Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction - Champions League
With Leverkusen trailing 3-0 from the first leg, the mountain they face is undeniably steep.
While overturning such a deficit might seem daunting, the recent history of the Champions League reminds us that astonishing comebacks are possible
Ahead of their fifth meeting of this season, our European football expert Daniele Fisichella has prepared his Bayer Levekusen vs Bayern Munich match preview.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Normal Order To Be Restored
Champions League, Round of 16, Second leg, Tuesday, March 11th, 20:00 (UK)
Leverkusen’s prospects appear slim against Vincent Kompany’s side.
BETSiE projected goals total for the Round of 16 second leg is set high, with an average of 2.98 goals per game.
Although this suggests the potential for fireworks, a game with less than three goals would result in elimination for Die Werkself.
Despite being the German Bundesliga’s reigning league-and-cup double winners, Xavi Alonson’s men have struggled defensively this season, conceding 44 goals, surpassing last season’s total already.
Their home form in the Champions League, however, offers a glimmer of hope.
Leverkusen have been defensively solid at the BayArena, not conceding a single goal in their four matches. Yet, their 2.25 goals per game average at home falls short of the requirements for an historic reversal against Bayern, the competition’s most prolific side with an average xG of 2.5 per match.
Bayern’s first-leg victory at the Allianz Arena showcased their offensive superiority, with an early Harry Kane goal setting the tone. Leverkusen’s attempts at sustained pressing were stifled, and they failed to register a touch in the opponent’s box in the second half.
Significantly, Florian Wirtz’s injury adds to Alonso’s woes. Having been forced off during last Saturday’s defeat to Weder Bremen (the first loss in 22 Bundesliga games) Leverkusen’s reliance on his playmaking abilities could tip the tactical scales in Bayern’s favor.
Bayern Munich’s odds of winning this season’s Champions League shortened from 9.00 to 6.50 after their commanding first-leg display.
While they have struggled against Leverkusen in recent encounters, their offensive firepower and tactical adjustments under Kompany position them well for progression into the quarter-finals.
Yet memories of famous comebacks in Champions League history—like Barcelona’s unforgettable Remuntada against PSG or Liverpool’s Anfield heroics against the Catalans—lends a whisper of the impossible being within reach for the German Champions.
Our in-house model assigns Bayern Munich a 39.9% chance of winning the match, closely aligning with the current odds of 2.50 (40% implied probability), compared to Leverkusen’s victory odds at 2.70, implying a probability of 37%, which is 1.7% higher than BETSiE’s assessment of Alonso’s men.
Therefore, backing the visitors with a 0 Asian Handicap represents a marginal value bet in this case.
- Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction: Bayern Munich Asian Handicap 0 (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.86
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:30, March 10th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern Munich Team News: German champions without their key player
Leverkusen have confirmed that Florian Wirtz will be out of action for several weeks following an injury sustained last Saturday.
Without their star man, who has contributed 15 goals and 15 assists this season, Alonso might deploy Amine Adli alongside Nathan Tella and Patrick Shick in attack.
With Mukiele suspended and Belocian out for the season, Edmond Tapsoba, Piero Hincapié, and Jonathan Tah may form a back three.
In midfield, Robert Andrich’s illness poses further selection dilemmas. If the German international is unavailable, Exequiel Palacios could partner Granit Xhaka.
Jonas Urbig will continue in goal for Bayern Munich, with Manuel Neuer still sidelined due to a calf injury. Aleksandar Pavlovic is also expected to miss the game because of an infection.
Joshua Kimmich will play alongside Leon Goretzka in a double pivot.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hrádecký; Tapsoba, Tah, Hincapié; Frimpong, Palacios, Xhaka, Grimaldo; Tella, Schick.
Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Urbig; Laimer, Upamecano, Kim, Davies; Goretzka, Kimmich; Olise, Musiala, Coman; Kane.
Match OPTA Stats
- Bayer Leverkusen will be aiming to become just the fifth side in Champions League history to lose the first leg of a knockout stage tie by 3+ goals and still progress, after Deportivo de La Coruña in 2003-04 (v Milan, quarter-finals), Barcelona in 2016-17 (v Paris SG, last 16), Roma in 2017-18 (vBarcelona, quarter-finals) and Liverpool in 2018-19 (v Barcelona, semi-finals).
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in their three home games against Bayern Munich under Xabi Alonso, winning two of them (D1). Prior to Alonso’s arrival, they only won one of their previous eight home matches against Bayern (D2 L5), between 2015-16 and 2021-22.
- Bayern Munich are looking to qualify for the quarter-finals of the European Cup/Champions League for the 35th time, with only Real Madrid having done so on more occasions (39, prior to their second leg against Atlético).
- Florian Wirtz has created 25 chances from open play in the UEFA Champions League this season. Only one player on record (since 2003-04) has created more in a single campaign while aged 21 or younger: VinÃcius Júnior in 2021-22 (31).
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