Walton vs Wong Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/24/25

We’re into the second week of the ATP Masters at the Miami Open. To kick things off, it’s an unlikely Adam Walton vs Coleman Wong third round tilt that piques the interest.

Wong’s win probability is only 37%, while Walton is favoured to win at 1.52 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 23.

Jon Reid’s Walton vs Wong prediction is for Walton to cover the games handicap.

Adam Walton vs Coleman Wong Prediction: Solidity of Walton Key Against Volatile Opponent

• Prediction: Walton -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.02
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:45 am UK Time on March 24th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Talk about taking advantage of opportunities. Neither of these gentlemen would be in a position to reach the final 16 of the Miami Open’s main draw without a decent amount of good luck.

In Walton’s case, it’s the fact that he lost in qualifying, but ended up getting a spot as a lucky loser – and one that bypassed the first round as he replaced a seed, no less. For Wong, his ranking wouldn’t even have been sufficient to make it into the qualifying draw. The powerful, but incredibly erratic man from Hong Kong received a wild card and has made the most of his chance as well.

Here’s the deal for me in this match. The Australian has proven a bit more on the Challenger Tour in his career, is less vulnerable on serve in medium to quicker conditions and is proficient at prolonging baseline exchanges – something that often yields positive results against the error prone firepower of Wong.

Sure, there’s a chance that Wong hits him off the court, but in the instances where Walton does win, it’s incredibly likely that it’ll be in fairly straightforward fashion, with Wong not the best at problem solving within matches.

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Adam Walton Recent Form

The 25-year-old has had a pretty decent start to his year, with a lot of victories amassed against players you would expect him to beat. I think one of his lone blemishes was actually that qualifying loss to his countryman Tristan Schoolkate – though Schoolkate did play some great tennis in the first round of the main draw as well and played a fairly respectable match against Felix Auger Aliassime after that.

Against fellow Challenger opposition, I’m not going to hold many performances against him. He tends to find ways to hold serve without possessing the most powerful of games and his solidity from the baseline sets him apart from many on the lower circuit.

I use that as a comparison because despite this being the third round of a Masters tournament, he’s playing a guy that plies his trade almost entirely on the Challenger scene.

Coleman Wong Recent Form

Though he’s one of the stories of the tournament to this point, Wong hasn’t had much success this season outside of the first two matches he’s played here.

In fact, his two wins in Miami represent over 25% of his total wins on the professional circuits in 2025, despite it only being one of the nine tournaments he’s played.

It’s been a lot of losses and early ones at that prior to the wins against Daniel Altmaier and Ben Shelton.

Even those wins should be taken with a grain of salt. Altmaier is a slow court player by nature and Shelton simply doesn’t have the tactical or return chops to blow players out yet. Put him on a quicker court against someone with firepower and he’ll almost always play a match that ends up being closer than it should be.

The Cinderella Story may continue here, but this is probably a tougher matchup for him in a season where consistent success has been non-existent.

Adam Walton vs Coleman Wong H2H – Stat of the Match

Wong does have the advantage of having beaten Walton 6-4, 6-4 in Thailand last year at a Challenger tournament.That was one of the rare redline events we see on occasion from Wong. We’ll see if he can replicate that result again on Monday in South Florida.

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