Ugo Humbert vs Dominic Stricker Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 12/27/24

I was hoping for qualifying draws in Brisbane and Hong Kong to be out in time for Friday’s articles so I could do some lookahead previews, as the edges in those types of fields are greater than the United Cup matches, but the team format will have to do until next week.

The next match we’ll look at on the ATP side is Ugo Humbert vs Dominic Stricker.

Stricker’s win probability is under 20%, while Ugo is favoured to win at staggeringly expensive 1.20 odds. The handicap is 4.5 games and the total games line is 21.5.

Jon Reid’s Humbert vs Stricker prediction is for the first set to be relatively close.

Ugo Humbert vs Dominic Stricker Prediction: Big Hitting Lefties Should Make for Great Viewing

• Prediction: 1st Set Over 9.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on December 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Me backing the younger of the two lefties in this matchup comes down to both me doubting Humbert and his ranking of 14 with his less-than-reliable style, and my belief in Stricker’s big, powerful game being undervalued after a head-scratching poor season that was derailed by an injury he never really seemed to be able to shake off form wise.

The Swiss is another player I’m optimistic will benefit from an offseason and fresh start to 2025. Yes, it’s an assumption, but I’d much rather back a talented player with big weapons on a quicker court (this tie is in Sydney, rather than the slightly slower Perth) at a price over 5.00 than someone with the same question marks in the 2.75 range. It’s a much lower-risk proposition in the long run.

Regardless of the final outcome, I’m looking forward to potential fireworks in this all-lefty matchup.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Ugo Humbert Recent Form

There’s no real recent form for players inside the top-25, as most have been off for well over a month now, but the 26-year-old Frenchman did end 2024 strong. It was a hot-and-cold finish as the lefty’s low-margin, low-net clearance style tends to produce.

He won the 500 tournament in Tokyo, before being sent packing early in both Shanghai and Basel as a substantial favourite. His season finale? Reaching the final on home soil in Paris in front of raucous French crowds before going out with a whimper against world No. 2 Alexander Zverev.

He has a huge serve, moves decently for someone his height and he can hit some cracking forehands. The problem is, because his balls are so flat, they often don’t clear the net by much. That means that if he’s even slightly off, the errors can pour from his racquet.

It’s why I’m not a big fan of betting on him when he’s priced like this. It’s not always profitable to bet against him in this spot. With the right opponent that can rack up holds and take the game to him on a quick court though, there are markets that are sure to present some value.

Dominic Stricker Recent Form

I alluded to Stricker’s 2024 struggles earlier and his season was not pretty. The lone bright spot was his quarterfinal run in Stockholm that saw him beat a few serve-oriented players (which he’ll come up against again here) and then a deep run at an ITF tournament before looking exhausted at the beginning of the month.

I don’t trust him to be able to stick with Humbert, who to his credit is more fit, for an entire match, but he’s shown against players that don’t have the most proficient return game that he can keep things close for a while.

I’ll back him to find enough holds of serve early on to get this first set over across the line.

Ugo Humbert vs Dominic Stricker H2H – Stat of the Match

These two have only met once, back in the quick conditions of Basel, where Humbert was actually pushed to a third set by Stricker, before the young gun ran out of steam in 2023.

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