Marketa Vondrousova vs Anastasia Potapova Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, April 18th

There hasn’t been a whole lot of value this week from the WTA 500 Porsche Tennis Grand Prix in Stuttgart. Our Vondrousova vs Potapova prediction does seem like an intriguing matchup to bet on Thursday though.

Potapova’s win probability is only 38% while Vondrousova is favored to win at 1.50 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 21.

Our Vondrousova vs Potapova prediction is for Vondrousova to cover the 3.5-game handicap.

Vondrousova vs Potapova Prediction: Vondrousova Return Prowess Perfect Matchup Against Underwhelming Potapova Serve

• Prediction: Vondrousova -3.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 2:00 am UK Time on April 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

The matchup doesn’t favor the weak server (despite Potapova having plenty of power from the baseline) and “she did well here last year” simply isn’t enough for me to make up for matchup disadvantages and relatively poor form to this point in the season.

Read on for more expert insights.

Marketa Vondrousova Recent Form

Outside of the fact that she hasn’t played a whole lot and a choke of epic proportions in Dubai, Vondrousova has been playing some pretty great tennis this year.

While the sample may be small, she is now 4-1 since the start of Dubai with a walkover given to Marta Kostyuk in Indian Wells and she has covered this handicap in each of those four victories. Now, perhaps she’s playing someone much better this goes around or someone that she matches up poorly with, and that’s why the handicap is only 3.5 games.

That isn’t the case though. Vondrousova has played Potapova well in the past, and her elite return game is well-positioned to succeed against the relatively weak serve of Potapova. Her rally tolerance and ability to work the outer thirds of the court should also help her wait out mistakes from Potapova who doesn’t play with much margin from the baseline and when hitting her shots on the run loses even more of that margin for error.

The lone loss in recent times to Sorana Cirstea was actually from 6-2, 5-1 up as well and would’ve likely made for another win that covered the 3.5 games had she closed it out.

Give me the defending Wimbledon champion who has proven herself plenty both in quick conditions and on clay (the unique combination for Stuttgart conditions-wise).

Anastasia Potapova Recent Form

Potapova has made decent runs in Indian Wells and Linz this year and that’s about it. Even there, her wins came against clay courters on hard courts (other than Lin Zhu) or underpowered competition (Marie Bouzkova).

She’s lacked ruthlessness in plenty of wins, has been error-prone this season and the serve has looked far too vulnerable, far too often.

In the first round in Stuttgart, she needed three sets to beat one of the players whose been even more erratic than her and in even poorer form Ludmilla Samsonova.

I’m just not impressed with the form, quality of competition, or lack of consistency from the Russian so far.

Marketa Vondrousova vs Anastasia Potapova H2H – Stat of the Match

As I alluded to above, Vondrousova has played Potapova tough, leading the series 3-1. She’s also won in a rather lopsided fashion in all three of those matches.

While Potapova is looking to defend a fair amount of points this week, she’s going to be in tough in her campaign to do so on Thursday.

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