Andrea Vavassori vs Dimitar Kuzmanov Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 2/11/25

Our first match preview of the day is from Bahrain on the ATP Challenger Tour. Let’s look more at the Andrea Vavassori vs Dimitar Kuzmanov match.

Kuzmanov’s win probability is 44%, while Vavassori is favoured to win at 1.57 odds. The handicap is 2.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Jon Reid’s Vavassori vs Kuzmanov prediction is for Vavassori to cover the handicap.

Andrea Vavassori vs Dimitar Kuzmanov Prediction: Vavassori Undervalued Once Again

• Prediction: Vavassori -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 5:00 am UK Time on February 11th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I have no idea why we continue to see Vavassori rated so lowly by the market. Last week he was an incredible longshot to defeat Felix Auger Aliassime and managed to keep Auger Aliassime close, before leveling the match before the Canadian retired.

Prior to that, he was undervalued in Rotterdam qualifying. Now, he’s barely a favourite against a guy on the decline who is better on hard courts and has been so poor in the last year or so that his ranking has tumbled outside of the top-300.

I don’t think Kuzmanov has the advantage in the firepower department, he certainly doesn’t have the edge in form and he’s not a hard courter by trade. There isn’t much to like here to justify a win probability over 40%.

Even looking to oppose Vavassori coming from Europe doesn’t make much sense when he’s had nearly a week to get to Bahrain and get accustomed to the courts and conditions.

Andrea Vavassori Recent Form

Vavassori’s ranking dropped as well, and though he only played about 60% as many tournaments as Kuzmanov in 2024, he’s still ranked slightly higher than his opponent on the day.

The end of his season wasn’t great and seemingly filled with injuries as three of his last four tournaments of the 2024 season were majors and the Olympics – tournaments players won’t miss if they aren’t seriously physically compromised.

Now looking healthier once more, Vavassori does appear to have enough left in his game to perhaps make another push back to where he was once ranked. The net rushing and more one dimensional service game isn’t as effective anymore, but it should be enough to get the job done in this particular match.

Dimitar Kuzmanov Recent Form

Perhaps losing just three games in two qualifying matches has the market high on Kuzmanov, but with the Bulgarian having played two absolute no names to earn his spot in the main draw, I’m not going to give him too much credit.

Last year he tried to play some weaker Challenger fields at the end of the season to build form, picking up about 20% of his victories for the season in the last two weeks of November in Mexican Challengers.

I just don’t consider him a strong Challenger player anymore, and am looking to oppose him in this spot with someone I think the market is off in assessing.

Andrea Vavassori vs Dimitar Kuzmanov H2H – Stat of the Match

Vavassori and Kuzmanov have yet to play one another in professional tennis.

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