Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Prediction - Champions League

Following the first leg, four teams have emerged as clear favourites to progress to the Champions League semi-finals. According to BETSiE, the winners of the opening ties each boast better than an 81% chance of advancing. 

Leading the charge are the Catalans, with a commanding 99.6% probability after their emphatic 4-0 win last week. Our European football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has provided a preview of Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona. 

Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Prediction: More of the same from Barça

Champions League, Quarter-finals, second leg, Wednesday 16 April, 20:00 (UK)

In the history of the competition, only one team has overturned a 4-0 deficit after the first leg, a memorable feat achieved by Barcelona with Messi, Neymar, and Suarez against PSG in the 2016/17 season. This suggests Dortmund are unlikely to overturn their 4-0 loss in Catalonia on Wednesday. The Blaugrana are considered arguably the best team in Europe, showing no mercy to their opponents. Conceding four goals to the likes of Raphinha and Lewandowski is not uncommon; indeed, Barça have scored four or more goals in 20 matches across all competitions this season.

While Borussia Dortmund have shown improvement recently (only three defeats in the past 11 games) the absence of centre-back Nico Schlotterbeck led manager Niko Kovač to doubt their ability to keep a clean sheet against Europe’s top attack. This resulted in a tactical shift from a back three to a back four as they tried to chase the game after conceding an early goal. Consequently, Dortmund’s defence appeared exposed, conceding 18 shots and 3.67 xG, as Barcelona netted four goals in a Champions League knockout tie for the first time since their 4-1 victory over Roma in the 2017/18 quarter-finals. This remarkable performance has propelled Hansi Flick’s side to bookmakers’ favourites for winning the competition, with odds of 3.00.

Despite Borussia Dortmund losing only once (2-1 vs Manchester City in 2020/21) from their last nine home Champions League knockout ties (5W, 2D), they have never overcome a first-leg deficit larger than two goals in Europe. Over the weekend, Die Schwarzgelben fought to a 2-2 draw in ‘Der Klassiker’ against Bayern Munich, in a thrilling match where both sides had significant chances, ultimately resulting in a fair draw. Dortmund, without a shot on target in the first half, silenced the home crowd three minutes after the restart when Maximilian Beier was left unmarked at the far post to head in the opener. 

Kobel’s heroics might not be enough

Ultimately, Nico Kovač’s side rescued a point thanks to the stellar performance of their goalkeeper, Gregor Kobel, who made nine saves, eight of which were from inside the box. Affording the same number of chances to Barcelona on Wednesday, the team with the best conversion rate in the Champions League (15.6%) could see the Germans succumb to a third defeat of the season to the Catalans. 

Barcelona struggled to beat Leganes away (1-0), in a lacklustre match with few noteworthy moments from the Blaugrana. Flick was conservative with rotations and the lack of fresh legs resulted in a flat performance, only resolved by an own goal.

But, with a projected goals tally of 3.44, it’s improbable Dortmund will outscore Barça on Tuesday. Therefore, backing the visitors to win, even though the average odds for a Barcelona victory (1.82) are lower than when Barça won 3-2 at Westfalenstadion during the group stage (1.98), appears a sound decision.

BETSiE Projections		HGF	AGF	GD	GT	Home Win %	Draw %	Away Win %
Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona		1.39	2.05	-0.66	3.44	25.9%	21.3%	52.7%

• Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Prediction: Barcelona Asian Handicap -0.5
• Best Odds: 1.86
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 9/10 (TRACKED BET)

Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Prediction odds via bet365 as at 06:45, April 14th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Borussia Dortmund vs Barcelona Team News: Back to basics for Kovač

Despite experimenting with a three-man defence in the first leg, Kovač may revert to a 4-2-3-1 formation to chase goals. Borussia Dortmund will welcome back Pascal Gross from suspension as he resumes his midfield role after featuring in ‘Der Klassiker’. Marcel Sabitzer and Nico Schlotterbeck remain sidelined due to knee injuries. 

For the visitors, left-back Alejandro Balde is out with a hamstring injury, and Gerard Martin is set to replace him. Dani Olmo, Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Marc Casado, and Marc Bernal also remain injured, while Fermin Lopez could start over Gavi.

Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Ryerson, Can, Anton, Bensebaini; Gross, Nmecha; Gittens, Brandt, Adeyemi; Guirassy.

Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Szczesny; Kounde, Araujo, Cubarsi, Martin; Pedri, De Jong; Yamal, Lopez, Raphinha; Lewandowski.

Match Stats: An historic success looming?

• Borussia Dortmund have never beaten Barcelona in European competition (P6 D2 L4). If they fail to win here, it will be their joint-longest winless run against an opponent in Europe, along with a seven-game streak against Rangers between 1966 and 1999.
• Among teams to play 10+ games in a European Cup/Champions League campaign, Barcelona’s goals per game ratio in 2024-25 is the second-best by a team in a single edition (3.3).
• Barcelona had not scored four goals in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie since their 4-1 win over Roma in the 2017/18 quarter-finals. The Blaugrana lost the return match 3-0 and were knocked out due to the away goals rule.
• Raphinha scored his 12th goal of the Champions League season in the first leg against Borussia Dortmund. Only four of the last 10 top scorers by season in the Champions League surpassed that tally. 

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.