Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, June 5th

For our second preview of the day, we head back to the French Open, where we have the final quarterfinal matchup of the tournament. Let’s look at Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur. Our Zverev vs de Minaur prediction at 1.92 and 1.87 odds is available below. 

De Minaur is only expected to win 32.8%, while Zverev is favored to win at 1.43 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 37.5.

Zverev vs de Minaur Prediction: Games Handicap Off By At Least One Game

• Prediction: Zverev -4.5 Games & Zverev -1.5 Sets
• Best Odds: 1.92 & 1.87
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 3/10

Odds as at 1:00 am UK Time on June 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

For a slow clay court, this handicap is at least a game off where it should be and I have it off by a bit more than that.

First, let’s look at why people may be overvaluing the Australian in this spot. The obvious answer is that he beat Daniil Medvedev last round and beat him comprehensively after dropping the first set. The issue? Medvedev had issues with blisters and potentially his shoulder and from the *2-3 game in the second set, he was putrid. I think we’re seeing the market give de Minaur a lot of credit for beating an injured opponent in a match he was trailing until the medical timeout. Not to mention, Medvedev isn’t the clay court opponent Zverev is.

Secondly, it could also be that Zverev has played back-to-back five-setters. That is certainly something that could affect players that aren’t as solid physically as Zverev, but the total time on court across the four days playing Tallon Griekspoor and Holger Rune was under nine hours, meaning with another day off to recover, I struggle to see how one can just expect him to break down – even against de Minaur.

Ultimately, this isn’t as tough of an opponent for Zverev as the last round was on clay. It’s a tougher opponent than last round for de Minaur, yet the price here is fairly similar to what it was for each of them last time out. We haven’t seen the requisite adjustment for the talent discrepancy in this matchup.

With the second quarterfinal cancelled after Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal, we have a bonus grass court tennis preview from the Challenger level on the expert insights page. Our Zverev vs de Minaur prediction is for Zverev to cover the game and set handicaps.

Alexander Zverev Recent Form

There are very few people playing as well as Zverev at the moment. The big-serving German won the Masters in Rome and has backed it up with a second-week appearance at Roland Garros. It hasn’t been smooth sailing this week, but the world No. 4 is still alive and in with a chance to claim his first major trophy.

His game is well suited to most surfaces, with his rock-solid backhand, massive first serve, and incredible ability to defend from the baseline.

The forehand can be wobbly at times, but I’m not sure that de Minaur has enough on his groundstrokes to cut through the slower courts and rush that forehand into unforced errors.

That should give Zverev a surface edge, and service edge and mask his primary weakness.

Alex de Minaur Recent Form

As I mentioned in our preview last round, de Minaur has certainly worked to improve his clay court game and this year has seen his post better results than years past.

That said, his lone win against players among the very best came last round against Medvedev on his worst surface and there’s a strong likelihood he needed Medvedev to be injured to get the job done.

There are very few that are more solid from the baseline than the 25-year-old, but he also lacks the weapons to be able to generate a lot of offense on slower courts, and it’s why he’s struggled so much up to this point on clay courts.

If he was playing someone less natural on the surface or a bit more error prone, I’d be higher on his chances. Zverev just seems like a pretty poor matchup for him.

Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur H2H – Stat of the Match

Zverev leads the series 7-2, with him winning both prior meetings this season in three sets. Those were on more favorable hard courts for de Minaur though and even in those matches, Zverev managed to win by at least three games in each of those best-of-three set matches.

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