Atalanta v Paris Saint-Germain Betting Tips & Predictions - bettingexpert
Atalanta v Paris Saint-Germain Prediction
It’s the first of four UEFA Champions League quarter-finals in this new-look edition of the tournament. Atalanta take on Paris Saint-Germain in Portugal in what promises to be a fascinating match. It’s the first time the Italian side have reached this stage of the competition while PSG haven’t reached the semi-finals for over 25 years.
Atalanta v Paris Saint-Germain Recent Form
Atalanta ended their season with a defeat but that was an outlier on what was a hugely impressive run of matches. They won 14 and drew three of their 17 matches before that loss to Inter Milan. PSG, meanwhile, have had an impressive run of results in their friendly matches to prepare for this one. Five consecutive wins and not a single goal conceded.
Atalanta v Paris Saint-Germain Recent Matchups
This will be the first time these two sides have ever met in a UEFA competition and just the third time that Atalanta have faced French opposition. PSG are far more accustomed to facing off against Italian sides with 15 previous fixtures to their name. Interestingly, PSG have drawn each of their last six matches against sides from Italy.
Atalanta v Paris Saint-Germain Stats & Analysis
Goals are almost a guarantee when Atalanta are playing. Of the teams still left in the tournament, only Bayern Munich have a higher average total match goals per game than the Italian side. Atalanta’s Champions League matches have had an average of 4.00 total match goals whereas PSG are a little further down that list at 3.00 on average. A whopping 38% of their matches in the competition have finished with 4.5+ total goals compared to the Champions League average of 20%. The same can be observed in their Serie A stats. As much as 11% of their matches finished with 6.5+ goals compared to the league average of 3.4%.
But the same can be said of Paris Saint-Germain in their own league. Their average total match goals per game figure was 3.67, well clear of Monaco in second place with 3.14. This is nothing new for the Ligue 1 side. They’ve failed to score in just one match in the last 27 months.
But PSG’s defensive stats really stand out. As previously mentioned, they’ve kept five consecutive clean sheets in the friendly matches they played to prepare for this match, and that is part of a longer trend. No side has kept more clean sheets in the Champions League than Thomas Tuchel’s team this campaign. They’ve kept six from eight and only conceded against Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Atalanta have kept just two clean sheets from their eight matches.
Atalanta v Paris Saint-Germain Bets
The bookies think that the difference in defensive quality will make a difference here. Paris Saint-Germain are the slight favourites to win the match at 5/4. But Atalanta aren’t that far behind in the odds at 2/1 to secure the win. You’ll get odds of 3/1 for PSG to continue their run of stalemates against Italian opponents and for this match to end all square in a draw.
As previously mentioned, goals are expected in this match. Atalanta have the second-highest rate of total match goals of the sides left in the competition and PSG aren’t too far behind. Their respective averages of 4.00 and 3.00 suggest that over 2.5 total match goals is a decent bet at 4/7. Over 3.5 7/5 and over 4.5 is a tempting 7/2 considering 37% of Atalanta’s Serie A matches this season surpassed that tally.
In terms of goalscorers, there are some standout names for both clubs. Neymar has scored at least once in 15 of his last 19 matches for PSG and is a tempting 6/4 to score at any time in this match. But Mauro Icardi is a standout pick for PSG. The Argentinean forward must love the Champions League as 25% of his goals for the Parisians have been in the competition. He’s 7/5 to score at any time. At the other end of the pitch, Atalanta have their own lethal forward in Josip Ilicic but the Slovenian is expected to miss the match. The burden will fall on Duvan Zapata who is 1/1 to score at any time.
