Tagir Ulanbekov da pobedi (1x2)
This matchup between Tagir Ulanbekov and Clayton Carpenter is a classic case of experience versus potential, with Ulanbekov coming in as the strong favorite. However, the line may not fully account for the potential danger Carpenter poses in certain aspects of the fight. Clayton Carpenter is an intriguing young prospect with a striking background in Muay Thai and kickboxing. Despite a 10 cm reach disadvantage, he has the tools to hold an advantage in striking exchanges against Ulanbekov. Carpenter’s striking is sharp, his submissions are solid, and he mixes his attacks well with takedowns, showing a well-rounded skill set. If Tim Elliott could drop Ulanbekov in their fight, it’s not unreasonable to believe Carpenter could find success on the feet as well. That said, it might still be a bit early in Carpenter’s career to be facing an experienced opponent like Ulanbekov.
Ulanbekov, on the other hand, is a well-known grinder with a control-heavy approach. His path to victory is clear—grappling, control time, and submissions. While his striking is sloppy and leaves questions about his chin, Ulanbekov thrives in positions where he can impose his grappling, particularly by taking the back and becoming a "human backpack." This style has proven difficult for less experienced fighters to deal with, and Ulanbekov’s team, part of the Dagestani wrestling machine, will undoubtedly have him prepared for Carpenter. While Ulanbekov maybe underestimated on feet, his grappling credentials and ability to wear opponents down over the course of a fight make him a formidable challenge.
For Carpenter to win, he’ll need to keep the fight standing as much as possible, capitalize on his striking advantage, and possibly mix in submission threats to keep Ulanbekov cautious. However, with his lack of experience and Ulanbekov’s ability to chain wrestle and control opponents, it’s hard to envision Carpenter staying off his back for extended periods. Ulanbekov will likely look to exploit any gaps in Carpenter’s grappling defense and take the fight to his favorite positions, where he can tire Carpenter out and neutralize his striking.
Ultimately, while Carpenter has some paths to victory, I think the fight will play out in Ulanbekov’s favor. His experience and grappling style should allow him to either secure a submission or rack up enough control time to win a decision. Carpenter has the tools to pose challenges, particularly in the striking department, but Ulanbekov’s relentless grappling and positional dominance will likely be too much for the young prospect to overcome. Expect Ulanbekov to get the win, likely via decision or submission after wearing Carpenter down over three rounds.