Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction - Champions League
Real Madrid’s second home game in the Champions League welcomes the team they beat in last season’s final in Borussia Dortmund as Josh Ingram oversees a Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, team news, and lineups preview. Buckle up for the Champions League’s third round of fixtures.
Dortmund will want to get a positive result to exorcise demons from the devastating loss to the kings of Europe last season. For Real Madrid, it will be just another game and a good chance to right the wrongs of the embarrassing loss to Lille. It has all the makings to be an end-to-end cracker, with a helping of revenge.
- Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Tip 1: Borussia Dortmund over 11.5 shots
- Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Tip 2: Both teams to receive 2+ cards each
- Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Tip 3: Jude Bellingham anytime goalscorer
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction 1: Dortmund to have their chances
Spain, Premier League, Tuesday, October 22nd, 20:00 (UK)
Dortmund Manager Nuri Sahin has only been in charge since the start of the season, but his away form is already a problem. Sahin will look for any positives he can get in their tough fixture away at Real Madrid. The Turkish manager addressed away problems in the Bundesliga by saying, “It’s not that I want to run away from away games or anything, but it’s just a fact that we’ve only picked up one point from the three away games in the league – if you’re 16th in the away table, you’re not going to achieve your goals. You have to build on that.”
Dortmund will want to start showing they have what it takes away from home. This is a perfect opportunity to have a go at a side that broke their hearts at Wembley back on June 1st.
Even though they’ve only lost once in all competitions, which was last time out in the Champions League against Lille, Real Madrid can be exploited in defensive areas. They have struggled to contain sides this year. The loss of Kroos and the addition of Mbappe has seen the balance of the team shift despite the individual quality winning them lots of games.
In their opening fixture of this competition, Stuggart could consider themselves very unlucky with the scoreline. The Germans created 1.94xG while having 17 shots at goal. In general, Ancelloti’s side sees around 10.5 shots a game fired their way. Of the six teams to go to the Bernabeu, three have hit the over 11.5 line. Across those six games, the average is 11.6 shots per90
Dortmund, under Sahin, are far from goal-shy. Last year’s runners-up beat the keeper 28 times in all competitions this season. After putting seven past Celtic, this puts them top of the table in Champions League qualifying. They’re scoring at a reasonable rate, translating to their shot average, sitting at just under 14 a game. However, the only time they succeeded in the line set was away in Brugge, where they had 16 attempts. Having watched Real Madrid Champions League games, Dortmund is good enough to cause them
- Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction 1:Borussia Dortmund over 11.5 shots (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Stake: 7.5/10
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction 2: Tempers to flare between last year’s finalists
Istan Kovacs is on the whistle for this clash. The Romanian is yet to be card-happy in his first ten games. He is currently sitting at an average cards per game of 3.2. On the face of it, this season, you’d be mistaken for thinking that he isn’t a card-orientated official. However, last year, across the 33 games he oversaw, he averaged a 6.48 card average, which is a considerable average across a more significant sample size. When a game gets heated, he can lose control. This happened in charge of the Czech Republic vs Turkey game in the most recent Euros. In total, 14 players were booked on the pitch and five on the sidelines or cautioned after the game.
Disciplinary issues haven’t been a big issue for Real Madrid in league football, but the Champions League has presented a different issue. Across the La Liga games, they average 1.7 cards per game, and two cards each has only occurred in one Los Blancos league fixture. However, these numbers jump up massively when looking at the two Champions League games. In their first outing against Stuttgart, they acquired four yellows, and in their second, five cards, with both teams receiving two or more cards each, only landing versus Lille.
Dortmund haven’t been as card-happy as Real has in the Champions League, but it was the same as their Spanish opponents last time out against Celtic; both sides received two cautions. In the direct opposite of Real Madrid, their card averages in the league have been high, at around 2.7 cards per game. Both sides have, in all competitions, been committing around ten fouls a game. Due to the nature of some of their players like Mbappe and Vinicius, Real Madrid has been drawing more fouls as a side, with 12.6 fouls drawn.
- Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction 2: Both teams to receive 2+ cards each(TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Stake: 7.5/10
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction 3: Bellingham to open his account
Jude Bellingham couldn’t stop scoring in his first year at Real Madrid. It felt like he was finding the net every week with a late winner. With Los Blancos signing Mbappe this year, Jude’s heroics haven’t been called upon as often. The Englishman isn’t required to play as high as last season; at times, he was a false nine. Due to the slight change in what’s asked of him, he is way off his output after the same amount of games. After eight fixtures last season, he had netted six times, and yet now he’s failed to score.
It would be fitting for him to open his account against his former side, which he helped beat in the Champions League final last campaign. Dortmund could be the perfect team for Bellingham to score against, as they struggle to limit the opposition in creating chances. Real Madrid will have plenty of opportunities to get a shot away and trouble the keeper. In their opening ten games in all competitions, Dortmund has only three clean sheets. While they’ve conceded 14 goals across that time, their struggle in away games is apparent. They have been fallible.
Jude Bellingham has not been shooting with the same regularity this season in La Liga. He only pulls the trigger 1.53 times per 90 compared to 2.41 last season. In all competitions, the all-action midfielder has a cumulative 0.90xG, so it’s not like he is underperforming in front of goal. He’s just having fewer clear-cut chances than he once did.
The England man will be well up for this fixture, and with the defeat last time out, they will want to respond as the holders. It would be perfect for Jude Bellingham to put his stamp on this game. He showed in England’s defeat to Greece that he knows where the net is when he gets half a chance with his well-executed finish.
- Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction 3: Jude Bellingham anytime goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 4.00
- Bookmaker: Skybet
- Stake: 5/10
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, October 21st, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups: Hattrick hero injured and Madrid near full strength
Real Madrid only have three injuries to contend with. One is the recent season-long injury Dani Carvajal picked up; Lucas Vazquez will be the starting right back in the foreseeable future. There will likely be two changes to the starting lineup, with Ferland Mendy coming in at left-back for Fran Garcia and Rodrgygo coming in for Camavinga.
Last time out, Adeyemi scored a hat-trick against the Celtics. Unfortunately, the German forward sustained a rather nasty hamstring injury just at the start of the second half and will be out of action for another five weeks. In addition to this, Niklas Sule and Pascal Gross are doubts, with the latter being substituted at halftime in their win against St Pauli.
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Vazquez, Militao, Rudiger, Mendy; Bellingham, Tchouameni, Valverde; Rodrygo, Mbappe, Vinicius Jr
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Ryerson, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Can, Sabitzer; Malen, Brandt, Gittens; Guirassy
Match OPTA Stats: Real Madrid dominate the recent head to head.
- This game will see Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund meet for the first time since last season’s UEFA Champions League final, won 2-0 by the Madrid side at Wembley.
- Borussia Dortmund have never won in seven away UEFA Champions League matches at Real Madrid (D2 L5), with their most recent visit a 3-2 defeat in December 2017.
- No side has ever played more away UEFA Champions League matches at one stadium without winning than Borussia Dortmund at the Santiago Bernabéu (P7 D2 L5), with Chelsea also playing seven times without success at Barcelona’s Spotify Camp Nou.
- Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti has alternated between a win (4) and defeat (3) in seven UEFA Champions League meetings with Borussia Dortmund, winning the most recent game in last season’s final. His four wins against them have all come in different decades – 1997 with Parma, 2002 with Milan and 2014 and 2024 with Real Madrid.
- Real Madrid were beaten by Lille last time out in the UEFA Champions League (0-1), ending a 14-game unbeaten run in the competition (W10 D4). In games played in the group/league stage, they haven’t suffered consecutive Champions League defeats since the period between December 2018 and September 2019 (0- 3 v CSKA Moscow and Paris SG).
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