Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 11th

It’s still just the one tournament on the ATP Tour from Monaco to turn to this week for previews. Let’s take a look at what may be the match of the day in Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas. Tsitsipas’ win probability is just a tick under 50% at 49.5% while Zverev is favored to win at 1.87 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 23.5. Our Zverev vs Tsitsipas prediction is for Tsitsipas to win.

Zverev vs Tsitsipas Prediction: Tsitsipas Undervaluation Continues Into Thursday

• Prediction: Tsitsipas to win
• Best Odds: 2.02
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as of 1:30 am UK Time on April 11th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Despite showing an unbelievable level of tennis against some quality opposition in the opening rounds of play at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Tsitsipas continues to be disrespected by my estimation at the first clay Masters event of the season.

He had a few games where he lost his top-level against Laslo Djere, but other than that he’s swept the Serbian and Tomas Martin Etcheverry aside.

Is Zverev a different level of opponent? Of course. On clay, however, I do think he loses a lot of the edge he has on the Greek on other surfaces and I’m happy to back the two-time Monte Carlo champion as an underdog in conditions perfect for his game.

You can find more previews on the expert insights page.

Alexander Zverev Recent Form

I don’t think there’s much to complain about for the German when it comes to form. He made at least the quarterfinals at both Masters events in March in Indian Wells and Miami and dispatched Sebastian Ofner with relative ease in his first match here.

He has, however, struggled with some of the better players he’s come up against. Carlos Alcaraz got him in California, while Grigor Dimitrov executed a simple, but flawless game plan to take him out in Miami.

Tsitsipas may not be playing like a top-5 guy from an overall standpoint, but doubt his clay court bona fides at your peril. He’s still a top-5 clay courter in my mind and his game matches up decently in these conditions with Zverev.

I think Zverev has established himself as one of the better players in the world, but his game does have its weaknesses and I don’t know if I’d have him as the favorite, even a slight one, in this contest.

Stefanos Tsitsipas Recent Form

Being able to distinguish between Tsitsipas’ abilities on clay courts and other surfaces is why we’re able to take advantage of some poor pricing on his initial matches this spring.

The 25-year-old may not have played up to his standard for the first portion of the season, but there are few players at the top of the game with a larger gulf between their abilities on slow clay and quicker courts. In his two matches so far on the dirt, he’s won 21 of the 26 games he’s played.

Those guys may not have been Zverev, but they’re no scrubs themselves. Having more time on return and to set up his backhands makes a world of difference for him and I have no reason to believe that he’s going to do anything but run deep in Monte Carlo, Rome, and Paris in the coming months.

Alexander Zverev vs Stefanos Tsitsipas H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have met 14 times in the past, with Tsitsipas winning nine of those encounters. He holds an even more impressive 4-1 edge on the dirt, with Zverev only getting him back in Madrid in 2022. That’s worth noting, because of the matches played at tournaments on slower clay (Monte Carlo, Rome, and the French Open), Tsitsipas is 3-0 with one dominant win and two that were much closer but still saw him look much more effective.

Now, that is only applicable if there’s a reason why Tsitsipas may benefit from conditions slowing down. With Zverev’s first serve and the one-handed backhand of Tsitsipas, you can see why that is. In altitude, the big serve can rush the one-hander much more effectively. His elite backhand can also trouble Tsitsipas in cross-court exchanges.

Move to slower conditions and that advantage is lessened considerably. Throw in the huge forehand advantage for Tsitsipas only growing thanks to his heavier shot making it even tougher for Zverev, whose forehand can get wonky and become error-prone, and you’ve got a recipe for a Tsitsipas victory.

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