Yosuke Watanuki vs Arthur Gea Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/10/25

Our first preview of the week comes from one of the three ATP 250s going on. It’s Yosuke Watanuki vs Arthur Gea from the Open 13 Provence in Marseille, France.

Gea’s getting plenty of respect, with his win probability at just over 45%, while Watanuki is favoured to win at 1.69 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Watanuki vs Gea prediction is for Watanuki to win.

Yosuke Watanuki vs Arthur Gea Prediction: Big, Aggressive Game Should Propel Watanuki to Victory

• Prediction: Watanuki to win
• Best Odds: 1.73
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 9:30 pm UK Time on February 9th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I was hesitant to believe in the world No. 340 in the first round of qualifying, seeing as he’s had injury issues for a while and his play was uninspiring to start the year.

His win in the opening round was a convincing one, albeit against more of a clay courter, and his game is one that should be well-suited to the indoor courts in the south of France.

I’m not totally back in on him yet, but I clearly believe in him more against a youngster that still has a lot to prove than the market is. His ranking is deceiving because of the injury issues, and in my mind he has the game of a top-50 indoor hard court player right now. Just on that alone – even if you have some concerns about his current form – you have to think that 1.73 presents value and a good opportunity to buy low on the stock of a solid quick hard court player.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Yosuke Watanuki Recent Form

This section is the one that probably has the market doubting the 26-year-old Japan international a bit. He may be 4-1 on the season, but all four wins came against guys that prefer slower conditions and clay courts, while his loss was to an ITF level player and he has a walkover likely due to physical issues on the resume as well.

I’m not going to make the case he’s playing some brilliant tennis or anything as I think that holding up a 4-1 record would be disingenuous, but I certainly think that he’s played well enough and has started to show he may be rounding into form that in conditions favourable to his game he has to be bet at these odds.

If he can find a break of serve or two against Gea, he should be able to sail to victory.

Arthur Gea Recent Form

As much of a promising prospect as the 20-year-old is, I’m not sure I’m ready to trust him against someone that in relatively quick conditions indoors is a very solid player.

Gea has racked up plenty of wins down on the ITF Tour and against a player of weaker Challenger Tour opponents, but against the three best players he’s gone up against, he’s lost by a minimum of three games, with two of the three losses being by 5+ games.

He’s said himself that he does still need to work on adding a bit more strength and power to his game, which is likely what’s separating him from some of the better players on the lower circuits.

I tend to believe Gea has a bright future and that against lesser opposition he can be undervalued enough to back. Against a strong quick court player with a huge serve and forehand combination though? He cannot be given this much respect by the betting markets just yet, so I’ll oppose him in this contest.

Yosuke Watanuki vs Arthur Gea H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time these two have squared off against one another at the professional level.

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