Botic van de Zandschulp vs Marcos Giron Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 10/15/24

Our first preview for Tuesday comes from the ATP’s European Open. It’s Botic van de Zandschulp vs Marcos Giron.

Giron’s win probability sits at 50%, while van de Zandschulp is favoured to win at 1.89 odds. The handicap is 0.5 games and the total games line is 23.

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Jon Reid’s van de Zandschulp vs Giron prediction is for Giron to win.

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Marcos Giron Prediction: Back Giron in Quick Conditions

• Prediction: Giron to win
• Best Odds: 2.02
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds updated at 6:45 am UK Time on October 15th, 2024. 

Ever since the win against Carlos Alcaraz in New York City, people are ready to believe in van de Zandschulp again. I’m not part of that crowd. Sure, he has a few qualifying wins (in Tokyo) and won a match in Shanghai, but among those he beat were two guys still working their way back after prolonged absences from the tour and a younger player who can be overwhelmed when playing on quicker courts.

Giron has also had his issues with losses, but I’ve tended to be more impressed when he plays on quick courts, as even in losses he tends to keep things close with strong players.

I have him as the favorite here, winning well over 50% of the time, so there’s pretty clear value in backing him in my eyes.

Botic van de Zandschulp Recent Form

Though he played well against Tomas Martin Etcheverry in a loss in Shanghai, his loss to Matteo Berrettini in Tokyo didn’t offer up much resistance. As I alluded to earlier, he hasn’t beaten many strong players.

His wins over Pablo Carreno Busta and Yosuke Watanuki were not comfortable until they broke down physically (he narrowly won the opening set against the former and trailed 2-6 against the later), and beating Luca Nardi is not that impressive on quicker courts.

Other than that, it’s been the norm for him to struggle against tour-level competition.

I’m not sure why the more error-prone player here would be seen as the favorite. Does the upset of the season really carry that much water with bettors?

I don’t think either player should be a big favorite, as the conditions are quick and that lends itself to closer matches. If someone is going to be a slight favourite though, it certainly shouldn’t be the No. 68.

Marcos Giron Recent Form

Giron has had a lot of poor stretches to his season, but when faced with draws that haven’t been as talent-packed, he’s fared pretty well.

He prefers quicker courts and does well at ATP 250 level tournaments. Those two criteria are both met by the event in Antwerp.

The courts have played pretty quickly and with three tournaments going on this week, the field is fairly diluted (the top seeds either haven’t played since the U.S. Open or aren’t at their best on quick hard courts).

We saw Giron win the title in Newport after Wimbledon and earlier in the year he made the final in Dallas. Even in slightly slower conditions, he managed to make a semifinal run in Delray Beach. So even if they’ve slowed down the courts a tad, I don’t mind backing the 31-year-old having a breakout season in this spot. Especially since his opponent has been really poor this year with error-riddled matches.

Botic van de Zandschulp vs Marcos Giron H2H – Stat of the Match

Giron has won the lone hard court match and the grass court match these two have contested. The one win van de Zandschulp managed came last year in Munich, on the clay.

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