Still, can the visitors pick up a rare victory at the Bernabeu? Nathan investigates for us.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction: Asian line enticing for the visitors

Spain, La Liga, Sunday, March 9th, 15:15 (UK)

Real Madrid are balancing three tournaments – and it’s taking its toll. In the Champions League and Copa del Rey, they are progressing just fine at present as they hunt down more silverware, but domestically they are struggling to find their usual stride.

With just one win from their last five La Liga matches, that came against an underperforming Girona side, their rotations and crowded fixture list is catching up with them. Their defeat against Betis saw Carlo Ancelotti’s side slip to 3rd place – three points behind Barcelona – with 12 matches left to play. As previously pointed out within this column, Real Madrid have had it rough competing across all fronts. They played nine matches in less than 30 days, which just isn’t sustainable.

Whether Ancelotti chooses to rotate from the first whistle or later in the match is hard to define at this stage, but what can be guaranteed is that those changes will happen. The pressure and constant shift in players starting can’t be dismissed, and this is where Rayo Vallecano will hope to continue their European charge.

Real’s visitors haven’t lost by more than one goal on the road all season. In fact, Rayo Vallecano have only lost three of their 13 games on their travels, scoring just 10 but also conceding 10.

A difficult team to break down, Barcelona required a Robert Lewandowski penalty to bail them out in mid-Feb – Rayo’s last away match – where they were able to stay compact and frustrate their rivals.

It’s not a case of playing a completely defensive game, either. They had more corners and only one less shot on target (4) in that match. 

Of their seven La Liga matches in 2025, only one match has produced over 2.5 goals – a 2-1 win against Girona – where their two defeats, (Barcelona and Villarreal), have been by a single goal. Against Villarreal, who occupy 5th, Rayo had 10 men for over 60 minutes when the game was tied 0-0 before Jorge de Frutos’ red card.

Admittedly, there’s a huge gap in terms of points between 3rd and 7th – 18 to be precise – but Rayo Vallecano have proven to be defensively resilient all season long, and with one eye on their second leg against Atletico, Real might not have it all their own way on Sunday afternoon.

• Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction: Rayo Vallecano +1.75 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 1.840
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction odds via bet365 as at 15:00, March 4th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups

Jude Bellingham is suspended for Real Madrid’s first leg against Atletico Madrid, and the English international is therefore likely to feature in this La Liga clash. It will be interesting to see what changes Ancelotti chooses to make, who has often drafted in Brahim Diaz for these games that are sandwiched in between Champions League ties.

Rayo Vallecano will remain without Jorge de Frutos after his straight red against Villarreal. Other forwards Isi Palazon and Sergio Camello will also miss out due to ankle and foot injuries respectively.

Instead, 36-year-old Oscar Trejo will may well lead the line alongside Randy Nteka, depending on whether the visitors will revert back to a 4-2-3-1 in order to shut out the reigning champions.

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Mendy, Alaba, Asencio, Vazquez, Modric, Tchouameni, Rodrygo, Diaz, Vinicius Jr, Mbappe

Rayo Vallecano possible starting lineup:
Batalla; Chavarria, Mumin, Lejeune, Ratiu, Embarba, Diaz, Ciss, Garcia, Trejo, Nteka

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