Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Prediction

The Brasileirão is reaching the final rounds of the 2024 season, and South American expert Nathan Joyes provides his Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.

Sao Paulo are looking to secure a Copa Libertadores spot, while Athletico PR are battling to stay in the league and are currently occupying the final relegation place.

The hosts have won their last two home matches scoring six goals, while Athletico PR head into this fixture having lost seven of their last eight away games, and are winless since August.

• Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Tip 1: Sao Paulo to win
• Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Tip 2: Lucas Moura to score anytime
• Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Tip 3: Sao Paulo HT/FT

Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Prediction 1: Hosts to secure top six spot

Brazil, Brazil Serie A, Sunday, November 10th, 00:00 (UK)

Sao Paulo’s ambition at the start of the season would have been to achieve a Copa Libertadores spot, and Luis Zubeldia’s side are on track to achieve that. 

This has been largely down to their home form, and although a couple of defeats against Internacional and Atletico Mineiro sneaked in, they’ve managed to get back on track beating Corinthians and Vasco.

With the second best home record in the league, joint with title contenders Palmeiras, not many are able to leave Morumbi with points in their back pockets. And so this isn’t the easiest destination for Athletico PR, who have picked up just three points from their last 15.

The absence of Fernandinho has killed them, and after Agustin Canobbio hobbled off against Corinthians, they lost their best attacking player. Their only win of late came at home against Cruzeiro who had a player sent off after three seconds. 

If Sao Paulo turn up and play their usual A game, they can take a giant step towards securing a top six spot. It’s difficult to see how Athletico PR can pick up any points – especially considering they’ve conceded 11 from their last five on the road.

• Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Prediction 1: Sao Paulo to win (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Prediction 2: Bank on the captain

One man who is carrying his team into those all important Libertadores spots is ex-Spurs midfielder Lucas Moura. The 32-year-old has scored eight league goals in 22 appearances, including a brace last time out at home against Vasco.

In Zubeldia’s preferred 4-3-3 system, Moura has a free licence to roam on either flank or move into a more central role. Able to find space between the opponent’s defence and midfield, the Brazilian isn’t shy when it comes to striking the ball from outside the box, which is where he’s had plenty of success this season.

His first against Vasco the other week saw him carry the ball from well inside his own area, covering over 60m on his own before trusting his left foot to do the rest. There was a teammate available to him, but in his current form, he wasn’t going to trust anyone but himself. His second was a bullet header from a corner – confidence oozing through him at this moment in time.

With three goals to his name from Sao Paulo’s last two registered home games, Moura has stepped up when it counts and is clearly the man the supporters can count on to deliver.

• Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Prediction 2: Lucas Moura to score anytime
• Best Odds: 4.
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Prediction 3: Fast start anticipated

Sao Paulo have started extremely quickly in their last two home wins and have been leading at the break. In fact, Zubeldia’s side have been ahead at half-time in their last five victories at home.

Their pitch is one of the narrowest in the league, but it clearly suits them and their 60,000 seat stadium is full every other week, making one of the best atmospheres in Brazil. Athletico PR struggle against teams who are quick out of the blocks more often than not, which is why they are in a troubling position.

The sheer number of goals they have been conceding on the road is worrying, and against a team who thrive on their own patch, there only appears to be one outcome. Even in the reverse fixture, Sao Paulo led with a first half goal, only for Fernandinho to temporarily draw level. We’ve already pointed out that he won’t be there.

With a lack of authority and leadership from the players available, this should be a routine win for the hosts, who can have the game sewn up by half-time.

• Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Prediction 3: Sao Paulo HT/FT
• Best Odds: 4.
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Prediction odds via bet365 as at 20:00, November 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Sao Paulo vs Athletico PR Injuries, Team News and Possible Lineups: More magic from Moura

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Welington, Franco, Arbolea, Rafinha, Moura, Wellington Rato, Gustavo, Bobadilla, Calleri, Luciano

Athletico PR possible starting lineup:
Mycael; Belezi, Heleno, Rocha, Fernando, Felipinho, Erick, Madson, Nikao, Cuello, Pablo

Match Stats

• Sao Paulo won the reverse leg 2-1 back in June.
• Lucas Moura has scored three goals in his last two Serie A matches.
• Athletico PR have lost their last four away games in Serie A.

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