Carabelli Shines against Spaniard: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, 5/21/24

With rain likely to be a problem at the ATP events this week, we’ll look once again to the French Open for our men’s previews on Tuesday. For the first bet, let’s break down the Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles contest. Our Ugo Carabelli vs Zapata Miralles prediction is available below!

Zapata Miralles’ win probability is 45.9%, while Ugo Carabelli is favored to win at 1.70 odds. The handicap is 1.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

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Ugo Carabelli vs Zapata Miralles Prediction: Argentine to Get Better of Spaniard in Clash of Clay Courters

• Prediction: Ugo Carabelli to win & Ugo Carabelli -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.70 & 1.97
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 am UK Time on May 21st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

The recent struggles of Ugo Carabelli seem to be distorting this market a bit more than they should. He’s had a few tough draws against some in-form and talented players. With his lack of offense, he’s somewhat prone to not having the match on his racquet.

He is a very strong clay courter though, playing relentless defensive tennis and working the ball around the court with aplomb. He also employs a fair amount of spin, so even if he isn’t hitting through his opponents, his shots can be tougher to attack without committing an error.

The other part of this handicap is that Zapata Miralles has been relatively poor himself and without any real weapons at his disposal either, he should have a pretty tough time breaking down the solid play of his counterpart. Our Ugo Carabelli vs Zapata Miralles prediction is for Carabelli to win and cover the 2-game handicap.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli Recent Form

The Argentinian is a pretty solid example of how much tougher fields in Europe can be when it comes to clay events relative to South America.

After cleaning up on his home continent, winning two Challenger tournaments, reaching the semifinals of another, and making the second round at tour level in Buenos Aires as a qualifier, Ugo Carabelli is just 2-5 on the surface since arriving in Europe.

Now, as I frequently point out, context is everything when betting on this sport, and understanding who he lost to is key to finding an edge over the market in this match.

Brandon Nakashima has surged back into the top 100, Luciano Darderi is arguably the most in-form young clay courter in men’s tennis at the moment, Hamad Medjedovic is widely seen as one of the most talented young players overall in the sport and Daniel Galan can have his moments.

Not only are they all ranked above his opponent on Tuesday, but they all play with more aggression and power that can help them penetrate the defensive prowess of Ugo Carabelli.

I’m not sure I would hold his form against him as much as the market is in this scenario.

Bernabe Zapata Miralles Recent Form

As tough of a run as Ugo Carabelli has been on, it doesn’t compare to Zapata Miralles. The former top-40 player and main tour regular has slipped outside of the world’s top 200 in the rankings after failing to defend a chunk of points in Madrid and he’s won just nine matches on his preferred clay all season.

Even then, three of them were against injured players who had to retire during the match (two of which helped him reach the semis at a Challenger – his lone good result of the year) and another came against 18-year-old Charles Pilet, who has a total of six career professional matches to his name.

He desperately needs to find some form, or we’ll soon see him in qualifying draws at Challenger tournaments.

It’s not just about the form or poor play though. As mentioned, he doesn’t exactly have the requisite offense to his game to trouble Ugo Carabelli. That might be as big of a concern at the moment as his seeming inability to win matches.

Ugo Carabelli vs Zapata Miralles H2H – Stat of the Match

These two met a few weeks back with Ugo Carabelli winning 6-4, 6-4 in Madrid. The only other meeting also came on clay and was won by Zapata Miralles. That was seven years ago in an ITF tournament though.

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