Atalanta vs Sturm Graz Prediction - Champions League Fixtures
On the 21st of January 2025, Atalanta will host Sturm Graz at Gewiss Stadium in what is shaping up to be a pivotal Champions League clash. Kicking off at 17:45, this match promises to be a test of endurance and strategy, especially with chilly weather conditions forecasted—clear skies and a brisk 1°C temperature.
Atalanta, currently listed as the bookmaker’s favourite, sits 13th in the standings with 11 points. Their recent form has been shaky, with a mix of draws and narrow losses indicating some vulnerability. Missing key players like Erdis Kraja and Gianluca Scamacca, their defense will be tested, yet they remain better contenders. The team’s top scorer, Ademola Lookman, will be pivotal with 3 goals to his name.
Sturm Graz, on the other hand, are 29th with merely 3 points. Their form hasn’t been much better, with recent losses overshadowing any victories. Their top scorer Mika Biereth has scored twice, but their defense has been leaky, conceding 1.7 goals on average in this competition.
Given the form and squad issues, the recommended bet is for Atalanta to lead by -1.50 in the first half (Asian Handicap), reflecting their ber position.
Atalanta vs Sturm Graz Prediction & Betting Tip
Recommending Atalanta to lead with a -1.50 advantage in the first half (Asian Handicap) is sensible given their ber recent form and home advantage. With Atalanta averaging only 0.7 goals conceded in the Champions League and Sturm Graz struggling defensively, this tip is grounded in logic.
| Atalanta vs. Sturm Graz Prediction | |
|---|---|
| Betting Tip | Odds |
| Atalanta -1.50 in the 1st half | 3.3 |
- Atalanta is the ber team, having performed better in the last six matches.
- Sturm Graz has conceded an average of 1.7 goals in this competition, indicating defensive weaknesses.
- Atalanta’s top scorers have been more productive, and they have also maintained relatively solid defensive performances.
Atalanta vs Sturm Graz Odds
With Atalanta coming in as the bookmaker’s favorite, their odds of winning reflect high confidence in their ability to secure a victory against Sturm Graz. Given Atalanta’s solid form in recent matches and Sturm Graz’s defensive vulnerabilities, bettors may find value in these odds.
| Atalanta vs. Sturm Graz Betting Odds | |
|---|---|
| Bet | Odds |
| Atalanta | 1.19 |
| Draw | 7.17 |
| Sturm Graz | 13.78 |
These odds suggest that a win for Atalanta is highly likely, whereas a victory for Sturm Graz is considered a long shot. Additionally, a draw is also seen as unlikely, fitting with the current form and standings of both teams.
Atalanta Team Analysis
Atalanta’s recent performances have shown a mix of results, with one loss, three draws, and one win. Here’s a closer look at their last five matches:
| Home team | Away team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | SSC Napoli | 2-3 (Loss) |
| Atalanta | Juventus | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Udinese | Atalanta | 0-0 (Draw) |
| Inter | Atalanta | 2-0 (Loss) |
| Lazio | Atalanta | 1-1 (Draw) |
Despite these mixed results, Atalanta has shown some defensive resolve, managing one clean sheet in their last five matches. However, scoring has been a challenge, with an average of just 0.80 goals per game. Their defense has been punctured, conceding 3 goals against Napoli and 2 against Inter, indicating that more cohesion is needed at the back. Overall, Atalanta’s form can be described as inconsistent, but with potential for improvement, especially on their home ground at Gewiss Stadium.
Atalanta Key Players
Atalanta’s lineup features crucial figures who could make or break the match against Sturm Graz. Ademola Lookman, their top scorer with three goals, will be a key player to watch. His ability to break down defenses with his speed and precision is essential for Atalanta to secure a win.
Another important player for Atalanta is the experienced midfielder Marten de Roon, known for his defensive capabilities and distribution in the midfield. Look for de Roon to anchor the team and distribute the ball effectively.
Given that Charles De Ketelaere is the top scorer for Atalanta in the Champions League this season, with three goals, his presence on the pitch is likely to be influential.
Expected lineup for Atalanta:
- Goalkeeper: Marco Carnesecchi
- Defenders: Berat Djimsiti, Isak Hien, Giorgio Scalvini, Raoul Bellanova, Matteo Ruggeri
- Midfielders: Marten de Roon, Ederson, Lazar Samardzic
- Forwards: Mateo Retegui, Ademola Lookman
Key battles to watch will include Lookman against Sturm Graz’s defenders and de Roon in the midfield, controlling the tempo and breaking up opposition play.
Atalanta Suspensions & Injuries
Atalanta faces a number of injuries heading into their Champions League clash with Sturm Graz, which could significantly affect their performance.
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Erdis Kraja | Cruciate ligament injury | A few days |
| Gianluca Scamacca | Cruciate ligament injury | Early March 2025 |
| Juan Cuadrado | Thigh injury | Late January 2025 |
| Odilon Kossounou | Hamstring injury | Mid February 2025 |
| Mateo Retegui | Thigh injury | Early February 2025 |
| Berat Djimsiti | Head injury | Late January 2025 |
These injuries, particularly in crucial positions, mean that coach Gian Piero Gasperini needs to rely on squad depth and perhaps call upon less experienced players. Key absences like Scamacca, Kossounou, and Retegui might hinder their attacking and defensive capabilities.
Atalanta Tactics and Formation
Atalanta Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: 3-4-1-2
- Key Forward: Ademola Lookman
- Midfield Structure: Marten de Roon, Ederson in central roles
- Defensive Setup: Isak Hien, Giorgio Scalvini, and Berat Djimsiti (if fit)
- Notable Strategy: High pressing and quick transitions
Atalanta’s 3-4-1-2 formation emphasizes a solid defensive base with three centre-backs. The wing-backs, Raoul Bellanova and Matteo Ruggeri, provide width and support for both the defense and attack. Marten de Roon and Ederson hold the central midfield, allowing Lazar Samardzic to operate as an attacking midfielder behind the strikers, Mateo Retegui (potentially replaced due to injury) and Ademola Lookman. Lookman’s pace and scoring ability make him the primary threat upfront. Despite several injuries, Atalanta’s tactical versatility enables them to adapt and mount a better offense against Sturm Graz.
Sturm Graz Team Analysis
Sturm Graz have been struggling recently, with their form in the last five matches showing 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their inability to keep clean sheets and defensive weaknesses have been evident, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per match in this season’s Champions League. Despite this, they have managed to score an average of 1 goal per game in their last five outings.
| Home team | Away team | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | Rijeka | 0-2 (Loss) |
| Sturm Graz | HNK Orijent 1919 | 1-1 (Draw) |
| Grasshopper Club | Sturm Graz | 1-0 (Loss) |
| Sturm Graz | FC Lugano | 2-1 (Win) |
| Lille | Sturm Graz | 3-2 (Loss) |
Sturm Graz’s top scorer, Mika Biereth, has netted 2 goals in the tournament, but the team has yet to find consistent form to elevate their performance.
Sturm Graz Key Players
Sturm Graz will be relying heavily on their top scorer, Mika Biereth, who has netted 2 goals in the Champions League this season. With Biereth leading the attack, their forward line will be key to breaking down Atalanta’s defense.
Expected lineup for Sturm Graz:
- Goalkeeper: No data
- Defenders: No data
- Midfielders: No data
- Attackers: No data
Without detailed information on other players and their formation, it’s clear Biereth will be the pivotal figure in any offensive efforts. Individual battles to watch include Biereth against Atalanta’s center-back Giorgio Scalvini, who will look to neutralize Sturm Graz’s main goal threat.
Injuries
| Player | Injury | Expected return |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Borkovic | Cruciate ligament injury | Unknown |
| Martin Kern | Ankle injury | Unknown |
These injuries could heavily impact Sturm Graz, particularly in their defensive line, with key players like Alexandar Borkovic and Martin Kern sidelined. This puts additional pressure on their existing squad to step up against Atalanta. The lack of depth in the squad may limit their tactical options and hinder their ability to adapt during the match.
Sturm Graz Tactics and Formation
Sturm Graz Tactical Breakdown:
- Formation: The last known formation was a 4-1-2-1-2.
- Key Forward: Mika Biereth, top scorer with 2 goals in this tournament. Given their injury-stricken squad, expect limited tactical fluidity. Sturm Graz’s defense has struggled, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per match. To compensate, their key defensive players will need to up their game to keep Atalanta at bay. They may opt for a more conservative and counter-attacking strategy, focusing on quick transitions to exploit any spaces left by Atalanta. Additionally, Sturm Graz may rely on set pieces and long balls to maximize Biereth’s goal-scoring prowess.
