Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 11/1/24
A great week of results last week and a terrible one this week. Let’s look to finish on a high note as we look to the ATP’s Rolex Paris Masters and the quarterfinal round. My first look is in the day’s opening match on Centre Court in Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Tsitsipas’ win probability is only 33%, while Zverevis favored to win at 1.43 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.5.
Jon Reid’s Zverev vs Tsitsipas prediction is for Zverev to cover the handicap.
Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction: Big German at a Big Advantage in Quicker Conditions Against Poor Returning Tsitsipas
- Prediction: Zverev -2.5 Games
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: Pinnacle
- Stakes: 5/10
Odds updated at 11:30 pm UK Time on October 31st, 2024.
I was burned yesterday by Zverev on this same number against Arthur Fils. Thing is, you can’t let tough losses affect future match handicaps. Let’s look at a few things that make me think this handicap is bad.
First, Zverev had his chances to get that match done in straight sets. He had break points in return games throughout the second set and couldn’t take any. He was the better player throughout, especially on return. That should be the same case in this match, in conditions where Tsitsipas really struggles against strong servers on return.
Secondly, Fils is a much tougher opponent than Tsitsipas on a quick court. His game is built for them and he’s had far more success in 2024 in quicker conditions. All that and yet Zverev was still close to covering this handicap against him.
Finally, I think we’re seeing an overvaluation on Tsitsipas after wins against Roberto Carballes Baena, a slumping Alejandro Tabilo getting worse by the week and Francisco Cerundolo. He needed three sets against each of the out-and-out clay courters (Carballes Baena and Cerundolo) to boot. In other words, the path has been easy and I think he’s getting a bit too much respect for those victories in the pricing here.
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Alexander Zverev Recent Form
I think some were concerned about Zverev’s revelation that he had been dealing with pneumonia a few weeks back and losses to David Goffin and Lorenzo Musetti have sparked some overreactions in the betting markets.
This week he’s taken down two strong servers with aggressive games in Tallon Griekspoor and Fils, and this is arguably the least talented quick hard courter of the trio that he’s played.
He doesn’t look physically compromised on court and he’s generated far more chances on return in both matches this week, even if he’s only covered the -2.5 games once. There’s no reason that won’t continue.
I have this handicap at at least -3.5 and I could make a case for -4 being the correct number. Either way, that means there’s plenty of value on the -2.5 handicap here.
Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form
I went over the fairly soft path Tsitsipas has had to reach this point earlier. Needing three sets in a few of those matches isn’t the most inspiring either.
He has played his contemporary fairly tough in the past, even beating Zverev here last year, but a lot can happen in the span of a year in the world of tennis. Just ask any of the top players these days. They’ll tell you how many tournaments there are (despite the fact that most of them don’t play any of the 250 weeks).
Tsitsipas has been dreadful for the most part on hard courts since the summer and even when he’s won matches, he hasn’t looked great doing it. He’s at a huge disadvantage on the backhand wing, where he’s rushed easily on hard courts and his opponent here has one of the best backhands in men’s tennis.
It also begs the question, how is he going to get any sort of depth on the return of serve if Zverev lands as many first serves as he typically does and is smart enough to target that one-handed backhand?
Sure, he should be able to rush Zverev’s forehand, but he’ll have to hope Zverev doesn’t get the timing down and into a rhythm on that side, otherwise, he could be in trouble.
Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas H2H – Stat of the Match
Tsitsipas has a 10-5 lead all time in this matchup, but if we look at hard court matches in the last three seasons, we have a 1-1 score with Tsitsipas winning here a year ago and Zverev avenging that loss down under at the United Cup.
Now, clay results are poor comparisons as a general rule, but with someone whose results are so polar based on the surface like Tsitsipas, they’re even less relevant.
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