Barcelona vs Atalanta Prediction - Champions League
Josh Ingram is on hand to oversee a Barcelona vs Atalanta prediction preview at the Estadi Olimpic Lluis Companys, with Atalanta arriving on the hunt to secure top-eight qualification in the Champions League.
Barcelona has avoided the extra two legs that securing top-eight qualifications brings, but their opponents will be coming to Spain needing a win to do the same. Both sides have been potent in front of goal this season, especially in this competition, scoring 44 goals. So, it has the potential for the scoreline to get out of hand if both go for it, as they have done in the previous seven rounds of this illustrious competition.
Barcelona vs Atalanta Prediction: Atalanta to notch a couple
Spain, Champions League, Wednesday, January 29th, 20:00 (UK)
The final game of the new extended version of the Champions League league phase is here. The clash between these two sides should be an interesting battle. Atalanta needs to win to secure top-eight qualification, whilst Barca has qualified securely in the top eight. Yet, the Spaniards do have a chance to get first if Liverpool falters. Meanwhile, Hansi Flick will be aware that they will likely need at least a point if they want to stay in the top two. Due to the number of sides just one point behind Atalanta, they’ll also know they can’t afford a draw, with BETSiE giving them a 26.9% chance of clinching a top-eight spot.
Goals appealed instantly here, but with the price of BTTS being 1.44, it wasn’t backable. The significance of the game for Atalanta means it would be strange for them to sit off if they went 1-0 up, and it’s just not how they typically operate. So, with that in mind, Atalanta, to find the net twice looked enticing. For La Dea, scoring 2+ goals in a game is a regular occurrence. Gian Piero Gasperini’s system lends itself to goals, evident with 2+ landing in 21/32 in all competitions this season. Atalanta in Europe have scored two in 5/7 of their games, with two 0-0s against Celtic and Arsenal being the two outliers. Across the seven games, they boast an impressive 18 goals, positioning them as the third-highest scorers in the competition, with their opponents leading the way with 26. The 2.57 goals scored average per90 in the Champions League would be more than enough to cover this selection.
Barcelona may be second in the table with 18 points and just one loss, but they concede many chances, especially in this competition under Hansi Flick. Against Benfica, the Portuguese side created six big chances and scored four times, and Dortmund created five big chances and netted twice. In 4/7 Champions League games, they have leaked two or more goals and only kept clean sheets against minnows Young Boys and Brest. This youthful Barca side doesn’t have the defensive nous to keep the better sides at bay.
The Italians’ intensity should be present from minute one, with what’s on the line. Their xG numbers have been high, averaging 1.67 xG across 22 Serie A games, but in Europe, that number jumps up to 2.72 xG per 90 average, with the only game under 2.00 coming in the 0-0 draw against Arsenal.
Individually, they have the talent that can hurt Barcelona. Mateo Retegui is La Dea’s biggest goal threat and has been in fine form across all competitions this season. The striker’s numbers speak for themselves: 29 games, scoring 22 times. Alongside the Italian, Ademola Lookman has carried his high-level performances from the last campaign into this one. From the 27 matches he has featured, the Nigerian goal-getter has scored 14 times while assisting his teammates six times.
- Barcelona vs Atalanta Prediction: Atalanta Over 1.5 goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.25
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10 (TRACKED BET)
Barcelona vs Atalanta Prediction odds via bet365 as at 12:00, January 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Barcelona vs Atalanta Team News: Both squads almost at full strength
A total of four players are missing from Hansi Flick’s squad, two of which have been sidelined for a long time. Marc Benal tore his cruciate ligament at the start of the campaign, and Marc-Andre Ter Stegen ruptured his patella tendon in September. The two most recent injuries will be a miss, with Inigo Martinez’s hamstring injury sidelining him until mid-February. The big one is the right calf strain for Dani Olmo, who was impressed in his first season with Barca.
Gasperini is lucky at the moment, only missing two first-team players. One has been absent since August when Gianluca Scamacca tore his cruciate ligament. A more recent player who got a nasty injury was Odlion Kossounou, who is out due to an abductor injury and won’t be back until April. Captain and Key defensive midfielder Marten de Roon might not be able to play due to a head injury he picked up against Como at the weekend. The Italian side will no doubt be playing the manager-favoured fluid 3-4-1-2 formation that has brought him and Atalanta so much joy in recent years, none more so than what they achieved in the Europa League last season.
Barcelona possible starting lineup:
Szczęsny; Kounde, Araujo, Cubarsi, Balde; Casado, Pedri; Yamal, Gavi, Raphinha; Lewandowski
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Djimsiti, Hien, Scalvini; Bellanva, Pasalic, Ederson, Zappacosts; De Ketelaere, Lookman, Retegui
Match Stats: Undefeated records for both
- Barcelona at home in this competition have been impeccable, winning all three, scoring 12 and conceding just one. While Atlanta, on the road in the Champions League, has also won all three while scoring 11 and conceding just one.
- Barcelona games have featured a large number of penalties. They have been awarded three and scored all of them while giving away two penalties, both slotted home.
- Atalanta leads the competition with the most successful crosses per game, with 7.4.
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