Zverev Holding Value: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 5/15/24

Our second preview of the day from the men’s quarterfinals at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia features Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz. Jon Reid’s Zverev vs Fritz prediction is available below!

Fritz’s win probability is 42.4% for this contest. while Zverev is favored to win at 1.65 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games, with the total games line set at 23.5.

Jon Reid’s Zverev vs Fritz prediction is available below!

Zverev vs Fritz Prediction: Zverev Has Too Much Going in His Favour 

• Prediction: Zverev to win, Zverev -2 Games & Zverev -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.65, 2.01 & 2.16
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10, 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on May 15th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

I have a small futures bet on Zverev to win this event, but that’s not going to stop me from doubling down on the big German to come through this match, covering a handicap that is at least a full game too low per my numbers.

I understand Fritz has looked better on clay this year, but in a sport based on matchups, I don’t love him against someone like Zverev.

The world No. 5 can match his first serve, is the rare opponent who can outplay him on the backhand side, is much more natural on clay courts and slower courts and he’s the much better mover than Fritz on this particular surface.

Not a whole lot pointing to Fritz other than from entering the tournament. Perhaps that’s enough for Fritz who may be feeling it, but I can’t get past all the different aspects here pointing to the better player.

Finally, this being a night match should only serve to slow things down even more. Fritz has proven himself in medium-slow conditions on hard courts, but even a marginal drop in court speed thanks to evening conditions in the night session has to favor Zverev more than the American as well. My Zverev vs Fritz prediction is for Zverev to win and cover the handicap!

Head over to the expert insights for my other preview of the ATP quarterfinal action for Wednesday.

Alexander Zverev Recent Form

Zverev had a tough start to his clay season, going down to an elite clay courter (and eventual champion) in Stefanos Tsitsipas at the Monte Carlo Masters. His Madrid Masters also ended at the hands of a player who was unbelievable on the day, as Francisco Cerundolo played his best match of the year.

He’s used Rome to course-correct ahead of Roland Garros though. He demolished a poor clay courter in his opening match in the Italian capital, before getting past a surging, talented young gun from Italy in Luciano Darderi and then a solid Nuno Borges who is having a career season in 2024.

He had a lopsided set in each of those outings to boot, which is somewhat inspiring when we’re giving up a start in two of our bets. Now, those opponents are not Fritz, especially on serve, where Fritz will be much tougher to break, but covering handicaps consistently is reassuring, even if it doesn’t bear much relevance.

Give me the better player, better clay courter, and a guy who can match the American in the areas he usually has an advantage over his competition.

Taylor Fritz Recent Form

The man they affectionately call “Claylor” has certainly played some decent tennis on the dirt to this point in 2024, but is he ready to beat one of the best players in the game on a surface that is still his second (or third best)?

He should be given credit for racking up 10 wins to this point on the clay swing, but with Madrid’s altitude playing well to his serve and an uninspiring run of opponents to this stage in Rome (the best being Grigor Dimitrov who isn’t a clay courter and who was carrying a pair of injuries entering that matchup), I’m not sure we’ve seen him beat someone of Zverev’s caliber on the dirt just yet.

Should he win this one, there is no doubt that a sea-level Masters 1000 semifinal with a win over Zverev would be enough to merit that “Claylor” designation!

Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz H2H – Stat of the Match

Seven prior meetings between these two have seen Zverev win four, with his counterpart notching three victories.

The last match played in slower conditions to look at? Indian Wells three years ago. That one ended in a third-set tiebreak. About as close as it can get and now over three years ago.

Fritz has kept things close in the past, and that could be why the market seems to like him here, but this is their first meeting on clay – a surface that surely skews things more in Zverev’s favor than Fritz’s.

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